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TOR

Toronto Blue Jays

Thu, Aug 6

2:20 PM ET

CHC

Chicago Cubs

Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

TOR starter Locked

Dylan Cease

3.02 ERA · 13.8 K/9

CHC starter Locked

Shota Imanaga

4.40 ERA · 8.6 K/9

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

CHC — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

TOR

2 games

16.0 avg runs

CHC

Team Data (season)

TOR		CHC
40-45	Record	46-38
4.06	Runs / g	4.92
4.44	Runs allowed / g	4.44
42%	Scored first	46%
34%	Cover -1.5	38%
65%	Cover +1.5	65%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

TOR Toronto Blue Jays n 10/85/180

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	47%	58%
Cover -1.5	20%	34%	42%
Cover +1.5	60%	65%	70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	20%	36%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	47%	53%
Team over 4.5	30%	38%	48%
Team F5 over 2.5	10%	24%	44%
Run in 1st (RFI)	90%	54%	51%
Extra innings	10%	9%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	10%	34%	51%
Race to 4	10%	29%	49%
Race to 5	10%	27%	41%
Race to 6	20%	20%	34%
Race to 7	10%	13%	26%

CHC Chicago Cubs n 10/84/170

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	80%	55%	56%
Cover -1.5	60%	38%	41%
Cover +1.5	80%	65%	68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	50%	37%	51%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	70%	56%	45%
Team over 4.5	70%	52%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	45%	47%
Run in 1st (RFI)	20%	39%	51%
Extra innings	20%	13%	6%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	49%	55%
Race to 4	90%	49%	48%
Race to 5	70%	43%	36%
Race to 6	60%	35%	31%
Race to 7	60%	31%	24%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TOR Toronto Blue Jays Probable

1 George Springer R 0.786

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.238	0.757	18	91g
at Wrigley Field	0.292	0.792	1	5g
Overall	0.256	0.786	63	363g

2 Nathan Lukes L 0.745

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.276	0.712	1	50g
at Wrigley Field	0.167	0.500	0	2g
Overall	0.273	0.745	17	225g

3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.873

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.287	0.879	17	102g
at Wrigley Field	0.158	0.449	0	5g
Overall	0.304	0.873	65	414g

4 Kazuma Okamoto R 0.771

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.220	0.711	5	22g
at Wrigley Field	0.167	0.833	1	2g
Overall	0.236	0.771	19	83g

5 Ernie Clement R 0.730

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.316	0.841	11	102g
at Wrigley Field	0.133	0.267	0	4g
Overall	0.285	0.730	29	396g

6 Brandon Valenzuela S 0.749

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.161	0.547	1	12g
at Wrigley Field	0.250	0.500	0	1g
Overall	0.240	0.749	7	53g

7 Luis Urías R 0.660

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.217	0.770	8	44g
at Wrigley Field	no games
Overall	0.224	0.660	13	143g

8 Yohendrick Piñango L 0.746

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.103	0.334	0	12g
at Wrigley Field	0.000	0.000	0	2g
Overall	0.270	0.746	5	46g

9 Myles Straw R 0.645

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.291	0.766	3	64g
at Wrigley Field	0.333	0.833	0	1g
Overall	0.248	0.645	6	232g

CHC Chicago Cubs Probable

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 0.750

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.250	0.765	47	288g
at Wrigley Field	0.267	0.792	28	180g
Overall	0.250	0.750	58	372g

2 Alex Bregman R 0.756

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.273	0.788	38	250g
at Wrigley Field	0.208	0.600	3	46g
Overall	0.260	0.756	50	346g

3 Michael Busch L 0.806

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.255	0.819	61	314g
at Wrigley Field	0.250	0.796	28	195g
Overall	0.251	0.806	68	398g

4 Seiya Suzuki R 0.819

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.260	0.794	47	272g
at Wrigley Field	0.248	0.801	33	176g
Overall	0.262	0.819	68	359g

5 Ian Happ S 0.768

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.239	0.793	56	298g
at Wrigley Field	0.250	0.820	35	191g
Overall	0.236	0.768	67	391g

6 Nico Hoerner R 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.270	0.680	12	302g
at Wrigley Field	0.273	0.684	5	196g
Overall	0.279	0.708	19	397g

7 Michael Conforto L 0.702

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.211	0.681	30	251g
at Wrigley Field	0.176	0.664	2	30g
Overall	0.220	0.702	37	321g

8 Miguel Amaya R 0.680

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.252	0.721	14	148g
at Wrigley Field	0.230	0.657	8	95g
Overall	0.240	0.680	15	191g

9 Dansby Swanson R 0.693

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.228	0.688	37	301g
at Wrigley Field	0.233	0.704	26	194g
Overall	0.231	0.693	51	396g

Injured List

TOR (10 on IL)

Jesús Sánchez RF Injured 10-Day
Anthony Santander RF Injured 60-Day
Max Scherzer P Injured 15-Day
Lenyn Sosa 2B Injured 10-Day
José Berríos P Injured 60-Day
Addison Barger RF Injured 10-Day
Yimi García P Injured 60-Day
Bowden Francis P Injured 60-Day
Joe Mantiply P Injured 60-Day
Cody Ponce P Injured 60-Day

CHC (15 on IL)

Hoby Milner P Injured 15-Day
Edward Cabrera P Injured 15-Day
Ethan Roberts P Injured 15-Day
Phil Maton P Injured 15-Day
Ben Brown P Injured 15-Day
Matt Shaw RF Injured 10-Day
Hunter Harvey P Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller P Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele P Injured 60-Day
Daniel Palencia P Injured 15-Day
Porter Hodge P Injured 60-Day
Jameson Taillon P Injured 15-Day