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MIA logo
MIA
Miami Marlins
2 - 0
Live
COL logo
COL
Colorado Rockies
60% Win Probability 40%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
MIA

“Word is the Rockies are throwing a rookie with an 8.00+ ERA at Sandy Alcantara. Don't overthink this one, even at Coors.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
MIA

“Coors at 89°F with a 12.3 env expected total vs 11.5 line screams over (70% sim). Alcantara's 3.81 xERA trumps Sullivan's 7.18 FIP; Marlins win.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.25 · temp ×1.051 · expected total 12.3
MIA starter Locked
Sandy Alcantara
4.01 ERA · 6.6 K/9
starter 4.38 R/9 over ~6.2 ip
bullpen 3.60 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.44 runs
COL starter Locked
Sean Sullivan
8.25 ERA · 5.2 K/9
starter 5.06 R/9 over ~4.5 ip
bullpen 5.43 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 6.90 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

3
MIA
3 games
5.7 avg runs
0
COL

Team Data (season)

MIACOL
44-40Record33-51
4.27Runs / g4.61
4.15Runs allowed / g5.67
49%Scored first40%
38%Cover -1.526%
63%Cover +1.554%

Form & Market Trends

MIA Miami Marlins n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 80% 52% 49%
Cover -1.5 60% 38% 35%
Cover +1.5 100% 63% 62%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 45% 36%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 51% 50%
Team over 4.5 40% 36% 44%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 36% 37%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 50% 51%
Extra innings 0% 5% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 60% 45% 41%
Race to 4 70% 48% 40%
Race to 5 40% 30% 32%
Race to 6 30% 24% 23%
Race to 7 10% 21% 15%
COL Colorado Rockies n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 39% 27%
Cover -1.5 20% 26% 15%
Cover +1.5 70% 54% 41%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 35% 25%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 60% 56%
Team over 4.5 50% 40% 30%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 42% 28%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 62% 55%
Extra innings 10% 6% 4%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 20% 40% 25%
Race to 4 20% 32% 15%
Race to 5 10% 24% 14%
Race to 6 10% 20% 14%
Race to 7 20% 21% 8%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIA Miami Marlins Confirmed

1 Otto Lopez R 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.243 0.621 6 103g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.659 4 62g
at Coors Field 0.276 0.792 1 7g
Overall 0.276 0.720 27 343g
2 Xavier Edwards S 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.274 0.675 4 80g
Hot (80°+) 0.329 0.858 3 52g
at Coors Field no games
Overall 0.298 0.757 10 293g
3 Esteury Ruiz R 0.752
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.200 0.739 5 31g
Hot (80°+) 0.235 0.588 0 11g
at Coors Field no games
Overall 0.232 0.752 7 97g
4 Heriberto Hernández R 0.741
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.214 0.679 6 51g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.681 3 27g
at Coors Field 0.600 1.914 1 3g
Overall 0.246 0.741 18 142g
5 Kyle Stowers L 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.224 0.636 3 63g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 0.949 8 48g
at Coors Field 0.471 1.294 1 4g
Overall 0.252 0.783 36 246g
6 Leo Jiménez R 0.554
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.183 0.507 1 39g
Hot (80°+) 0.182 0.574 3 22g
at Coors Field no games
Overall 0.201 0.554 5 113g
7 Jakob Marsee L 0.701
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.252 0.756 4 37g
Hot (80°+) 0.241 0.851 4 16g
at Coors Field 0.286 0.762 0 3g
Overall 0.237 0.701 9 137g
8 Javier Sanoja R 0.665
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.248 0.676 4 67g
Hot (80°+) 0.200 0.490 0 35g
at Coors Field 0.462 1.077 0 3g
Overall 0.247 0.665 8 199g
9 Joe Mack L 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.286 0.846 1 9g
Hot (80°+) 0.273 0.930 1 4g
at Coors Field no games
Overall 0.250 0.693 4 41g

COL Colorado Rockies Confirmed

1 Jake McCarthy L 0.724
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.253 0.717 17 204g
Hot (80°+) 0.240 0.602 1 50g
at Coors Field 0.316 0.857 4 40g
Overall 0.271 0.724 18 278g
2 Mickey Moniak L 0.759
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.764 47 254g
Hot (80°+) 0.249 0.739 15 89g
at Coors Field 0.305 0.971 24 97g
Overall 0.249 0.759 50 308g
3 Hunter Goodman R 0.798
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.796 49 204g
Hot (80°+) 0.277 0.919 33 104g
at Coors Field 0.259 0.809 31 143g
Overall 0.250 0.798 69 292g
4 TJ Rumfield L 0.854
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.300 0.872 9 62g
Hot (80°+) 0.324 1.025 5 19g
at Coors Field 0.284 0.846 7 39g
Overall 0.294 0.854 12 81g
5 Cole Carrigg S 0.897
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.207 0.792 1 10g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.806 1 10g
at Coors Field 0.346 1.049 1 8g
Overall 0.268 0.897 3 17g
6 Troy Johnston L 0.789
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.313 0.809 6 91g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.706 2 25g
at Coors Field 0.341 0.858 1 39g
Overall 0.303 0.789 7 120g
7 Kyle Karros R 0.675
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.241 0.684 5 92g
Hot (80°+) 0.267 0.745 2 33g
at Coors Field 0.237 0.691 3 55g
Overall 0.242 0.675 6 122g
8 Ezequiel Tovar R 0.705
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.707 34 237g
Hot (80°+) 0.286 0.829 22 113g
at Coors Field 0.279 0.777 21 158g
Overall 0.252 0.705 41 330g
9 Edouard Julien L 0.618
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.206 0.603 12 178g
Hot (80°+) 0.207 0.483 0 36g
at Coors Field 0.223 0.572 0 34g
Overall 0.212 0.618 13 227g

Injured List

MIA (7 on IL)
COL (10 on IL)