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DET logo
DET
Detroit Tigers
Fri, Sep 4
1:40 PM ET
CLE logo
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

DET starter Locked
Casey Mize
2.63 ERA · 9.4 K/9
CLE starter Locked
Gavin Williams
3.81 ERA · 10.4 K/9

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
DET
6 games
5.8 avg runs
6
CLE

Team Data (season)

DETCLE
36-49Record44-41
4.13Runs / g3.93
4.12Runs allowed / g4.06
55%Scored first51%
32%Cover -1.535%
61%Cover +1.568%

Form & Market Trends

DET Detroit Tigers n 10/85/170
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 42% 54%
Cover -1.5 40% 32% 40%
Cover +1.5 70% 61% 62%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 44% 46%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 41% 52%
Team over 4.5 60% 40% 45%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 42% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 45% 45%
Extra innings 20% 8% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 45% 47%
Race to 4 50% 38% 46%
Race to 5 50% 35% 36%
Race to 6 30% 24% 31%
Race to 7 20% 16% 24%
CLE Cleveland Guardians n 10/85/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 52% 54%
Cover -1.5 10% 35% 38%
Cover +1.5 70% 68% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 44% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 45% 41%
Team over 4.5 30% 32% 36%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 36% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 42% 45%
Extra innings 10% 7% 11%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 47% 48%
Race to 4 30% 35% 38%
Race to 5 30% 29% 30%
Race to 6 20% 25% 24%
Race to 7 10% 16% 16%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

DET Detroit Tigers Probable

1 Matt Vierling R 0.676
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.236 0.664 15 184g
at Progressive Field 0.192 0.603 1 13g
Overall 0.238 0.676 22 254g
2 Dillon Dingler R 0.748
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.253 0.730 25 173g
at Progressive Field 0.184 0.604 1 10g
Overall 0.257 0.748 34 239g
3 Kevin McGonigle L 0.813
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.301 0.871 5 59g
at Progressive Field 0.111 0.222 0 2g
Overall 0.284 0.813 6 82g
4 Spencer Torkelson R 0.727
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.690 38 252g
at Progressive Field 0.194 0.581 2 17g
Overall 0.226 0.727 54 346g
5 Hao-Yu Lee R 0.682
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.286 0.805 3 25g
at Progressive Field 0.500 1.000 0 1g
Overall 0.258 0.682 3 47g
6 Jahmai Jones R 0.726
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.196 0.645 3 102g
at Progressive Field 0.100 0.500 1 7g
Overall 0.229 0.726 10 165g
7 Zach McKinstry L 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.223 0.651 16 263g
at Progressive Field 0.170 0.539 1 17g
Overall 0.233 0.681 20 335g
8 Ben Malgeri R 0.533
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP — — 0 2g
at Progressive Field no games
Overall 0.200 0.533 0 5g
9 James Outman L 0.520
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.149 0.535 11 126g
at Progressive Field 0.333 1.833 1 4g
Overall 0.148 0.520 12 175g

CLE Cleveland Guardians Probable

1 Travis Bazzana L 0.759
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.770 5 35g
at Progressive Field 0.227 0.654 1 26g
Overall 0.250 0.759 7 54g
2 Brayan Rocchio S 0.650
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.244 0.655 13 251g
at Progressive Field 0.250 0.657 7 177g
Overall 0.236 0.650 20 353g
3 Chase DeLauter L 0.749
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.223 0.681 7 48g
at Progressive Field 0.277 0.721 2 37g
Overall 0.267 0.749 7 70g
4 Rhys Hoskins R 0.709
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.713 29 195g
at Progressive Field 0.225 0.771 3 35g
Overall 0.212 0.709 45 292g
5 Kahlil Watson L 0.734
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.308 0.833 1 8g
at Progressive Field 0.357 0.857 0 4g
Overall 0.286 0.734 1 11g
6 David Fry R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.215 0.666 12 152g
at Progressive Field 0.239 0.738 12 118g
Overall 0.233 0.728 28 252g
7 Steven Kwan L 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.273 0.713 17 266g
at Progressive Field 0.261 0.717 15 180g
Overall 0.269 0.711 26 368g
8 Gabriel Arias R 0.622
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.206 0.575 9 140g
at Progressive Field 0.225 0.654 7 95g
Overall 0.220 0.622 17 205g
9 Austin Hedges R 0.530
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.165 0.502 4 99g
at Progressive Field 0.206 0.519 1 93g
Overall 0.184 0.530 8 184g

Injured List

DET (11 on IL)
CLE (2 on IL)