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AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
Thu, Jul 23
7:45 PM ET
STL logo
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
47% Win Probability 53%
● Free pick of the day Preliminary · probable lineups
Base
STL
53%
Total Model
Over
51%
line 9.5
RFI
NRFI
56%
1st inning
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.95 · temp ×1.036 · expected total 9.2
AZ starter Locked
Zac Gallen
6.15 ERA · 5.4 K/9
starter 5.75 R/9 over ~5.1 ip
bullpen 4.62 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.19 runs
STL starter Locked
Michael McGreevy
3.12 ERA · 5.7 K/9
starter 3.70 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 4.74 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.05 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
AZ
3 games
8.3 avg runs
1
STL

Team Data (season)

AZSTL
41-42Record43-38
4.22Runs / g4.47
4.59Runs allowed / g4.57
37%Scored first56%
33%Cover -1.535%
65%Cover +1.567%

Form & Market Trends

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks n 10/83/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 49% 49%
Cover -1.5 30% 33% 36%
Cover +1.5 50% 65% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 40% 49%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 46% 57%
Team over 4.5 40% 45% 54%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 30% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 55% 57%
Extra innings 0% 7% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 40% 51%
Race to 4 40% 40% 43%
Race to 5 30% 35% 40%
Race to 6 30% 27% 30%
Race to 7 30% 19% 19%
STL St. Louis Cardinals n 10/81/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 53% 48%
Cover -1.5 10% 35% 32%
Cover +1.5 50% 67% 61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 44% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 46% 51%
Team over 4.5 30% 49% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 47% 38%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 46% 51%
Extra innings 0% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 20% 47% 40%
Race to 4 10% 36% 35%
Race to 5 10% 37% 31%
Race to 6 10% 31% 26%
Race to 7 10% 20% 19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks Probable

1 Ketel Marte S 0.879
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.274 0.873 55 232g
Hot (80°+) 0.314 0.995 26 82g
at Busch Stadium 0.314 0.968 2 9g
Overall 0.281 0.879 79 341g
2 Geraldo Perdomo S 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.785 20 240g
Hot (80°+) 0.217 0.649 3 82g
at Busch Stadium 0.167 0.397 0 6g
Overall 0.275 0.783 28 339g
3 Corbin Carroll L 0.825
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.243 0.810 50 268g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.879 16 90g
at Busch Stadium 0.129 0.318 0 8g
Overall 0.251 0.825 66 381g
4 Gabriel Moreno R 0.768
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.266 0.750 15 159g
Hot (80°+) 0.297 0.790 4 58g
at Busch Stadium 0.250 0.724 1 8g
Overall 0.276 0.768 20 236g
5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.244 0.688 26 200g
Hot (80°+) 0.235 0.654 9 70g
at Busch Stadium 0.371 0.829 0 8g
Overall 0.259 0.711 38 296g
6 Max Kepler L 0.679
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.232 0.679 23 193g
Hot (80°+) 0.212 0.658 10 57g
at Busch Stadium 0.000 0.000 0 2g
Overall 0.231 0.679 26 238g
7 Nolan Arenado R 0.693
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.692 25 238g
Hot (80°+) 0.288 0.788 18 133g
at Busch Stadium 0.280 0.749 14 136g
Overall 0.253 0.693 36 337g
8 Pavin Smith L 0.794
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.242 0.782 16 131g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.841 3 25g
at Busch Stadium 0.333 0.984 1 7g
Overall 0.249 0.794 18 168g
9 Tommy Troy R 0.684
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.156 0.520 2 22g
Hot (80°+) 0.222 0.556 0 2g
at Busch Stadium 0.250 0.891 1 3g
Overall 0.228 0.684 3 30g

STL St. Louis Cardinals Confirmed

1 JJ Wetherholt L 0.752
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.274 0.745 8 60g
Hot (80°+) 0.194 0.592 3 16g
at Busch Stadium 0.253 0.683 6 40g
Overall 0.265 0.752 12 77g
2 Iván Herrera R 0.798
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.280 0.778 21 187g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.655 6 80g
at Busch Stadium 0.247 0.732 19 132g
Overall 0.279 0.798 34 260g
3 Alec Burleson L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.288 0.818 46 277g
Hot (80°+) 0.280 0.805 25 141g
at Busch Stadium 0.288 0.791 24 194g
Overall 0.279 0.778 52 371g
4 Jordan Walker R 0.689
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.228 0.651 19 175g
Hot (80°+) 0.241 0.674 6 67g
at Busch Stadium 0.243 0.691 14 120g
Overall 0.240 0.689 29 241g
5 Lars Nootbaar L 0.725
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.719 20 197g
Hot (80°+) 0.237 0.740 13 98g
at Busch Stadium 0.252 0.755 13 132g
Overall 0.242 0.725 27 264g
6 Masyn Winn R 0.688
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.258 0.689 19 250g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.719 13 139g
at Busch Stadium 0.256 0.688 14 184g
Overall 0.257 0.688 27 352g
7 Nathan Church L 0.640
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.674 6 71g
Hot (80°+) 0.208 0.562 1 22g
at Busch Stadium 0.270 0.685 3 45g
Overall 0.240 0.640 6 90g
8 Blaze Jordan R 0.697
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.194 0.445 0 9g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.641 0 4g
at Busch Stadium 0.136 0.436 0 8g
Overall 0.250 0.697 1 14g
9 José Fermín R 0.653
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.208 0.622 3 86g
Hot (80°+) 0.195 0.543 1 45g
at Busch Stadium 0.244 0.685 2 58g
Overall 0.241 0.653 4 122g

Injured List

AZ (10 on IL)
STL (2 on IL)