predicted sports
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TEX logo
TEX
Texas Rangers
3 - 2
Live
CLE logo
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
49% Win Probability 51%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
CLE

“Word is the Rangers are running on fumes. Watch for Cleveland's Parker Messick to carve up a Texas bullpen game.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
CLE

“Sim runs 3.6-3.6, but with park factor 0.93 and two SPs with xERAs under 3.25, lean under 7.5.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.042 · expected total 7.5
TEX starter Locked
Tyler Alexander
2.62 ERA · 7.1 K/9
starter 4.14 R/9 over ~4.0 ip
bullpen 4.13 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.99 runs
CLE starter Locked
Parker Messick
2.67 ERA · 9.6 K/9
starter 3.36 R/9 over ~5.8 ip
bullpen 4.25 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.55 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
TEX
3 games
7.0 avg runs
1
CLE

Team Data (season)

TEXCLE
42-42Record44-40
4.05Runs / g3.94
4.14Runs allowed / g4.04
50%Scored first51%
32%Cover -1.536%
62%Cover +1.569%

Form & Market Trends

TEX Texas Rangers n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 50% 50%
Cover -1.5 20% 32% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 62% 68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 43% 49%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 48% 41%
Team over 4.5 40% 40% 39%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 37% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 64% 44%
Extra innings 10% 4% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 46% 46%
Race to 4 50% 36% 43%
Race to 5 30% 32% 31%
Race to 6 30% 24% 26%
Race to 7 20% 17% 19%
CLE Cleveland Guardians n 10/84/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 52% 54%
Cover -1.5 20% 36% 38%
Cover +1.5 80% 69% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 43% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 44% 41%
Team over 4.5 30% 32% 36%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 37% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 43% 45%
Extra innings 10% 7% 11%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 48% 48%
Race to 4 40% 36% 38%
Race to 5 30% 30% 30%
Race to 6 20% 25% 24%
Race to 7 10% 17% 16%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TEX Texas Rangers Confirmed

1 Justin Foscue R 0.585
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.246 0.763 3 19g
Hot (80°+) 0.214 0.429 0 6g
at Progressive Field no games
Overall 0.188 0.585 5 56g
2 Josh Jung R 0.719
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.311 0.846 9 64g
Hot (80°+) 0.275 0.670 2 41g
at Progressive Field 0.280 0.708 0 6g
Overall 0.267 0.719 29 255g
3 Ezequiel Duran R 0.637
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.242 0.600 2 80g
Hot (80°+) 0.203 0.553 3 44g
at Progressive Field 0.067 0.200 0 5g
Overall 0.249 0.637 9 257g
4 Jake Burger R 0.734
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.752 16 93g
Hot (80°+) 0.305 0.878 10 53g
at Progressive Field 0.250 0.500 0 3g
Overall 0.248 0.734 59 321g
5 Kyle Higashioka R 0.714
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.219 0.711 14 74g
Hot (80°+) 0.232 0.698 5 45g
at Progressive Field 0.300 0.764 0 3g
Overall 0.232 0.714 36 230g
6 Alejandro Osuna L 0.594
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.167 0.442 0 19g
Hot (80°+) 0.222 0.522 0 17g
at Progressive Field 0.250 1.000 1 2g
Overall 0.231 0.594 2 113g
7 Cameron Cauley R
No prior game history.
8 Nicky Lopez L 0.597
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.192 0.400 0 28g
Hot (80°+) 0.248 0.608 0 39g
at Progressive Field 0.143 0.408 0 6g
Overall 0.244 0.597 2 173g
9 Evan Carter L 0.645
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.116 0.377 1 37g
Hot (80°+) 0.224 0.584 1 26g
at Progressive Field no games
Overall 0.205 0.645 16 175g

CLE Cleveland Guardians Confirmed

1 Travis Bazzana L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.266 0.787 2 17g
Hot (80°+) 0.136 0.406 0 6g
at Progressive Field 0.239 0.687 1 25g
Overall 0.256 0.778 7 53g
2 Brayan Rocchio S 0.650
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.217 0.641 7 100g
Hot (80°+) 0.202 0.590 5 89g
at Progressive Field 0.249 0.655 7 176g
Overall 0.235 0.650 20 352g
3 Chase DeLauter L 0.742
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.373 0.905 0 20g
Hot (80°+) 0.273 0.724 0 7g
at Progressive Field 0.271 0.705 2 36g
Overall 0.263 0.742 7 69g
4 Rhys Hoskins R 0.709
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.199 0.701 16 95g
Hot (80°+) 0.208 0.682 10 56g
at Progressive Field 0.221 0.775 3 34g
Overall 0.212 0.709 45 291g
5 Kahlil Watson L 0.764
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.200 0.400 0 2g
Hot (80°+) no games
at Progressive Field 0.400 1.000 0 3g
Overall 0.290 0.764 1 10g
6 David Fry R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.250 0.788 16 98g
Hot (80°+) 0.199 0.603 6 76g
at Progressive Field 0.237 0.737 12 117g
Overall 0.232 0.728 28 251g
7 Steven Kwan L 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.703 9 100g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.654 8 92g
at Progressive Field 0.261 0.719 15 179g
Overall 0.270 0.711 26 367g
8 Gabriel Arias R 0.616
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.247 0.700 7 64g
Hot (80°+) 0.222 0.665 5 39g
at Progressive Field 0.224 0.641 6 94g
Overall 0.219 0.616 16 204g
9 Austin Hedges R 0.530
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.199 0.553 4 84g
Hot (80°+) 0.185 0.553 2 55g
at Progressive Field 0.205 0.519 1 92g
Overall 0.184 0.530 8 183g

Injured List

TEX (11 on IL)
CLE (2 on IL)