predicted sports
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LAA logo
LAA
Los Angeles Angels
Mon, Jun 29
9:40 PM ET
SEA logo
SEA
Seattle Mariners
40% Win Probability 60%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
SEA

“Word is George Kirby owns the Angels, and with no Mike Trout in the lineup, Seattle's ace has a clear runway against a rookie arm.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
SEA

“Kirby's 3.35 FIP and SEA's 4.8 sim runs crush LAA's 8.84 ERA SP; over 7.5 at 0.54 sim prob, park be damned.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.85 · temp ×0.970 · expected total 7.5
LAA starter Locked
Ryan Johnson
8.84 ERA · 7.0 K/9
starter 4.88 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 4.83 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.02 runs
SEA starter Locked
George Kirby
3.94 ERA · 7.9 K/9
starter 4.31 R/9 over ~5.9 ip
bullpen 3.96 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.46 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
LAA
3 games
6.7 avg runs
1
SEA

Team Data (season)

LAASEA
36-49Record42-43
4.54Runs / g4.02
4.96Runs allowed / g3.98
48%Scored first60%
32%Cover -1.535%
59%Cover +1.567%

Form & Market Trends

LAA Los Angeles Angels n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 60% 42% 44%
Cover -1.5 50% 32% 27%
Cover +1.5 70% 59% 57%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 47% 36%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 48% 56%
Team over 4.5 60% 42% 36%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 47% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 52% 57%
Extra innings 20% 13% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 41% 39%
Race to 4 40% 41% 39%
Race to 5 40% 34% 30%
Race to 6 20% 29% 23%
Race to 7 30% 24% 16%
SEA Seattle Mariners n 10/85/174
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 49% 55%
Cover -1.5 30% 35% 36%
Cover +1.5 60% 67% 69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 41% 43%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 20% 41% 50%
Team over 4.5 10% 39% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 38% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 54% 48%
Extra innings 0% 11% 13%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 47% 50%
Race to 4 10% 34% 45%
Race to 5 0% 31% 33%
Race to 6 0% 21% 28%
Race to 7 0% 15% 21%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

LAA Los Angeles Angels Confirmed

1 Zach Neto R 0.756
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.240 0.733 49 287g
Mild (60–80°) 0.249 0.777 50 260g
at T-Mobile Park 0.233 0.570 0 9g
Overall 0.246 0.756 66 365g
2 Denzer Guzman R 0.697
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.699 4 24g
Mild (60–80°) 0.223 0.646 4 26g
at T-Mobile Park 0.333 0.667 0 2g
Overall 0.239 0.697 5 30g
3 Nolan Schanuel L 0.716
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.730 24 279g
Mild (60–80°) 0.267 0.734 24 249g
at T-Mobile Park 0.294 0.782 0 5g
Overall 0.258 0.716 31 346g
4 Jorge Soler R 0.737
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.222 0.714 35 214g
Mild (60–80°) 0.247 0.784 31 197g
at T-Mobile Park 0.333 1.500 1 2g
Overall 0.230 0.737 45 289g
5 Wade Meckler L 0.780
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.284 0.790 2 27g
Mild (60–80°) 0.286 0.791 2 30g
at T-Mobile Park no games
Overall 0.283 0.780 2 33g
6 Jo Adell R 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.224 0.683 49 288g
Mild (60–80°) 0.226 0.696 44 269g
at T-Mobile Park 0.147 0.495 2 11g
Overall 0.230 0.711 68 366g
7 Oswald Peraza R 0.585
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.206 0.550 7 135g
Mild (60–80°) 0.215 0.594 9 120g
at T-Mobile Park 0.154 0.676 1 5g
Overall 0.211 0.585 13 185g
8 Josh Lowe L 0.657
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.224 0.667 26 213g
Mild (60–80°) 0.223 0.659 18 165g
at T-Mobile Park 0.318 0.984 2 6g
Overall 0.226 0.657 27 263g
9 Logan O'Hoppe R 0.662
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.225 0.637 32 246g
Mild (60–80°) 0.226 0.638 27 230g
at T-Mobile Park 0.211 0.687 1 6g
Overall 0.230 0.662 43 313g

SEA Seattle Mariners Confirmed

1 J.P. Crawford L 0.678
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.692 24 246g
Mild (60–80°) 0.224 0.638 18 224g
at T-Mobile Park 0.225 0.660 15 169g
Overall 0.234 0.678 32 341g
2 Julio Rodríguez R 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.266 0.752 48 286g
Mild (60–80°) 0.273 0.759 45 254g
at T-Mobile Park 0.242 0.693 28 196g
Overall 0.265 0.755 70 399g
3 Dominic Canzone L 0.776
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.813 30 187g
Mild (60–80°) 0.249 0.771 19 146g
at T-Mobile Park 0.247 0.747 13 116g
Overall 0.256 0.776 31 234g
4 Randy Arozarena R 0.726
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.229 0.694 36 288g
Mild (60–80°) 0.239 0.719 35 272g
at T-Mobile Park 0.230 0.733 25 147g
Overall 0.238 0.726 56 403g
5 Josh Naylor L 0.768
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.265 0.779 51 294g
Mild (60–80°) 0.272 0.779 40 254g
at T-Mobile Park 0.284 0.788 10 72g
Overall 0.267 0.768 62 399g
6 Cal Raleigh S 0.817
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.226 0.830 80 273g
Mild (60–80°) 0.236 0.836 70 241g
at T-Mobile Park 0.213 0.764 45 188g
Overall 0.226 0.817 107 377g
7 Cole Young L 0.642
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.653 9 122g
Mild (60–80°) 0.208 0.583 6 105g
at T-Mobile Park 0.224 0.630 4 81g
Overall 0.235 0.642 11 162g
8 Victor Robles R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.266 0.721 5 104g
Mild (60–80°) 0.288 0.740 5 106g
at T-Mobile Park 0.281 0.710 3 72g
Overall 0.272 0.693 5 162g
9 Colt Emerson L 0.732
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.200 0.685 4 24g
Mild (60–80°) 0.212 0.762 5 26g
at T-Mobile Park 0.170 0.618 3 16g
Overall 0.205 0.732 7 35g

Injured List

LAA (12 on IL)
SEA (7 on IL)