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← Games Tropicana Field
AZ logo
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 - 5
Final
TB logo
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
42% Win Probability 58%
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S Scoop Works the sources
Winner
TB

“Word is the probable pitchers are a mirage. Rays' starter Drew Rasmussen is on the IL, and Merrill Kelly's getting by on luck. Fade the struggling arm.”

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V Vega Runs the numbers
Winner
TB

“Rasmussen's 2.98 FIP vs Kelly's 7.20 xERA is a slaughter; sim says 8.2 total, over 7.5 at 59%.”

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.000 · expected total 8.2
AZ starter Locked
Merrill Kelly
5.84 ERA · 5.2 K/9
starter 5.15 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 4.58 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.57 runs
TB starter Locked
Drew Rasmussen
2.45 ERA · 9.2 K/9
starter 3.37 R/9 over ~5.6 ip
bullpen 4.77 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.61 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
AZ
3 games
6.3 avg runs
3
TB

Team Data (season)

AZTB
41-42Record48-33
4.22Runs / g4.52
4.59Runs allowed / g4.22
37%Scored first51%
33%Cover -1.546%
65%Cover +1.570%

Form & Market Trends

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks n 10/83/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 49% 49%
Cover -1.5 30% 33% 36%
Cover +1.5 50% 65% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 40% 49%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 46% 57%
Team over 4.5 40% 45% 54%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 30% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 55% 57%
Extra innings 0% 7% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 40% 51%
Race to 4 40% 40% 43%
Race to 5 30% 35% 40%
Race to 6 30% 27% 30%
Race to 7 30% 19% 19%
TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/81/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 59% 48%
Cover -1.5 60% 46% 34%
Cover +1.5 90% 70% 65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 47% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 20% 40% 48%
Team over 4.5 60% 48% 38%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 43% 46%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 51% 54%
Extra innings 0% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 60% 57% 51%
Race to 4 70% 52% 42%
Race to 5 50% 43% 32%
Race to 6 20% 28% 27%
Race to 7 10% 20% 22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks Confirmed

1 Ketel Marte S 0.879
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.274 0.873 55 232g
Mild (60–80°) 0.278 0.864 50 239g
at Tropicana Field 0.214 0.910 2 5g
Overall 0.281 0.879 79 341g
2 Geraldo Perdomo S 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.785 20 240g
Mild (60–80°) 0.295 0.829 23 241g
at Tropicana Field 0.375 0.965 1 6g
Overall 0.275 0.783 28 339g
3 Corbin Carroll L 0.825
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.243 0.810 50 268g
Mild (60–80°) 0.250 0.809 44 268g
at Tropicana Field 0.261 0.870 2 6g
Overall 0.251 0.825 66 381g
4 Adrian Del Castillo L 0.675
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.224 0.646 10 96g
Mild (60–80°) 0.272 0.755 8 80g
at Tropicana Field 0.125 0.438 1 4g
Overall 0.235 0.675 12 118g
5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.244 0.688 26 200g
Mild (60–80°) 0.260 0.715 27 210g
at Tropicana Field 0.250 0.536 0 5g
Overall 0.259 0.711 38 296g
6 Pavin Smith L 0.794
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.242 0.782 16 131g
Mild (60–80°) 0.247 0.750 11 134g
at Tropicana Field 0.125 0.375 0 2g
Overall 0.249 0.794 18 168g
7 Nolan Arenado R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.692 25 238g
Mild (60–80°) 0.225 0.628 18 173g
at Tropicana Field 0.200 0.573 0 3g
Overall 0.253 0.693 36 337g
8 Ildemaro Vargas S 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.251 0.617 4 126g
Mild (60–80°) 0.202 0.506 1 108g
at Tropicana Field 0.083 0.167 0 4g
Overall 0.254 0.654 11 205g
9 Tommy Troy R 0.684
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.156 0.520 2 22g
Mild (60–80°) 0.234 0.708 3 26g
at Tropicana Field 0.111 0.222 0 3g
Overall 0.228 0.684 3 30g

TB Tampa Bay Rays Confirmed

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.824
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.291 0.793 33 267g
Mild (60–80°) 0.309 0.842 34 243g
at Tropicana Field 0.323 0.883 18 119g
Overall 0.300 0.824 51 373g
2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.842
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.291 0.858 29 178g
Mild (60–80°) 0.299 0.895 27 148g
at Tropicana Field 0.282 0.877 12 62g
Overall 0.292 0.842 33 230g
3 Junior Caminero R 0.853
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.271 0.866 56 201g
Mild (60–80°) 0.261 0.851 46 168g
at Tropicana Field 0.317 1.014 17 60g
Overall 0.270 0.853 73 278g
4 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.183 0.633 4 29g
Mild (60–80°) 0.170 0.584 3 36g
at Tropicana Field 0.147 0.502 1 13g
Overall 0.194 0.654 4 39g
5 Chandler Simpson L 0.651
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.303 0.700 0 134g
Mild (60–80°) 0.281 0.659 0 103g
at Tropicana Field 0.263 0.620 0 42g
Overall 0.282 0.651 0 187g
6 Cedric Mullins L 0.682
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.674 37 266g
Mild (60–80°) 0.209 0.640 26 204g
at Tropicana Field 0.232 0.736 7 43g
Overall 0.223 0.682 44 353g
7 Ben Williamson R 0.613
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.255 0.643 3 97g
Mild (60–80°) 0.234 0.599 2 106g
at Tropicana Field 0.222 0.608 1 30g
Overall 0.246 0.613 3 144g
8 Taylor Walls S 0.584
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.200 0.566 4 180g
Mild (60–80°) 0.220 0.606 2 167g
at Tropicana Field 0.259 0.694 0 80g
Overall 0.209 0.584 5 249g
9 Nick Fortes R 0.595
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.229 0.602 9 168g
Mild (60–80°) 0.221 0.571 7 196g
at Tropicana Field 0.257 0.611 0 36g
Overall 0.234 0.595 10 269g

Injured List

AZ (10 on IL)
TB (9 on IL)