Who will win Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals?

Predicted Sports' model gives the St. Louis Cardinals a 50% win probability for July 12, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction — Jul 12, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Busch Stadium

ATL

Atlanta Braves

2 - 1

Live

STL

St. Louis Cardinals

50% Win Probability 50%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

STL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Grok 4.5

Winner

STL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GLM 5.2

Winner

STL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

STL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.94 · temp ×1.039 · expected total 8.3

85° (fcst) · wind 8 mph Out To CF. · 70% humidity · day game · game 3 of series HP Adam Beck runs ×0.99 K ×1.01

ATL starter Locked

Danny Young

2.70 ERA · 8.1 K/9

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 3.33 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.80 runs

pen 3.52 FIP

STL starter Locked

Dustin May

4.55 ERA · 8.6 K/9

starter 4.66 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 4.56 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.51 runs

pen 4.25 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

ATL

5 games

7.6 avg runs

STL

Team Data (season)

ATL		STL
54-40	Record	50-44
4.85	Runs / g	4.53
3.88	Runs allowed / g	4.46
54%	Scored first	56%
47%	Cover -1.5	36%
71%	Cover +1.5	67%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

ATL Atlanta Braves n 10/94/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	57%	47%
Cover -1.5	40%	47%	34%
Cover +1.5	70%	71%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	47%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	51%	49%
Team over 4.5	60%	51%	41%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	44%	42%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	53%	51%
Extra innings	10%	7%	10%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	51%	41%
Race to 4	40%	47%	40%
Race to 5	40%	41%	33%
Race to 6	20%	33%	28%
Race to 7	20%	26%	23%

STL St. Louis Cardinals n 10/94/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	53%	48%
Cover -1.5	40%	36%	32%
Cover +1.5	70%	67%	61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	46%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	45%	51%
Team over 4.5	20%	47%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	47%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	47%	51%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	50%	40%
Race to 4	30%	35%	35%
Race to 5	20%	35%	31%
Race to 6	10%	29%	26%
Race to 7	10%	19%	19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

ATL Atlanta Braves Confirmed

1 Drake Baldwin L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.261	0.775	24	143g
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.709	8	65g
at Busch Stadium	0.250	0.544	0	5g
Overall	0.266	0.789	34	195g

2 Ozzie Albies S 0.699

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.229	0.654	25	243g
Hot (80°+)	0.248	0.671	10	120g
at Busch Stadium	0.067	0.218	0	8g
Overall	0.250	0.699	40	352g

3 Matt Olson L 0.828

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.260	0.828	55	293g
Hot (80°+)	0.267	0.830	31	158g
at Busch Stadium	0.156	0.385	0	8g
Overall	0.261	0.828	83	420g

4 Michael Harris II L 0.732

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.723	37	249g
Hot (80°+)	0.270	0.763	22	118g
at Busch Stadium	0.263	0.632	0	5g
Overall	0.268	0.732	53	360g

5 Mauricio Dubón R 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.258	0.652	10	250g
Hot (80°+)	0.295	0.792	8	62g
at Busch Stadium	0.214	0.767	1	4g
Overall	0.260	0.679	21	362g

6 Dominic Smith L 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.726	15	176g
Hot (80°+)	0.233	0.675	8	85g
at Busch Stadium	0.280	0.708	0	8g
Overall	0.258	0.708	17	234g

7 Austin Riley R 0.713

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.761	34	209g
Hot (80°+)	0.255	0.749	18	112g
at Busch Stadium	0.400	1.005	1	6g
Overall	0.244	0.713	44	306g

8 Jim Jarvis L 0.766

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.308	0.795	1	8g
Hot (80°+)	0.333	0.887	1	6g
at Busch Stadium	0.333	0.667	0	2g
Overall	0.296	0.766	1	9g

9 Brewer Hicklen R 0.583

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.667	1.417	0	2g
Hot (80°+)	0.000	0.000	0	1g
at Busch Stadium	no games
Overall	0.250	0.583	0	4g

STL St. Louis Cardinals Confirmed

1 JJ Wetherholt L 0.742

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.214	0.741	5	23g
Hot (80°+)	0.189	0.563	3	24g
at Busch Stadium	0.242	0.655	6	46g
Overall	0.262	0.742	13	89g

2 Iván Herrera R 0.787

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.273	0.818	13	80g
Hot (80°+)	0.230	0.640	7	89g
at Busch Stadium	0.245	0.724	20	139g
Overall	0.276	0.787	35	273g

3 Jordan Walker R 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.274	0.794	10	73g
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.717	9	76g
at Busch Stadium	0.247	0.708	16	127g
Overall	0.244	0.708	33	254g

4 Alec Burleson L 0.773

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.250	0.646	7	100g
Hot (80°+)	0.273	0.794	27	150g
at Busch Stadium	0.283	0.784	25	201g
Overall	0.277	0.773	54	384g

5 Lars Nootbaar L 0.720

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.248	0.725	7	71g
Hot (80°+)	0.238	0.732	13	106g
at Busch Stadium	0.251	0.757	14	138g
Overall	0.241	0.720	28	275g

6 Masyn Winn R 0.687

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.256	0.694	9	108g
Hot (80°+)	0.259	0.713	13	148g
at Busch Stadium	0.252	0.678	14	191g
Overall	0.257	0.687	28	365g

7 Nathan Church L 0.628

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.193	0.574	2	26g
Hot (80°+)	0.175	0.523	3	31g
at Busch Stadium	0.239	0.604	3	52g
Overall	0.227	0.628	9	103g

8 José Fermín R 0.655

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.293	0.732	2	42g
Hot (80°+)	0.198	0.567	2	54g
at Busch Stadium	0.241	0.689	3	64g
Overall	0.239	0.655	5	134g

9 Jimmy Crooks L 0.476

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.200	0.667	1	9g
Hot (80°+)	0.116	0.430	2	17g
at Busch Stadium	0.140	0.425	1	21g
Overall	0.155	0.476	3	39g

Injured List

ATL (11 on IL)

Robert Suarez P Injured 15-Day
Mike Yastrzemski LF Injured 10-Day
Ha-Seong Kim SS Injured 10-Day
Martín Pérez P Injured 15-Day
Joey Wentz P Injured 60-Day
Sean Murphy C Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider P Injured 60-Day
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF Injured 10-Day
AJ Smith-Shawver P Injured 60-Day
Joe Jiménez P Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach P Injured 60-Day

STL (2 on IL)

Max Rajcic P Injured 60-Day
Ramón Urías 3B Injured 60-Day

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Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction — July 12, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

ATL Atlanta Braves Confirmed

STL St. Louis Cardinals Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.