predicted sports
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← Games Chase Field
SF logo
SF
San Francisco Giants
Mon, Jun 29
9:40 PM ET
AZ logo
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
50% Win Probability 50%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
AZ

“Word is Tyler Mahle's pitching for his job tonight after a rough season. Fade the struggling righty against AZ's ace Eduardo Rodriguez.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
AZ

“Chase Field's 10.3 expected total crushes the 9.5 line; Mahle's 4.69 FIP vs. Rodriguez's 4.82 xERA says regression is coming.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.13 · temp ×1.081 · expected total 10.3
SF starter Locked
Tyler Mahle
5.49 ERA · 8.8 K/9
starter 4.96 R/9 over ~5.2 ip
bullpen 4.67 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.88 runs
AZ starter Locked
Eduardo Rodriguez
2.27 ERA · 6.6 K/9
starter 3.10 R/9 over ~5.8 ip
bullpen 4.54 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.39 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
SF
6 games
9.3 avg runs
6
AZ

Team Data (season)

SFAZ
35-48Record41-42
4.06Runs / g4.22
4.66Runs allowed / g4.59
43%Scored first37%
31%Cover -1.533%
53%Cover +1.565%

Form & Market Trends

SF San Francisco Giants n 10/83/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 42% 50%
Cover -1.5 30% 31% 33%
Cover +1.5 70% 53% 69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 35% 39%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 45% 49%
Team over 4.5 30% 36% 41%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 31% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 45% 53%
Extra innings 0% 7% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 60% 42% 48%
Race to 4 30% 31% 43%
Race to 5 30% 30% 28%
Race to 6 20% 25% 26%
Race to 7 10% 17% 19%
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks n 10/83/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 49% 49%
Cover -1.5 30% 33% 36%
Cover +1.5 50% 65% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 40% 49%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 46% 57%
Team over 4.5 40% 45% 54%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 30% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 55% 57%
Extra innings 0% 7% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 40% 51%
Race to 4 40% 40% 43%
Race to 5 30% 35% 40%
Race to 6 30% 27% 30%
Race to 7 30% 19% 19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SF San Francisco Giants Confirmed

1 Matt Chapman R 0.760
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.266 0.821 14 105g
Hot (80°+) 0.282 0.945 14 49g
at Chase Field 0.200 0.650 1 12g
Overall 0.240 0.760 55 364g
2 Luis Arraez L 0.735
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.263 0.640 4 115g
Hot (80°+) 0.341 0.822 5 60g
at Chase Field 0.259 0.650 0 13g
Overall 0.305 0.735 15 392g
3 Casey Schmitt R 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.265 0.803 14 74g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.762 6 27g
at Chase Field 0.308 1.011 3 9g
Overall 0.261 0.755 34 210g
4 Rafael Devers L 0.836
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.220 0.690 14 107g
Hot (80°+) 0.304 0.984 21 78g
at Chase Field 0.195 0.556 1 10g
Overall 0.257 0.836 77 384g
5 Heliot Ramos R 0.746
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.287 0.857 16 89g
Hot (80°+) 0.271 0.790 9 51g
at Chase Field 0.333 1.023 3 13g
Overall 0.263 0.746 47 323g
6 Bryce Eldridge L 0.795
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.333 1.066 2 11g
Hot (80°+) 0.316 0.855 1 5g
at Chase Field 0.214 0.552 0 4g
Overall 0.250 0.795 6 51g
7 Victor Bericoto R 0.804
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.280 0.920 3 10g
Hot (80°+) no games
at Chase Field no games
Overall 0.250 0.804 3 17g
8 Eric Haase R 0.707
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.238 0.666 3 35g
Hot (80°+) 0.267 0.685 2 22g
at Chase Field 0.375 1.125 1 2g
Overall 0.231 0.707 11 84g
9 Jonah Cox R 0.833
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.176 0.471 0 10g
Hot (80°+) 0.000 0.000 0 2g
at Chase Field no games
Overall 0.292 0.833 1 19g

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks Confirmed

1 Ketel Marte S 0.879
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.274 0.873 55 232g
Hot (80°+) 0.314 0.995 26 82g
at Chase Field 0.286 0.867 32 170g
Overall 0.281 0.879 79 341g
2 Geraldo Perdomo S 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.785 20 240g
Hot (80°+) 0.217 0.649 3 82g
at Chase Field 0.293 0.798 6 173g
Overall 0.275 0.783 28 339g
3 Corbin Carroll L 0.825
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.243 0.810 50 268g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.879 16 90g
at Chase Field 0.276 0.914 34 190g
Overall 0.251 0.825 66 381g
4 Gabriel Moreno R 0.768
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.266 0.750 15 159g
Hot (80°+) 0.297 0.790 4 58g
at Chase Field 0.257 0.723 6 115g
Overall 0.276 0.768 20 236g
5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.244 0.688 26 200g
Hot (80°+) 0.235 0.654 9 70g
at Chase Field 0.236 0.681 20 147g
Overall 0.259 0.711 38 296g
6 Max Kepler L 0.679
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.232 0.679 23 193g
Hot (80°+) 0.212 0.658 10 57g
at Chase Field 0.067 0.133 0 4g
Overall 0.231 0.679 26 238g
7 Nolan Arenado R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.692 25 238g
Hot (80°+) 0.288 0.788 18 133g
at Chase Field 0.255 0.738 6 43g
Overall 0.253 0.693 36 337g
8 Pavin Smith L 0.794
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.242 0.782 16 131g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.841 3 25g
at Chase Field 0.246 0.745 7 86g
Overall 0.249 0.794 18 168g
9 Tommy Troy R 0.684
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.156 0.520 2 22g
Hot (80°+) 0.222 0.556 0 2g
at Chase Field 0.308 0.859 1 13g
Overall 0.228 0.684 3 30g

Injured List

SF (9 on IL)
AZ (10 on IL)