predicted sports
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← Games Fenway Park
TB logo
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
Fri, Jul 17
4:10 PM ET
BOS logo
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

TB starter Locked
Nick Martinez
2.66 ERA · 5.5 K/9
BOS starter Locked
Payton Tolle
2.78 ERA · 8.7 K/9

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

5
TB
6 games
7.0 avg runs
1
BOS

Team Data (season)

TBBOS
48-33Record36-46
4.52Runs / g4.00
4.22Runs allowed / g3.94
51%Scored first46%
46%Cover -1.537%
70%Cover +1.559%

Form & Market Trends

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/81/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 59% 48%
Cover -1.5 60% 46% 34%
Cover +1.5 90% 70% 65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 47% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 20% 40% 48%
Team over 4.5 60% 48% 38%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 43% 46%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 51% 54%
Extra innings 0% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 60% 57% 51%
Race to 4 70% 52% 42%
Race to 5 50% 43% 32%
Race to 6 20% 28% 27%
Race to 7 10% 20% 22%
BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/82/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 44% 55%
Cover -1.5 60% 37% 41%
Cover +1.5 80% 59% 72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 80% 35% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 40% 46%
Team over 4.5 70% 41% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 33% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 54% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 43% 43%
Race to 4 70% 37% 42%
Race to 5 70% 34% 35%
Race to 6 40% 22% 28%
Race to 7 0% 15% 22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TB Tampa Bay Rays Probable

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.824
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.321 0.903 18 106g
at Fenway Park 0.266 0.682 1 16g
Overall 0.300 0.824 51 373g
2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.842
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.295 0.775 4 52g
at Fenway Park 0.216 0.534 0 15g
Overall 0.292 0.842 33 230g
3 Junior Caminero R 0.853
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.266 0.818 17 77g
at Fenway Park 0.192 0.659 4 13g
Overall 0.270 0.853 73 278g
4 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.273 0.792 0 10g
at Fenway Park no games
Overall 0.194 0.654 4 39g
5 Chandler Simpson L 0.651
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.211 0.486 0 53g
at Fenway Park 0.250 0.686 0 6g
Overall 0.282 0.651 0 187g
6 Cedric Mullins L 0.682
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.243 0.712 7 87g
at Fenway Park 0.225 0.701 2 11g
Overall 0.223 0.682 44 353g
7 Ben Williamson R 0.613
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.230 0.561 0 47g
at Fenway Park 0.421 0.963 0 6g
Overall 0.246 0.613 3 144g
8 Taylor Walls S 0.584
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.234 0.630 1 69g
at Fenway Park 0.212 0.490 0 11g
Overall 0.209 0.584 5 249g
9 Nick Fortes R 0.595
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.241 0.585 1 100g
at Fenway Park 0.444 0.889 0 3g
Overall 0.234 0.595 10 269g

BOS Boston Red Sox Probable

1 Masataka Yoshida L 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.271 0.707 13 182g
at Fenway Park 0.278 0.729 7 105g
Overall 0.273 0.720 16 221g
2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.690
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.251 0.674 25 279g
at Fenway Park 0.264 0.706 19 196g
Overall 0.253 0.690 38 389g
3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.795 45 257g
at Fenway Park 0.248 0.759 22 165g
Overall 0.254 0.778 47 330g
4 Willson Contreras R 0.812
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.806 36 214g
at Fenway Park 0.303 0.924 9 43g
Overall 0.265 0.812 52 299g
5 Jarren Duran L 0.759
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.256 0.771 40 294g
at Fenway Park 0.276 0.808 22 195g
Overall 0.256 0.759 49 396g
6 Caleb Durbin R 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.247 0.687 12 159g
at Fenway Park 0.203 0.579 2 38g
Overall 0.248 0.681 17 220g
7 Anthony Seigler S 0.643
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.594 1 35g
at Fenway Park 0.333 1.012 1 5g
Overall 0.242 0.643 1 45g
8 Carlos Narváez R 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.219 0.640 12 123g
at Fenway Park 0.252 0.751 8 83g
Overall 0.227 0.673 17 174g
9 Tsung-Che Cheng L 0.243
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.077 0.297 0 5g
at Fenway Park 0.111 0.422 0 3g
Overall 0.062 0.243 0 6g

Injured List

TB (9 on IL)
BOS (12 on IL)