predicted sports
Games Stats Teams Players Explore
← Games Citizens Bank Park
PIT logo
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
4 - 5
Live
PHI logo
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
56% Win Probability 44%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
PIT

“Forget the names on the jerseys. Word is Braxton Ashcraft is the real ace in this matchup, and Aaron Nola's been getting shelled all year.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
PIT

“Sim runs 9.3 vs line 8.5, Ashcraft's 2.83 FIP > Nola's 4.85 — PIT value.”

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E Edge 1–2 plays a day
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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.05 · temp ×1.048 · expected total 9.8
PIT starter Locked
Braxton Ashcraft
3.07 ERA · 10.0 K/9
starter 3.74 R/9 over ~5.8 ip
bullpen 4.71 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.48 runs
PHI starter Locked
Aaron Nola
5.58 ERA · 9.1 K/9
starter 5.16 R/9 over ~5.1 ip
bullpen 4.36 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.28 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
PIT
3 games
10.7 avg runs
3
PHI

Team Data (season)

PITPHI
42-42Record47-37
5.11Runs / g4.38
4.77Runs allowed / g4.36
60%Scored first55%
36%Cover -1.535%
62%Cover +1.563%

Form & Market Trends

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 50% 44%
Cover -1.5 50% 36% 28%
Cover +1.5 80% 62% 65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 49% 36%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 57% 38%
Team over 4.5 60% 50% 28%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 45% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 52% 44%
Extra innings 0% 11% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 51% 43%
Race to 4 60% 44% 32%
Race to 5 50% 37% 23%
Race to 6 40% 36% 16%
Race to 7 50% 27% 14%
PHI Philadelphia Phillies n 10/84/166
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 56% 58%
Cover -1.5 40% 35% 43%
Cover +1.5 70% 63% 72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 43% 48%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 49% 49%
Team over 4.5 60% 40% 44%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 36% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 70% 55% 48%
Extra innings 0% 8% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 48% 51%
Race to 4 20% 32% 45%
Race to 5 40% 31% 37%
Race to 6 40% 31% 31%
Race to 7 20% 18% 27%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed

1 Konnor Griffin R 0.735
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.264 0.693 4 39g
Hot (80°+) 0.158 0.316 0 6g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.273 0.735 5 53g
2 Brandon Lowe L 0.793
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.800 58 251g
Hot (80°+) 0.252 0.819 31 116g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.400 1.900 1 3g
Overall 0.249 0.793 72 319g
3 Bryan Reynolds S 0.774
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.265 0.776 37 297g
Hot (80°+) 0.317 0.912 25 131g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.318 0.878 1 6g
Overall 0.266 0.774 51 394g
4 Ryan O'Hearn L 0.786
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.281 0.793 38 287g
Hot (80°+) 0.263 0.777 14 123g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.275 0.786 45 360g
5 Esmerlyn Valdez R 1.002
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.259 0.977 3 10g
Hot (80°+) 0.111 0.333 0 4g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.262 1.002 5 15g
6 Endy Rodríguez S 0.699
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.743 3 39g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.777 2 13g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.224 0.699 3 48g
7 Tyler Callihan L 0.838
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.246 0.802 3 22g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.881 2 10g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.250 0.838 3 25g
8 Jared Triolo R 0.624
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.210 0.589 11 198g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.684 7 91g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.267 0.620 0 4g
Overall 0.224 0.624 16 283g
9 Jake Mangum S 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.317 0.742 3 135g
Hot (80°+) 0.305 0.722 1 83g
at Citizens Bank Park no games
Overall 0.297 0.693 4 182g

PHI Philadelphia Phillies Confirmed

1 Trea Turner R 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.283 0.753 30 235g
Hot (80°+) 0.309 0.831 17 114g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.301 0.791 18 172g
Overall 0.282 0.755 43 352g
2 Kyle Schwarber L 0.896
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.900 86 264g
Hot (80°+) 0.256 0.926 41 126g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.249 0.951 73 200g
Overall 0.244 0.896 127 400g
3 Bryce Harper L 0.880
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.286 0.953 59 241g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.878 26 118g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.298 0.966 44 184g
Overall 0.274 0.880 77 369g
4 Brandon Marsh L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.278 0.793 30 250g
Hot (80°+) 0.270 0.808 18 119g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.282 0.810 22 178g
Overall 0.274 0.778 39 355g
5 Alec Bohm R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.273 0.722 18 225g
Hot (80°+) 0.285 0.779 15 110g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.256 0.729 22 173g
Overall 0.269 0.728 35 350g
6 Bryson Stott L 0.690
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.244 0.688 25 273g
Hot (80°+) 0.245 0.706 13 125g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.261 0.719 16 189g
Overall 0.246 0.690 31 381g
7 J.T. Realmuto R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.270 0.752 24 189g
Hot (80°+) 0.256 0.737 11 89g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.259 0.720 19 152g
Overall 0.250 0.693 32 299g
8 Gabriel Rincones Jr. L 0.324
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.042 0.208 1 7g
Hot (80°+) 0.067 0.133 0 5g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.062 0.312 1 5g
Overall 0.118 0.324 1 10g
9 Justin Crawford L 0.623
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.272 0.715 2 49g
Hot (80°+) 0.194 0.461 0 22g
at Citizens Bank Park 0.288 0.732 1 40g
Overall 0.243 0.623 2 78g

Injured List

PIT (4 on IL)
PHI (3 on IL)