Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds prediction — July 12, 2026
← Games
Great American Ball Park
CHC
Chicago Cubs
8 - 4
Live
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
56%
Win Probability
44%
O
The Oracle
Pro
Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Grok 4.5
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GLM 5.2
Winner
CHC 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Starting Pitchers
park ×1.00 · temp ×1.027 · expected total 9.2
81° (fcst) · wind 8 mph In From RF. · 78% humidity · day game · game 3 of series
HP Alex MacKay
runs ×0.92
K ×1.06
CHC starter
Locked
4.31 ERA · 10.0 K/9
starter 4.40 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 4.45 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.55 runs
pen 4.80 FIP
CIN starter
Locked
3.92 ERA · 7.2 K/9
starter 4.22 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 5.01 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.68 runs
pen 5.12 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
5
CHC
6 games
8.3 avg runs
1
CIN
Team Data (season)
| CHC | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 53-42 | Record | 43-51 |
| 5.01 | Runs / g | 4.16 |
| 4.51 | Runs allowed / g | 4.76 |
| 45% | Scored first | 41% |
| 40% | Cover -1.5 | 33% |
| 66% | Cover +1.5 | 57% |
Form & Market Trends
CHC Chicago Cubs
n 10/95/170
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 60% | 56% | 56% |
| Cover -1.5 | 60% | 40% | 41% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 66% | 68% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 38% | 51% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 50% | 55% | 45% |
| Team over 4.5 | 60% | 53% | 43% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 40% | 44% | 47% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 40% | 39% | 51% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 12% | 6% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 40% | 48% | 55% |
| Race to 4 | 60% | 49% | 48% |
| Race to 5 | 60% | 44% | 36% |
| Race to 6 | 40% | 35% | 31% |
| Race to 7 | 30% | 31% | 24% |
CIN Cincinnati Reds
n 10/94/164
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 40% | 46% | 51% |
| Cover -1.5 | 30% | 33% | 37% |
| Cover +1.5 | 50% | 57% | 64% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 44% | 40% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 57% | 44% |
| Team over 4.5 | 30% | 38% | 45% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 30% | 39% | 40% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 40% | 49% | 49% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 11% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Race to 4 | 40% | 39% | 41% |
| Race to 5 | 20% | 33% | 36% |
| Race to 6 | 20% | 28% | 29% |
| Race to 7 | 20% | 18% | 20% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
CHC Chicago Cubs Confirmed
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 0.764
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.252 | 0.714 | 12 | 88g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.279 | 0.868 | 23 | 105g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.164 | 0.502 | 2 | 16g |
| Overall | 0.254 | 0.764 | 62 | 383g |
2 Seiya Suzuki R 0.823
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.272 | 0.904 | 22 | 91g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.282 | 0.833 | 17 | 109g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.396 | 1.211 | 3 | 15g |
| Overall | 0.264 | 0.823 | 71 | 370g |
3 Alex Bregman R 0.756
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.224 | 0.690 | 14 | 100g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.294 | 0.813 | 6 | 54g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.143 | 0.629 | 1 | 4g |
| Overall | 0.258 | 0.756 | 52 | 357g |
4 Carson Kelly R 0.726
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.286 | 0.844 | 13 | 71g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.290 | 0.809 | 10 | 75g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.290 | 0.869 | 2 | 10g |
| Overall | 0.251 | 0.726 | 33 | 279g |
5 Michael Busch L 0.803
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.245 | 0.757 | 8 | 88g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.286 | 0.888 | 29 | 110g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.227 | 0.790 | 2 | 16g |
| Overall | 0.251 | 0.803 | 70 | 409g |
6 Nico Hoerner R 0.701
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.303 | 0.781 | 7 | 99g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.298 | 0.730 | 4 | 113g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.231 | 0.567 | 0 | 14g |
| Overall | 0.276 | 0.701 | 19 | 408g |
7 Ian Happ S 0.761
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.230 | 0.687 | 11 | 97g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.262 | 0.870 | 24 | 111g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.194 | 0.612 | 1 | 16g |
| Overall | 0.235 | 0.761 | 67 | 402g |
8 Dansby Swanson R 0.704
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.244 | 0.719 | 16 | 99g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.274 | 0.792 | 20 | 111g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.217 | 0.738 | 3 | 16g |
| Overall | 0.234 | 0.704 | 56 | 407g |
9 Kevin Alcántara R 0.485
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.227 | 0.488 | 0 | 11g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.600 | 1.200 | 0 | 5g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.222 | 0.485 | 0 | 29g |
CIN Cincinnati Reds Confirmed
1 Elly De La Cruz S 0.798
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.251 | 0.789 | 23 | 106g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.269 | 0.785 | 14 | 143g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.283 | 0.855 | 32 | 198g |
| Overall | 0.263 | 0.798 | 62 | 399g |
2 Sal Stewart R 0.819
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.264 | 0.806 | 4 | 25g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.312 | 1.074 | 12 | 31g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.233 | 0.761 | 10 | 58g |
| Overall | 0.258 | 0.819 | 24 | 114g |
3 Spencer Steer R 0.722
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.233 | 0.727 | 16 | 108g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.245 | 0.767 | 22 | 140g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.238 | 0.752 | 34 | 201g |
| Overall | 0.235 | 0.722 | 55 | 396g |
4 JJ Bleday L 0.761
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.264 | 0.825 | 13 | 77g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.236 | 0.756 | 11 | 87g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.286 | 1.039 | 12 | 37g |
| Overall | 0.234 | 0.761 | 50 | 323g |
5 Eugenio Suárez R 0.771
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.228 | 0.789 | 31 | 121g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.259 | 0.838 | 22 | 89g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.216 | 0.750 | 11 | 43g |
| Overall | 0.235 | 0.771 | 92 | 395g |
6 Tyler Stephenson R 0.742
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.271 | 0.889 | 15 | 85g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.243 | 0.738 | 15 | 110g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.242 | 0.730 | 18 | 148g |
| Overall | 0.245 | 0.742 | 38 | 300g |
7 Noelvi Marte R 0.654
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.181 | 0.507 | 4 | 51g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.236 | 0.677 | 14 | 96g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.214 | 0.608 | 11 | 98g |
| Overall | 0.232 | 0.654 | 24 | 198g |
8 Edwin Arroyo S 0.554
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.217 | 0.435 | 0 | 9g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.231 | 0.550 | 0 | 14g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.173 | 0.404 | 0 | 17g |
| Overall | 0.240 | 0.554 | 0 | 32g |
9 Ke'Bryan Hayes R 0.557
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.260 | 0.679 | 5 | 76g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.222 | 0.552 | 3 | 91g |
| at Great American Ball Park | 0.200 | 0.578 | 3 | 51g |
| Overall | 0.221 | 0.557 | 11 | 295g |
Injured List
CHC (14 on IL)
- Hoby Milner P Injured 15-Day
- Edward Cabrera P Injured 15-Day
- Ethan Roberts P Injured 15-Day
- Ben Brown P Injured 15-Day
- Matt Shaw RF Injured 10-Day
- Hunter Harvey P Injured 60-Day
- Shelby Miller P Injured 60-Day
- Justin Steele P Injured 60-Day
- Daniel Palencia P Injured 15-Day
- Porter Hodge P Injured 60-Day
- Jameson Taillon P Injured 15-Day
- Riley Martin P Injured 60-Day
CIN (7 on IL)
- Dane Myers CF Injured 10-Day
- Tony Santillan P Injured 15-Day
- Matt McLain 2B Injured 10-Day
- Blake Dunn CF Injured 10-Day
- Nick Lodolo P Injured 15-Day
- Brandon Williamson P Injured 60-Day
- Graham Ashcraft P Injured 60-Day
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