Who will win Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Boston Red Sox a 58% win probability for July 12, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction — Jul 12, 2026

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← Games Citi Field

BOS

Boston Red Sox

2 - 2

Live

NYM

New York Mets

58% Win Probability 42%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

GLM 5.2

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Grok 4.5

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.039 · expected total 8.6

85° (fcst) · wind 4 mph In From RF. · 47% humidity · day game · game 3 of series HP Shane Livensparger runs ×0.99 K ×0.94

BOS starter Locked

Payton Tolle

3.14 ERA · 9.0 K/9

starter 3.86 R/9 over ~5.6 ip

bullpen 3.51 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.98 runs

pen 3.78 FIP

NYM starter Locked

Zach Thornton

4.35 ERA · 8.7 K/9

starter 4.31 R/9 over ~4.9 ip

bullpen 4.34 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.61 runs

pen 3.95 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

BOS

2 games

6.0 avg runs

NYM

Team Data (season)

BOS		NYM
45-48	Record	40-56
4.11	Runs / g	4.12
3.83	Runs allowed / g	4.79
49%	Scored first	44%
41%	Cover -1.5	32%
61%	Cover +1.5	58%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/93/165

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	80%	48%	55%
Cover -1.5	70%	41%	41%
Cover +1.5	80%	61%	72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	80%	41%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	42%	46%
Team over 4.5	60%	44%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	50%	35%	41%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	54%	53%
Extra innings	0%	5%	12%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	45%	43%
Race to 4	70%	41%	42%
Race to 5	60%	38%	35%
Race to 6	40%	25%	28%
Race to 7	30%	16%	22%

NYM New York Mets n 10/96/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	42%	51%
Cover -1.5	20%	32%	37%
Cover +1.5	40%	58%	67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	34%	48%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	45%	52%
Team over 4.5	50%	35%	44%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	33%	43%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	50%	46%
Extra innings	10%	15%	8%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	39%	48%
Race to 4	50%	39%	43%
Race to 5	50%	31%	39%
Race to 6	50%	26%	28%
Race to 7	40%	22%	22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

BOS Boston Red Sox Confirmed

1 Anthony Seigler S 0.651

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.296	0.777	0	13g
Hot (80°+)	0.255	0.715	1	23g
at Citi Field	0.188	0.562	1	4g
Overall	0.235	0.651	2	55g

2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.692

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.257	0.729	14	114g
Hot (80°+)	0.284	0.760	11	104g
at Citi Field	0.200	0.650	0	4g
Overall	0.254	0.692	39	400g

3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.777

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.260	0.697	2	77g
Hot (80°+)	0.243	0.761	12	92g
at Citi Field	0.333	1.095	1	5g
Overall	0.253	0.777	48	341g

4 Romy Gonzalez R 0.772

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.277	0.806	9	76g
Hot (80°+)	0.322	0.882	5	67g
at Citi Field	0.000	0.154	0	5g
Overall	0.284	0.772	16	198g

5 Caleb Durbin R 0.688

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.241	0.670	7	65g
Hot (80°+)	0.226	0.627	4	52g
at Citi Field	0.364	0.897	0	5g
Overall	0.247	0.688	20	231g

6 Andruw Monasterio R 0.666

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.247	0.737	7	71g
Hot (80°+)	0.268	0.771	4	56g
at Citi Field	0.429	2.071	2	4g
Overall	0.234	0.666	10	188g

7 Jarren Duran L 0.754

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.255	0.725	9	106g
Hot (80°+)	0.287	0.887	20	103g
at Citi Field	0.211	0.549	0	5g
Overall	0.254	0.754	50	406g

8 Nate Eaton R 0.705

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.236	0.618	0	25g
Hot (80°+)	0.242	0.688	0	15g
at Citi Field	no games
Overall	0.261	0.705	2	56g

9 Connor Wong R 0.691

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.251	0.705	5	74g
Hot (80°+)	0.225	0.651	6	65g
at Citi Field	0.200	0.473	0	3g
Overall	0.260	0.691	14	229g

NYM New York Mets Confirmed

1 A.J. Ewing L 0.788

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.245	0.784	3	16g
Hot (80°+)	0.306	0.901	4	22g
at Citi Field	0.305	0.929	6	30g
Overall	0.276	0.788	7	56g

2 Juan Soto L 0.965

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.261	0.887	28	112g
Hot (80°+)	0.297	1.003	33	111g
at Citi Field	0.285	0.973	33	119g
Overall	0.281	0.965	109	408g

3 Francisco Lindor S 0.800

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.254	0.757	19	101g
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.738	17	102g
at Citi Field	0.281	0.842	34	177g
Overall	0.264	0.800	70	364g

4 Eric Wagaman R 0.675

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.266	0.772	9	59g
Hot (80°+)	0.255	0.680	2	36g
at Citi Field	0.222	0.708	2	17g
Overall	0.247	0.675	13	177g

5 Carson Benge L 0.730

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.288	0.737	2	23g
Hot (80°+)	0.340	0.970	6	25g
at Citi Field	0.283	0.708	3	47g
Overall	0.266	0.730	11	93g

6 Tyrone Taylor R 0.630

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.247	0.657	5	95g
Hot (80°+)	0.230	0.689	7	82g
at Citi Field	0.235	0.633	6	149g
Overall	0.229	0.630	15	310g

7 Luis Torrens R 0.615

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.211	0.581	3	60g
Hot (80°+)	0.214	0.561	2	68g
at Citi Field	0.206	0.547	3	96g
Overall	0.223	0.615	10	199g

8 Brett Baty L 0.680

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.232	0.639	4	69g
Hot (80°+)	0.241	0.686	7	68g
at Citi Field	0.260	0.752	17	148g
Overall	0.239	0.680	26	272g

9 Zack Short R 0.514

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.157	0.500	1	29g
Hot (80°+)	0.150	0.444	0	24g
at Citi Field	0.071	0.349	0	11g
Overall	0.162	0.514	2	92g

Injured List

BOS (11 on IL)

Connelly Early P Injured 15-Day
Ranger Suarez P Injured 15-Day
Marcelo Mayer 2B Injured 10-Day
Kutter Crawford P Injured 60-Day
Tanner Houck P Injured 60-Day
Roman Anthony LF Injured 60-Day
Trevor Story SS Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas 1B Injured 60-Day
Garrett Crochet P Injured 60-Day
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B Injured 10-Day
Johan Oviedo P Injured 60-Day

NYM (9 on IL)

Mark Vientos 1B Injured 10-Day
Austin Warren P Injured 15-Day
Marcus Semien 2B Injured 10-Day
Tylor Megill P Injured 60-Day
Dedniel Núñez P Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett P Injured 60-Day
Justin Hagenman P Injured 60-Day
Luis Robert Jr. CF Injured 60-Day
Clay Holmes P Injured 60-Day

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Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets prediction — July 12, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

BOS Boston Red Sox Confirmed

NYM New York Mets Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.