predicted sports
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← Games Wrigley Field
SD logo
SD
San Diego Padres
1 - 0
Live
CHC logo
CHC
Chicago Cubs
49% Win Probability 51%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
CHC

“Word is the Padres are scrambling for a starter. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, look for Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga to cruise and bats to fly.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
CHC

“Model projects 9.5 total runs vs line 11.5; Imanaga's 3.65 xERA and Wrigley's 0.93 park factor crush the over hype.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.054 · expected total 8.7
SD starter Locked
Griffin Canning
7.38 ERA · 9.1 K/9
starter 5.53 R/9 over ~4.8 ip
bullpen 3.52 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.49 runs
CHC starter Locked
Shota Imanaga
4.40 ERA · 8.6 K/9
starter 4.43 R/9 over ~5.6 ip
bullpen 4.15 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.23 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

1
SD
3 games
12.0 avg runs
2
CHC

Team Data (season)

SDCHC
43-39Record46-38
3.91Runs / g4.92
4.07Runs allowed / g4.44
44%Scored first46%
39%Cover -1.538%
65%Cover +1.565%

Form & Market Trends

SD San Diego Padres n 10/82/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 60% 52% 55%
Cover -1.5 40% 39% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 65% 69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 38% 42%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 40% 41%
Team over 4.5 60% 37% 42%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 34% 36%
Run in 1st (RFI) 20% 33% 48%
Extra innings 20% 6% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 35% 43%
Race to 4 50% 30% 39%
Race to 5 60% 32% 35%
Race to 6 30% 23% 25%
Race to 7 20% 21% 21%
CHC Chicago Cubs n 10/84/170
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 80% 55% 56%
Cover -1.5 60% 38% 41%
Cover +1.5 80% 65% 68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 37% 51%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 70% 56% 45%
Team over 4.5 70% 52% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 45% 47%
Run in 1st (RFI) 20% 39% 51%
Extra innings 20% 13% 6%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 49% 55%
Race to 4 90% 49% 48%
Race to 5 70% 43% 36%
Race to 6 60% 35% 31%
Race to 7 60% 31% 24%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SD San Diego Padres Confirmed

1 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 0.799
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.277 0.802 12 99g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.759 5 43g
at Wrigley Field 0.216 0.509 0 9g
Overall 0.275 0.799 53 348g
2 Samad Taylor R 0.743
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.292 0.612 0 8g
Hot (80°+) 0.316 0.824 1 6g
at Wrigley Field no games
Overall 0.309 0.743 1 26g
3 Manny Machado R 0.766
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.280 0.859 25 112g
Hot (80°+) 0.269 0.833 14 61g
at Wrigley Field 0.129 0.432 1 8g
Overall 0.255 0.766 73 401g
4 Miguel Andujar R 0.739
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.311 0.806 7 56g
Hot (80°+) 0.286 0.768 6 58g
at Wrigley Field 0.400 1.000 0 2g
Overall 0.287 0.739 19 232g
5 Ty France R 0.675
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.228 0.649 6 77g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.712 7 86g
at Wrigley Field 0.000 0.100 0 3g
Overall 0.246 0.675 30 339g
6 Jackson Merrill L 0.764
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.278 0.781 13 96g
Hot (80°+) 0.301 0.861 9 54g
at Wrigley Field 0.267 0.900 2 9g
Overall 0.264 0.764 50 360g
7 Xander Bogaerts R 0.690
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.272 0.684 4 92g
Hot (80°+) 0.294 0.824 7 48g
at Wrigley Field 0.257 0.612 0 9g
Overall 0.254 0.690 31 335g
8 Freddy Fermin R 0.635
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.250 0.638 2 71g
Hot (80°+) 0.287 0.703 4 83g
at Wrigley Field 0.278 0.667 0 5g
Overall 0.244 0.635 14 277g
9 Jake Cronenworth L 0.680
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.176 0.493 3 88g
Hot (80°+) 0.222 0.632 4 54g
at Wrigley Field 0.235 0.551 0 9g
Overall 0.230 0.680 29 332g

CHC Chicago Cubs Confirmed

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 0.750
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.765 47 288g
Hot (80°+) 0.274 0.832 19 99g
at Wrigley Field 0.267 0.792 28 180g
Overall 0.250 0.750 58 372g
2 Alex Bregman R 0.756
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.273 0.788 38 250g
Hot (80°+) 0.315 0.848 5 48g
at Wrigley Field 0.208 0.600 3 46g
Overall 0.260 0.756 50 346g
3 Michael Busch L 0.806
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.255 0.819 61 314g
Hot (80°+) 0.292 0.901 27 104g
at Wrigley Field 0.250 0.796 28 195g
Overall 0.251 0.806 68 398g
4 Seiya Suzuki R 0.819
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.260 0.794 47 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.268 0.789 14 103g
at Wrigley Field 0.248 0.801 33 176g
Overall 0.262 0.819 68 359g
5 Ian Happ S 0.768
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.793 56 298g
Hot (80°+) 0.261 0.882 24 105g
at Wrigley Field 0.250 0.820 35 191g
Overall 0.236 0.768 67 391g
6 Nico Hoerner R 0.708
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.270 0.680 12 302g
Hot (80°+) 0.305 0.746 4 107g
at Wrigley Field 0.273 0.684 5 196g
Overall 0.279 0.708 19 397g
7 Michael Conforto L 0.702
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.211 0.681 30 251g
Hot (80°+) 0.192 0.656 5 57g
at Wrigley Field 0.176 0.664 2 30g
Overall 0.220 0.702 37 321g
8 Miguel Amaya R 0.680
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.721 14 148g
Hot (80°+) 0.274 0.797 4 41g
at Wrigley Field 0.230 0.657 8 95g
Overall 0.240 0.680 15 191g
9 Dansby Swanson R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.228 0.688 37 301g
Hot (80°+) 0.262 0.745 15 105g
at Wrigley Field 0.233 0.704 26 194g
Overall 0.231 0.693 51 396g

Injured List

SD (10 on IL)
CHC (15 on IL)