Who will win Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 60% win probability for July 12, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction — Jul 12, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Kansas City Royals

2 - 7

Live

BAL

Baltimore Orioles

40% Win Probability 60%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.024 · expected total 10.3

82° (fcst) · wind 8 mph R To L. · 74% humidity · day game · game 3 of series HP Ryan Additon runs ×1.01 K ×1.03

KC starter Locked

Seth Lugo

4.56 ERA · 7.2 K/9

starter 4.89 R/9 over ~5.5 ip

bullpen 5.66 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.46 runs

pen 5.16 FIP

BAL starter Locked

Shane Baz

4.21 ERA · 7.6 K/9

starter 4.58 R/9 over ~5.8 ip

bullpen 4.63 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.84 runs

pen 3.93 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

5 games

10.4 avg runs

BAL

Team Data (season)

KC		BAL
38-58	Record	45-51
4.26	Runs / g	4.57
5.11	Runs allowed / g	4.83
43%	Scored first	46%
30%	Cover -1.5	40%
54%	Cover +1.5	61%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

KC Kansas City Royals n 10/96/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	40%	51%
Cover -1.5	30%	30%	36%
Cover +1.5	30%	54%	63%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	20%	34%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	46%	42%
Team over 4.5	30%	39%	33%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	36%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	70%	52%	46%
Extra innings	0%	7%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	20%	38%	43%
Race to 4	20%	32%	35%
Race to 5	20%	24%	26%
Race to 6	10%	19%	25%
Race to 7	10%	13%	19%

BAL Baltimore Orioles n 10/96/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	60%	47%	46%
Cover -1.5	50%	40%	30%
Cover +1.5	70%	61%	61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	36%	40%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	53%	44%
Team over 4.5	50%	47%	36%
Team F5 over 2.5	70%	41%	39%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	47%	51%
Extra innings	0%	6%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	41%	46%
Race to 4	30%	36%	38%
Race to 5	40%	38%	31%
Race to 6	30%	30%	20%
Race to 7	10%	21%	14%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

KC Kansas City Royals Confirmed

1 Carter Jensen L 0.772

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.251	0.802	14	82g
Hot (80°+)	0.258	0.808	6	34g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.000	0.125	0	2g
Overall	0.250	0.772	16	108g

2 Bobby Witt Jr. R 0.883

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.316	0.919	61	315g
Hot (80°+)	0.325	0.972	35	147g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.227	0.659	2	10g
Overall	0.305	0.883	68	414g

3 Jac Caglianone L 0.674

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.215	0.679	17	115g
Hot (80°+)	0.198	0.606	9	57g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.375	1.125	1	2g
Overall	0.219	0.674	22	151g

4 Lane Thomas R 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.206	0.630	15	179g
Hot (80°+)	0.266	0.830	17	102g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.000	0.000	0	5g
Overall	0.222	0.679	28	260g

5 Vinnie Pasquantino L 0.751

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.254	0.752	45	292g
Hot (80°+)	0.268	0.819	26	128g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.242	0.797	2	9g
Overall	0.253	0.751	57	366g

6 Salvador Perez R 0.707

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.242	0.719	56	310g
Hot (80°+)	0.270	0.792	29	140g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.355	0.806	1	8g
Overall	0.243	0.707	69	407g

7 Michael Massey L 0.692

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.256	0.695	24	208g
Hot (80°+)	0.260	0.738	9	82g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.333	0.913	1	7g
Overall	0.257	0.692	24	259g

8 Josh Rojas L 0.599

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.219	0.616	9	180g
Hot (80°+)	0.163	0.452	1	46g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.160	0.450	0	7g
Overall	0.211	0.599	11	225g

9 Isaac Collins S 0.721

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.746	10	160g
Hot (80°+)	0.268	0.818	6	56g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.333	1.167	1	2g
Overall	0.247	0.721	14	232g

BAL Baltimore Orioles Confirmed

1 Gunnar Henderson L 0.798

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.816	53	295g
Hot (80°+)	0.288	0.879	29	154g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.264	0.812	43	211g
Overall	0.262	0.798	71	410g

2 Taylor Ward R 0.763

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.232	0.743	54	318g
Hot (80°+)	0.284	0.842	17	103g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.257	0.713	3	57g
Overall	0.242	0.763	67	408g

3 Dylan Beavers L 0.721

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.247	0.753	5	66g
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.683	1	18g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.240	0.761	4	41g
Overall	0.230	0.721	6	77g

4 Pete Alonso R 0.826

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.254	0.830	72	309g
Hot (80°+)	0.265	0.871	31	121g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.241	0.811	13	55g
Overall	0.256	0.826	97	433g

5 Samuel Basallo L 0.704

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.222	0.709	16	89g
Hot (80°+)	0.239	0.891	12	32g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.228	0.699	11	61g
Overall	0.225	0.704	19	113g

6 Blaze Alexander R 0.710

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.241	0.636	6	138g
Hot (80°+)	0.255	0.685	3	52g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.315	0.783	2	45g
Overall	0.262	0.710	14	216g

7 Colton Cowser L 0.701

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.226	0.710	35	239g
Hot (80°+)	0.213	0.655	20	129g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.236	0.718	21	163g
Overall	0.222	0.701	48	330g

8 Leody Taveras S 0.627

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.231	0.643	14	221g
Hot (80°+)	0.229	0.660	3	44g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.252	0.688	1	47g
Overall	0.226	0.627	18	290g

9 Jackson Holliday L 0.661

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.222	0.656	23	188g
Hot (80°+)	0.257	0.722	10	108g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.235	0.672	15	125g
Overall	0.227	0.661	27	253g

Injured List

KC (10 on IL)

Cole Ragans P Injured 60-Day
James McArthur P Injured 60-Day
Kyle Isbel CF Injured 10-Day
Maikel Garcia 3B Injured 10-Day
Alec Marsh P Injured 60-Day
Carlos Estévez P Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears P Injured 15-Day
Jonathan India 2B Injured 60-Day
Kris Bubic P Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold P Injured 15-Day

BAL (8 on IL)

Keegan Akin P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Helsley P Injured 15-Day
Colin Selby P Injured 60-Day
Zach Eflin P Injured 60-Day
Ryan Mountcastle 1B Injured 60-Day
Jordan Westburg 3B Injured 60-Day
Chris Bassitt P Injured 15-Day
Félix Bautista P Injured 60-Day

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Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles prediction — July 12, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

KC Kansas City Royals Confirmed

BAL Baltimore Orioles Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.