predicted sports
Games Stats Teams Players Explore
← Games Sutter Health Park
LAD logo
LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
5 - 3
Live
ATH logo
ATH
Athletics
39% Win Probability 61%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
LAD

“Word is the A's are excited about lefty Gage Jump, but the Dodgers' depth in these exhibitions is just too much to bet against.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
ATH

“ATH's 83% sim win probability in first-5 innings anchors a home edge; Lauer's 6.18 FIP and park factor 1.18 scream over.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.18 · temp ×1.045 · expected total 10.4
LAD starter Locked
Eric Lauer
4.87 ERA · 5.8 K/9
starter 4.55 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 4.03 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.31 runs
ATH starter Locked
Gage Jump
2.04 ERA · 8.9 K/9
starter 3.36 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 5.35 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.09 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head

No head-to-head meetings recorded this season.

Team Data (season)

LADATH
54-30Record40-44
5.27Runs / g4.61
3.46Runs allowed / g5.25
58%Scored first48%
48%Cover -1.531%
77%Cover +1.561%

Form & Market Trends

LAD Los Angeles Dodgers n 10/84/179
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 64% 59%
Cover -1.5 30% 48% 42%
Cover +1.5 80% 77% 73%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 55% 45%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 46% 51%
Team over 4.5 40% 46% 55%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 50% 47%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 48% 51%
Extra innings 0% 0% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 54% 53%
Race to 4 40% 52% 46%
Race to 5 30% 42% 44%
Race to 6 30% 35% 32%
Race to 7 20% 29% 24%
ATH Athletics n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 48% 47%
Cover -1.5 30% 31% 35%
Cover +1.5 50% 61% 60%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 45% 40%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 56% 55%
Team over 4.5 50% 48% 45%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 44% 44%
Run in 1st (RFI) 20% 55% 51%
Extra innings 10% 11% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 50% 46%
Race to 4 40% 42% 40%
Race to 5 30% 36% 36%
Race to 6 20% 29% 25%
Race to 7 30% 19% 18%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

LAD Los Angeles Dodgers Confirmed

1 Shohei Ohtani L 1.003
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.268 0.908 38 128g
Hot (80°+) 0.283 0.956 26 88g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.292 1.003 137 426g
2 Andy Pages R 0.734
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.271 0.760 15 116g
Hot (80°+) 0.254 0.756 14 80g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.256 0.734 57 379g
3 Freddie Freeman L 0.851
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.274 0.825 18 117g
Hot (80°+) 0.323 0.910 12 84g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.284 0.851 65 405g
4 Mookie Betts R 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.271 0.802 17 107g
Hot (80°+) 0.264 0.770 8 65g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.265 0.783 54 348g
5 Teoscar Hernández R 0.788
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.280 0.844 25 116g
Hot (80°+) 0.251 0.751 11 71g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.262 0.788 73 372g
6 Kyle Tucker L 0.839
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.253 0.798 13 82g
Hot (80°+) 0.281 0.904 10 50g
at Sutter Health Park 0.462 1.742 2 3g
Overall 0.263 0.839 53 302g
7 Max Muncy L 0.836
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.188 0.712 9 73g
Hot (80°+) 0.321 1.123 11 36g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.240 0.836 56 284g
8 Miguel Rojas R 0.718
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.316 0.820 8 109g
Hot (80°+) 0.265 0.698 1 66g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.271 0.718 16 283g
9 Dalton Rushing L 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.211 0.724 4 19g
Hot (80°+) 0.155 0.446 1 20g
at Sutter Health Park no games
Overall 0.221 0.681 13 103g

ATH Athletics Confirmed

1 Henry Bolte R 0.753
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.280 0.701 1 13g
Hot (80°+) 0.281 0.744 2 16g
at Sutter Health Park 0.321 0.786 1 17g
Overall 0.299 0.753 2 42g
2 Shea Langeliers R 0.806
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.263 0.828 23 90g
Hot (80°+) 0.254 0.823 25 93g
at Sutter Health Park 0.283 0.844 19 97g
Overall 0.255 0.806 79 336g
3 Nick Kurtz L 0.979
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.294 1.009 21 58g
Hot (80°+) 0.308 1.059 26 79g
at Sutter Health Park 0.292 1.038 31 94g
Overall 0.286 0.979 55 200g
4 Jonah Heim S 0.624
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.203 0.622 12 91g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.752 8 50g
at Sutter Health Park 0.191 0.751 4 16g
Overall 0.219 0.624 31 295g
5 Colby Thomas R 0.635
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.237 0.735 7 39g
Hot (80°+) 0.207 0.665 5 39g
at Sutter Health Park 0.220 0.693 5 40g
Overall 0.216 0.635 8 86g
6 Lawrence Butler L 0.726
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.227 0.661 8 86g
Hot (80°+) 0.260 0.836 25 111g
at Sutter Health Park 0.250 0.765 16 106g
Overall 0.238 0.726 48 353g
7 Max Muncy R 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.184 0.578 2 27g
Hot (80°+) 0.226 0.717 8 35g
at Sutter Health Park 0.224 0.659 6 46g
Overall 0.221 0.654 14 105g
8 Alika Williams R 0.617
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.203 0.594 0 26g
Hot (80°+) 0.286 0.794 1 20g
at Sutter Health Park 0.091 0.273 0 8g
Overall 0.238 0.617 1 64g
9 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer R
No prior game history.

Injured List

LAD (13 on IL)
ATH (9 on IL)