predicted sports
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← Games Rogers Centre
NYM logo
NYM
New York Mets
1 - 2
Final
TOR logo
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
49% Win Probability 51%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
TOR

“Word is the Mets are walking into a buzzsaw; the hype around Jays' rookie Trey Yesavage and his disappearing splitter is real. Watch for Ks.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
TOR

“Model gives TOR a 50.6% edge; park factor and Manaea's 4.87 ERA push over 8.5 (52%).”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.04 · temp ×1.012 · expected total 8.5
NYM starter Locked
Sean Manaea
4.71 ERA · 9.1 K/9
starter 4.60 R/9 over ~4.8 ip
bullpen 3.67 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.38 runs
TOR starter Locked
Trey Yesavage
3.34 ERA · 8.2 K/9
starter 3.90 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 4.05 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.16 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
NYM
1 game
3.0 avg runs
1
TOR

Team Data (season)

NYMTOR
35-50Record40-45
4.00Runs / g4.06
4.54Runs allowed / g4.44
44%Scored first42%
33%Cover -1.534%
60%Cover +1.565%

Form & Market Trends

NYM New York Mets n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 10% 41% 51%
Cover -1.5 10% 33% 37%
Cover +1.5 50% 60% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 0% 34% 48%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 44% 52%
Team over 4.5 30% 34% 44%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 34% 43%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 49% 46%
Extra innings 10% 15% 8%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 39% 48%
Race to 4 20% 38% 43%
Race to 5 10% 29% 39%
Race to 6 10% 24% 28%
Race to 7 0% 20% 22%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays n 10/85/180
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 47% 58%
Cover -1.5 20% 34% 42%
Cover +1.5 60% 65% 70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 36% 43%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 47% 53%
Team over 4.5 30% 38% 48%
Team F5 over 2.5 10% 24% 44%
Run in 1st (RFI) 90% 54% 51%
Extra innings 10% 9% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 10% 34% 51%
Race to 4 10% 29% 49%
Race to 5 10% 27% 41%
Race to 6 20% 20% 34%
Race to 7 10% 13% 26%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

NYM New York Mets Confirmed

1 Carson Benge L 0.700
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.664 7 62g
Mild (60–80°) 0.232 0.660 5 43g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.257 0.700 9 82g
2 Juan Soto L 0.964
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.290 0.991 77 288g
Mild (60–80°) 0.277 0.968 62 240g
at Rogers Centre 0.348 1.212 2 7g
Overall 0.282 0.964 105 397g
3 Bo Bichette R 0.736
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.281 0.742 23 238g
Mild (60–80°) 0.278 0.750 24 219g
at Rogers Centre 0.281 0.784 15 109g
Overall 0.274 0.736 33 312g
4 Francisco Lindor S 0.808
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.272 0.827 50 255g
Mild (60–80°) 0.281 0.868 45 206g
at Rogers Centre 0.200 0.933 2 4g
Overall 0.267 0.808 69 353g
5 Jared Young L 0.731
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.230 0.739 9 51g
Mild (60–80°) 0.198 0.702 5 33g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.220 0.731 10 62g
6 A.J. Ewing L 0.777
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.282 0.768 2 32g
Mild (60–80°) 0.235 0.604 1 28g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.333 0 1g
Overall 0.275 0.777 4 45g
7 Mark Vientos R 0.748
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.247 0.771 44 212g
Mild (60–80°) 0.246 0.737 36 195g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.067 0 4g
Overall 0.245 0.748 59 315g
8 Brett Baty L 0.672
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.237 0.683 21 195g
Mild (60–80°) 0.238 0.695 16 146g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.235 0.672 25 261g
9 Francisco Alvarez R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.725 22 175g
Mild (60–80°) 0.238 0.697 17 152g
at Rogers Centre 0.308 0.973 1 4g
Overall 0.247 0.728 30 244g

TOR Toronto Blue Jays Confirmed

1 George Springer R 0.786
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.238 0.757 18 91g
Mild (60–80°) 0.257 0.795 52 292g
at Rogers Centre 0.265 0.820 36 193g
Overall 0.256 0.786 63 363g
2 Nathan Lukes L 0.745
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.276 0.712 1 50g
Mild (60–80°) 0.262 0.705 11 174g
at Rogers Centre 0.257 0.689 6 116g
Overall 0.273 0.745 17 225g
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.873
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.287 0.879 17 102g
Mild (60–80°) 0.295 0.831 41 329g
at Rogers Centre 0.293 0.846 30 212g
Overall 0.304 0.873 65 414g
4 Kazuma Okamoto R 0.771
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.220 0.711 5 22g
Mild (60–80°) 0.242 0.785 16 71g
at Rogers Centre 0.259 0.796 10 46g
Overall 0.236 0.771 19 83g
5 Ernie Clement R 0.730
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.316 0.841 11 102g
Mild (60–80°) 0.280 0.708 22 317g
at Rogers Centre 0.284 0.731 17 206g
Overall 0.285 0.730 29 396g
6 Brandon Valenzuela S 0.749
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.161 0.547 1 12g
Mild (60–80°) 0.234 0.775 7 47g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.849 5 28g
Overall 0.240 0.749 7 53g
7 Luis Urías R 0.660
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.217 0.770 8 44g
Mild (60–80°) 0.250 0.741 9 84g
at Rogers Centre 0.292 0.893 1 10g
Overall 0.224 0.660 13 143g
8 Yohendrick Piñango L 0.746
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.103 0.334 0 12g
Mild (60–80°) 0.295 0.827 5 38g
at Rogers Centre 0.264 0.770 3 24g
Overall 0.270 0.746 5 46g
9 Myles Straw R 0.645
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.291 0.766 3 64g
Mild (60–80°) 0.223 0.589 2 178g
at Rogers Centre 0.262 0.694 3 119g
Overall 0.248 0.645 6 232g

Injured List

NYM (8 on IL)
TOR (10 on IL)