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Tampa Bay Rays

Tue, Sep 22

1:35 PM ET

NYY

New York Yankees

Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

TB starter Locked

Drew Rasmussen

2.45 ERA · 9.2 K/9

NYY starter Locked

Ryan Weathers

3.95 ERA · 9.9 K/9

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

NYY — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

5 games

6.8 avg runs

NYY

Team Data (season)

TB		NYY
48-33	Record	48-35
4.52	Runs / g	4.93
4.22	Runs allowed / g	3.71
51%	Scored first	60%
46%	Cover -1.5	47%
70%	Cover +1.5	73%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/81/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	70%	59%	48%
Cover -1.5	60%	46%	34%
Cover +1.5	90%	70%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	47%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	20%	40%	48%
Team over 4.5	60%	48%	38%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	43%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	51%	54%
Extra innings	0%	11%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	57%	51%
Race to 4	70%	52%	42%
Race to 5	50%	43%	32%
Race to 6	20%	28%	27%
Race to 7	10%	20%	22%

NYY New York Yankees n 10/83/169

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	58%	57%
Cover -1.5	20%	47%	43%
Cover +1.5	40%	73%	70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	10%	43%	56%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	45%	51%
Team over 4.5	10%	43%	50%
Team F5 over 2.5	10%	39%	49%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	53%	56%
Extra innings	10%	6%	8%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	40%	54%	56%
Race to 4	40%	52%	50%
Race to 5	10%	39%	41%
Race to 6	0%	33%	33%
Race to 7	0%	29%	28%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TB Tampa Bay Rays Probable

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.824

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.321	0.903	18	106g
at Yankee Stadium	0.239	0.575	0	12g
Overall	0.300	0.824	51	373g

2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.842

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.295	0.775	4	52g
at Yankee Stadium	0.367	1.058	2	8g
Overall	0.292	0.842	33	230g

3 Junior Caminero R 0.853

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.266	0.818	17	77g
at Yankee Stadium	0.133	0.445	1	8g
Overall	0.270	0.853	73	278g

4 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.654

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.273	0.792	0	10g
at Yankee Stadium	no games
Overall	0.194	0.654	4	39g

5 Chandler Simpson L 0.651

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs LHP	0.211	0.486	53g
at Yankee Stadium	0.167	0.333	9g
Overall	0.282	0.651	187g

6 Cedric Mullins L 0.682

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.243	0.712	7	87g
at Yankee Stadium	0.289	0.772	1	10g
Overall	0.223	0.682	44	353g

7 Ben Williamson R 0.613

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.230	0.561	0	47g
at Yankee Stadium	0.286	0.714	0	3g
Overall	0.246	0.613	3	144g

8 Taylor Walls S 0.584

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.234	0.630	1	69g
at Yankee Stadium	0.278	0.783	0	11g
Overall	0.209	0.584	5	249g

9 Nick Fortes R 0.595

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.241	0.585	1	100g
at Yankee Stadium	0.111	0.367	0	7g
Overall	0.234	0.595	10	269g

NYY New York Yankees Probable

1 Ben Rice L 0.821

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.259	0.870	48	201g
at Yankee Stadium	0.235	0.840	32	133g
Overall	0.246	0.821	56	272g

2 Cody Bellinger L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.250	0.769	47	275g
at Yankee Stadium	0.318	0.966	26	121g
Overall	0.266	0.789	59	371g

3 Paul Goldschmidt R 0.749

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.251	0.707	27	256g
at Yankee Stadium	0.241	0.691	10	110g
Overall	0.264	0.749	46	364g

4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 0.752

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.240	0.760	53	272g
at Yankee Stadium	0.250	0.797	30	145g
Overall	0.241	0.752	70	378g

5 Jasson Domínguez S 0.700

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.762	14	131g
at Yankee Stadium	0.247	0.698	4	81g
Overall	0.243	0.700	15	168g

6 Anthony Volpe R 0.666

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.220	0.634	27	271g
at Yankee Stadium	0.223	0.654	20	183g
Overall	0.232	0.666	34	369g

7 Spencer Jones L 0.649

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.231	0.710	2	19g
at Yankee Stadium	0.273	0.885	1	10g
Overall	0.215	0.649	2	27g

8 Austin Wells L 0.659

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.211	0.680	36	238g
at Yankee Stadium	0.206	0.661	17	156g
Overall	0.207	0.659	40	317g

9 José Caballero R 0.658

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.232	0.632	11	236g
at Yankee Stadium	0.254	0.717	5	65g
Overall	0.236	0.658	22	339g

Injured List

TB (9 on IL)

Steven Matz P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot P Injured 60-Day
Edwin Uceta P Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez P Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley P Injured 60-Day
Steven Wilson P Injured 60-Day
Jake Fraley RF Injured 10-Day
Gavin Lux LF Injured 60-Day
Jesse Scholtens P Injured 15-Day

NYY (6 on IL)

Ryan McMahon 3B Injured 10-Day
Max Fried P Injured 15-Day
Trent Grisham CF Injured 10-Day
Clarke Schmidt P Injured 60-Day
Giancarlo Stanton DH Injured 10-Day
Aaron Judge RF Injured 10-Day