predicted sports
Games Stats Teams Players Explore
← Games Oriole Park at Camden Yards
CWS logo
CWS
Chicago White Sox
3 - 2
Live
BAL logo
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
49% Win Probability 51%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
CWS

“Word is Shane Baz is still seeing ghosts from his last start vs Chicago. Fading the O's starter and riding the hot hand in Sean Burke.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
BAL

“Sim runs 9.6 vs line 9.5, park & temp juice the over; BAL's 0.510 home edge by a hair.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.048 · expected total 9.9
CWS starter Locked
Sean Burke
3.71 ERA · 9.0 K/9
starter 4.48 R/9 over ~5.1 ip
bullpen 4.52 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.86 runs
BAL starter Locked
Shane Baz
4.31 ERA · 7.8 K/9
starter 4.68 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 4.70 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.07 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
CWS
3 games
5.7 avg runs
3
BAL

Team Data (season)

CWSBAL
43-39Record39-46
4.78Runs / g4.61
4.56Runs allowed / g4.92
56%Scored first45%
32%Cover -1.539%
65%Cover +1.561%

Form & Market Trends

CWS Chicago White Sox n 10/82/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 52% 37%
Cover -1.5 20% 32% 28%
Cover +1.5 90% 65% 59%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 38% 36%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 55% 49%
Team over 4.5 30% 50% 34%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 49% 34%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 56% 56%
Extra innings 20% 13% 6%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 45% 40%
Race to 4 50% 40% 30%
Race to 5 20% 35% 27%
Race to 6 20% 34% 23%
Race to 7 10% 18% 19%
BAL Baltimore Orioles n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 46% 46%
Cover -1.5 30% 39% 30%
Cover +1.5 70% 61% 61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 34% 40%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 55% 44%
Team over 4.5 40% 47% 36%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 38% 39%
Run in 1st (RFI) 70% 47% 51%
Extra innings 20% 7% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 38% 46%
Race to 4 40% 38% 38%
Race to 5 40% 38% 31%
Race to 6 30% 31% 20%
Race to 7 10% 22% 14%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

CWS Chicago White Sox Confirmed

1 Sam Antonacci L 0.762
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.290 0.735 3 47g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 0.902 1 12g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.292 0.762 4 64g
2 Miguel Vargas R 0.712
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.220 0.717 31 199g
Hot (80°+) 0.231 0.723 12 69g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.133 0.321 0 5g
Overall 0.222 0.712 40 291g
3 Colson Montgomery L 0.802
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.766 30 111g
Hot (80°+) 0.215 0.807 12 39g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.230 0.802 41 150g
4 Kyle Teel L 0.774
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.278 0.793 9 77g
Hot (80°+) 0.312 0.790 2 24g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.270 0.774 9 83g
5 Randal Grichuk R 0.789
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.257 0.792 14 157g
Hot (80°+) 0.269 0.784 5 62g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.375 0.875 0 3g
Overall 0.260 0.789 30 272g
6 Braden Montgomery S 0.729
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.261 0.777 2 12g
Hot (80°+) 0.167 0.583 1 3g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.246 0.729 2 17g
7 Tristan Peters L 0.739
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.280 0.780 4 61g
Hot (80°+) 0.300 0.899 1 14g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.268 0.739 4 82g
8 Chase Meidroth R 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.676 6 145g
Hot (80°+) 0.260 0.636 0 44g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.222 0.444 0 3g
Overall 0.262 0.673 11 202g
9 Jacob Gonzalez L 0.624
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.641 2 17g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 0.916 1 8g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards no games
Overall 0.219 0.624 2 22g

BAL Baltimore Orioles Confirmed

1 Gunnar Henderson L 0.803
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.268 0.819 53 289g
Hot (80°+) 0.294 0.898 28 144g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.264 0.816 42 203g
Overall 0.264 0.803 70 399g
2 Taylor Ward R 0.764
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.233 0.748 54 312g
Hot (80°+) 0.286 0.853 16 93g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.263 0.716 2 49g
Overall 0.241 0.764 66 397g
3 Adley Rutschman S 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.236 0.691 24 213g
Hot (80°+) 0.231 0.667 6 101g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.226 0.694 18 148g
Overall 0.242 0.711 36 295g
4 Pete Alonso R 0.825
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.253 0.828 71 303g
Hot (80°+) 0.265 0.869 29 111g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.244 0.809 11 47g
Overall 0.256 0.825 95 422g
5 Samuel Basallo L 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.684 13 83g
Hot (80°+) 0.241 0.902 9 22g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.227 0.708 10 53g
Overall 0.224 0.693 16 102g
6 Dylan Beavers L 0.737
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.249 0.769 5 61g
Hot (80°+) 0.263 0.720 1 11g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.238 0.779 4 35g
Overall 0.233 0.737 6 69g
7 Colton Cowser L 0.710
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.230 0.720 35 233g
Hot (80°+) 0.221 0.673 20 121g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.242 0.733 21 156g
Overall 0.225 0.710 48 321g
8 Blaze Alexander R 0.703
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.628 5 132g
Hot (80°+) 0.234 0.640 2 43g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.320 0.778 1 38g
Overall 0.258 0.703 13 206g
9 Jackson Holliday L 0.659
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.219 0.654 23 182g
Hot (80°+) 0.256 0.718 10 98g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.232 0.666 15 117g
Overall 0.227 0.659 27 242g

Injured List

CWS (12 on IL)
BAL (9 on IL)