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← Games Fenway Park
WSH logo
WSH
Washington Nationals
3 - 6
Final
BOS logo
BOS
Boston Red Sox
40% Win Probability 60%
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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
BOS

“Suarez's 2.68 FIP dominates Mikolas's 5.31, but Fenway's 9.3 expected total overpowers the 8.5 line.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.00 · temp ×1.009 · expected total 9.3
WSH starter Locked
Miles Mikolas
5.44 ERA · 5.0 K/9
starter 5.99 R/9 over ~4.4 ip
bullpen 5.43 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.75 runs
BOS starter Locked
Ranger Suarez
2.94 ERA · 9.3 K/9
starter 3.52 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 3.49 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.54 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
WSH
1 game
9.0 avg runs
1
BOS

Team Data (season)

WSHBOS
43-43Record37-46
5.26Runs / g4.02
5.23Runs allowed / g3.93
58%Scored first46%
36%Cover -1.537%
64%Cover +1.559%

Form & Market Trends

WSH Washington Nationals n 10/86/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 50% 41%
Cover -1.5 20% 36% 26%
Cover +1.5 60% 64% 52%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 55% 35%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 66% 56%
Team over 4.5 30% 52% 40%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 49% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 50% 52%
Extra innings 10% 12% 5%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 56% 34%
Race to 4 70% 50% 30%
Race to 5 30% 41% 27%
Race to 6 10% 31% 21%
Race to 7 10% 27% 17%
BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/83/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 45% 55%
Cover -1.5 60% 37% 41%
Cover +1.5 80% 59% 72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 80% 36% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 41% 46%
Team over 4.5 70% 42% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 34% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 70% 54% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 43% 43%
Race to 4 70% 37% 42%
Race to 5 70% 35% 35%
Race to 6 40% 23% 28%
Race to 7 0% 14% 22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

WSH Washington Nationals Confirmed

1 James Wood L 0.830
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.249 0.719 14 98g
Mild (60–80°) 0.263 0.863 35 176g
at Fenway Park 0.250 1.250 1 1g
Overall 0.258 0.830 61 322g
2 Andrés Chaparro R 0.601
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.189 0.571 2 43g
Mild (60–80°) 0.201 0.593 2 57g
at Fenway Park 0.500 1.167 0 1g
Overall 0.196 0.601 5 91g
3 Curtis Mead R 0.660
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.245 0.698 8 75g
Mild (60–80°) 0.223 0.619 10 128g
at Fenway Park 0.333 0.667 0 4g
Overall 0.232 0.660 18 198g
4 CJ Abrams L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.232 0.656 11 105g
Mild (60–80°) 0.256 0.781 35 195g
at Fenway Park 0.312 0.688 0 4g
Overall 0.256 0.757 56 365g
5 Dylan Crews R 0.620
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.215 0.588 5 48g
Mild (60–80°) 0.210 0.631 13 99g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.213 0.620 18 152g
6 Jacob Young R 0.614
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.256 0.660 6 112g
Mild (60–80°) 0.240 0.605 7 185g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 4g
Overall 0.240 0.614 13 351g
7 Luis García Jr. L 0.758
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.250 0.705 6 84g
Mild (60–80°) 0.269 0.768 30 190g
at Fenway Park 0.133 0.388 0 4g
Overall 0.270 0.758 50 358g
8 Nasim Nuñez S 0.622
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.257 0.689 2 57g
Mild (60–80°) 0.244 0.651 3 102g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.236 0.622 4 170g
9 Keibert Ruiz S 0.637
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.216 0.555 4 72g
Mild (60–80°) 0.238 0.620 7 127g
at Fenway Park 0.200 0.400 0 3g
Overall 0.244 0.637 21 250g

BOS Boston Red Sox Confirmed

1 Masataka Yoshida L 0.718
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.271 0.706 13 183g
Mild (60–80°) 0.259 0.676 8 131g
at Fenway Park 0.277 0.726 7 106g
Overall 0.273 0.718 16 222g
2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.691
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.676 25 280g
Mild (60–80°) 0.244 0.679 25 221g
at Fenway Park 0.265 0.708 19 197g
Overall 0.253 0.691 38 390g
3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.795 45 258g
Mild (60–80°) 0.239 0.739 28 182g
at Fenway Park 0.248 0.759 22 166g
Overall 0.254 0.778 47 331g
4 Willson Contreras R 0.815
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.268 0.810 37 215g
Mild (60–80°) 0.259 0.776 23 148g
at Fenway Park 0.306 0.944 10 44g
Overall 0.265 0.815 53 300g
5 Jarren Duran L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.256 0.768 40 295g
Mild (60–80°) 0.237 0.692 24 231g
at Fenway Park 0.275 0.804 22 196g
Overall 0.256 0.757 49 397g
6 Caleb Durbin R 0.686
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.694 13 160g
Mild (60–80°) 0.264 0.736 14 143g
at Fenway Park 0.207 0.611 3 39g
Overall 0.248 0.686 18 221g
7 Anthony Seigler S 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.235 0.632 1 36g
Mild (60–80°) 0.215 0.579 1 29g
at Fenway Park 0.389 1.117 1 6g
Overall 0.255 0.673 1 46g
8 Carlos Narváez R 0.670
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.636 12 124g
Mild (60–80°) 0.203 0.634 11 109g
at Fenway Park 0.250 0.745 8 84g
Overall 0.226 0.670 17 175g
9 Tsung-Che Cheng L 0.308
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.125 0.364 0 6g
Mild (60–80°) 0.133 0.388 0 5g
at Fenway Park 0.167 0.481 0 4g
Overall 0.105 0.308 0 7g

Injured List

WSH (8 on IL)
BOS (12 on IL)