Who will win Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 59% win probability for July 12, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction — Jul 12, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Tropicana Field

SEA

Seattle Mariners

7 - 2

Live

Tampa Bay Rays

41% Win Probability 59%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.92 · dome · expected total 7.4

day game · game 3 of series HP Derek Thomas runs ×1.07 K ×1.00

SEA starter Locked

Emerson Hancock

3.23 ERA · 8.5 K/9

starter 3.59 R/9 over ~5.7 ip

bullpen 3.88 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.41 runs

pen 3.62 FIP

TB starter Locked

Ian Seymour

4.11 ERA · 10.6 K/9

starter 4.09 R/9 over ~4.8 ip

bullpen 4.63 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.01 runs

pen 4.50 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

SEA

2 games

8.0 avg runs

Team Data (season)

SEA		TB
47-49	Record	56-37
4.00	Runs / g	4.55
3.90	Runs allowed / g	4.14
59%	Scored first	52%
35%	Cover -1.5	48%
66%	Cover +1.5	70%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

SEA Seattle Mariners n 10/96/174

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	49%	55%
Cover -1.5	30%	35%	36%
Cover +1.5	50%	66%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	20%	40%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	42%	50%
Team over 4.5	30%	39%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	20%	36%	41%
Run in 1st (RFI)	0%	49%	48%
Extra innings	10%	10%	13%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	46%	50%
Race to 4	30%	34%	45%
Race to 5	30%	31%	33%
Race to 6	20%	22%	28%
Race to 7	20%	16%	21%

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/93/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	60%	60%	48%
Cover -1.5	60%	48%	34%
Cover +1.5	60%	70%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	49%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	40%	48%
Team over 4.5	50%	48%	38%
Team F5 over 2.5	50%	44%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	30%	49%	54%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	58%	51%
Race to 4	50%	53%	42%
Race to 5	50%	44%	32%
Race to 6	40%	30%	27%
Race to 7	20%	20%	22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SEA Seattle Mariners Confirmed

1 J.P. Crawford L 0.671

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.226	0.639	8	95g
Mild (60–80°)	0.220	0.631	18	235g
at Tropicana Field	0.353	1.006	0	5g
Overall	0.232	0.671	32	352g

2 Randy Arozarena R 0.732

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.259	0.805	20	115g
Mild (60–80°)	0.242	0.728	37	283g
at Tropicana Field	0.203	0.677	9	54g
Overall	0.240	0.732	58	414g

3 Cal Raleigh S 0.811

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.227	0.781	27	104g
Mild (60–80°)	0.233	0.826	71	252g
at Tropicana Field	0.286	1.214	2	5g
Overall	0.225	0.811	108	388g

4 Josh Naylor L 0.761

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.272	0.738	11	105g
Mild (60–80°)	0.270	0.768	40	265g
at Tropicana Field	0.222	0.611	0	5g
Overall	0.266	0.761	62	410g

5 Mitch Garver R 0.629

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.204	0.691	16	106g
Mild (60–80°)	0.212	0.664	18	160g
at Tropicana Field	0.231	0.923	2	4g
Overall	0.188	0.629	28	249g

6 Cole Young L 0.661

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.223	0.607	2	40g
Mild (60–80°)	0.212	0.618	10	116g
at Tropicana Field	0.286	1.143	1	2g
Overall	0.236	0.661	15	173g

7 Victor Robles R 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.279	0.655	0	58g
Mild (60–80°)	0.278	0.714	5	117g
at Tropicana Field	0.250	0.750	0	3g
Overall	0.266	0.679	5	173g

8 Weston Wilson R 0.687

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.246	0.762	9	70g
Mild (60–80°)	0.214	0.637	5	86g
at Tropicana Field	0.333	1.167	1	3g
Overall	0.227	0.687	9	125g

9 Buddy Kennedy R 0.372

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.097	0.313	0	14g
Mild (60–80°)	0.067	0.252	0	20g
at Tropicana Field	0.125	0.250	0	3g
Overall	0.098	0.372	1	36g

TB Tampa Bay Rays Confirmed

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.817

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.288	0.785	34	277g
Mild (60–80°)	0.307	0.837	35	251g
at Tropicana Field	0.322	0.879	19	125g
Overall	0.297	0.817	52	384g

2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.843

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.294	0.855	29	189g
Mild (60–80°)	0.301	0.889	27	157g
at Tropicana Field	0.298	0.898	12	68g
Overall	0.296	0.843	33	242g

3 Junior Caminero R 0.856

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.866	61	212g
Mild (60–80°)	0.259	0.856	50	177g
at Tropicana Field	0.304	0.997	19	66g
Overall	0.267	0.856	79	290g

4 Cedric Mullins L 0.681

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.216	0.674	40	276g
Mild (60–80°)	0.203	0.628	27	212g
at Tropicana Field	0.212	0.691	8	48g
Overall	0.221	0.681	47	363g

5 Chandler Simpson L 0.666

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.309	0.715	143g
Mild (60–80°)	0.284	0.669	110g
at Tropicana Field	0.274	0.653	48g
Overall	0.288	0.666	197g

6 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.709

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.206	0.699	6	38g
Mild (60–80°)	0.200	0.687	5	43g
at Tropicana Field	0.250	0.812	3	17g
Overall	0.212	0.709	6	48g

7 Taylor Walls S 0.581

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.200	0.565	4	189g
Mild (60–80°)	0.214	0.589	2	174g
at Tropicana Field	0.244	0.658	0	85g
Overall	0.208	0.581	5	259g

8 Richie Palacios L 0.675

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.244	0.694	9	151g
Mild (60–80°)	0.228	0.652	6	138g
at Tropicana Field	0.212	0.615	2	82g
Overall	0.239	0.675	9	178g

9 Hunter Feduccia L 0.583

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.212	0.608	2	79g
Mild (60–80°)	0.186	0.561	2	64g
at Tropicana Field	0.226	0.713	2	25g
Overall	0.204	0.583	2	94g

Injured List

SEA (8 on IL)

Rob Refsnyder DH Injured 10-Day
Julio Rodríguez CF Injured 7-Day
Brendan Donovan 3B Injured 10-Day
Cooper Criswell P Injured 60-Day
Will Wilson 3B Injured 60-Day
Logan Evans P Injured 60-Day
Matt Brash P Injured 15-Day
Carlos Vargas P Injured 60-Day

TB (9 on IL)

Steven Matz P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot P Injured 60-Day
Edwin Uceta P Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez P Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley P Injured 60-Day
Steven Wilson P Injured 60-Day
Jake Fraley RF Injured 10-Day
Gavin Lux LF Injured 60-Day
Jesse Scholtens P Injured 15-Day

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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction — July 12, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

SEA Seattle Mariners Confirmed

TB Tampa Bay Rays Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.