Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction — July 12, 2026
O
The Oracle
Pro
Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
MIL 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
PIT 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
MIL 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
PIT 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Grok 4.5
Winner
MIL 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
PIT 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
—
GLM 5.2
Winner
MIL 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Starting Pitchers
park ×0.99 · temp ×1.030 · expected total 8.8
81° · wind 5 mph L To R. · 79% humidity · day game · game 3 of series
HP Alfonso Márquez
runs ×1.13
K ×0.96
MIL starter
Locked
5.24 ERA · 8.4 K/9
starter 4.33 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 3.73 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.18 runs
pen 3.72 FIP
PIT starter
Locked
3.57 ERA · 10.8 K/9
starter 4.23 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 4.81 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.57 runs
pen 4.44 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
1
MIL
6 games
9.5 avg runs
5
PIT
Team Data (season)
| MIL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 59-37 | Record | 50-47 |
| 5.09 | Runs / g | 5.32 |
| 3.78 | Runs allowed / g | 4.87 |
| 53% | Scored first | 57% |
| 46% | Cover -1.5 | 37% |
| 76% | Cover +1.5 | 62% |
Form & Market Trends
MIL Milwaukee Brewers
n 10/96/171
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 50% | 61% | 58% |
| Cover -1.5 | 20% | 46% | 42% |
| Cover +1.5 | 80% | 76% | 71% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 30% | 49% | 48% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 40% | 43% | 46% |
| Team over 4.5 | 40% | 51% | 47% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 46% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 50% | 51% | 46% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 10% | 7% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 30% | 50% | 57% |
| Race to 4 | 50% | 52% | 47% |
| Race to 5 | 30% | 42% | 41% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 33% | 32% |
| Race to 7 | 20% | 22% | 26% |
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates
n 10/97/162
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 70% | 52% | 44% |
| Cover -1.5 | 50% | 37% | 28% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 62% | 65% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 30% | 46% | 36% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 60% | 58% | 38% |
| Team over 4.5 | 80% | 54% | 28% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 60% | 47% | 35% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 50% | 52% | 44% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 9% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 70% | 52% | 43% |
| Race to 4 | 50% | 43% | 32% |
| Race to 5 | 50% | 37% | 23% |
| Race to 6 | 50% | 37% | 16% |
| Race to 7 | 50% | 30% | 14% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
MIL Milwaukee Brewers Confirmed
1 Christian Yelich L 0.790
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.265 | 0.771 | 34 | 213g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.303 | 0.864 | 11 | 71g |
| at PNC Park | 0.357 | 1.026 | 2 | 7g |
| Overall | 0.269 | 0.790 | 46 | 294g |
2 Jackson Chourio R 0.798
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.273 | 0.803 | 45 | 244g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.312 | 0.923 | 19 | 81g |
| at PNC Park | 0.236 | 0.603 | 1 | 16g |
| Overall | 0.276 | 0.798 | 59 | 353g |
3 Brice Turang L 0.750
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.279 | 0.785 | 30 | 296g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.234 | 0.681 | 12 | 96g |
| at PNC Park | 0.194 | 0.549 | 1 | 17g |
| Overall | 0.268 | 0.750 | 40 | 414g |
4 Jake Bauers L 0.766
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.233 | 0.759 | 33 | 230g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.204 | 0.755 | 9 | 67g |
| at PNC Park | 0.283 | 0.887 | 3 | 15g |
| Overall | 0.235 | 0.766 | 39 | 296g |
5 Gary Sánchez R 0.726
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.212 | 0.680 | 10 | 96g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.245 | 0.757 | 5 | 41g |
| at PNC Park | 0.312 | 1.138 | 2 | 7g |
| Overall | 0.223 | 0.726 | 24 | 174g |
6 Garrett Mitchell L 0.789
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.261 | 0.819 | 16 | 127g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.347 | 1.013 | 6 | 47g |
| at PNC Park | 0.176 | 0.557 | 0 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.258 | 0.789 | 17 | 182g |
7 Sal Frelick L 0.685
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.264 | 0.678 | 14 | 283g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.262 | 0.648 | 4 | 90g |
| at PNC Park | 0.269 | 0.694 | 1 | 15g |
| Overall | 0.264 | 0.685 | 19 | 388g |
8 Joey Ortiz R 0.633
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.234 | 0.636 | 12 | 264g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.244 | 0.664 | 7 | 89g |
| at PNC Park | 0.236 | 0.639 | 1 | 17g |
| Overall | 0.228 | 0.633 | 21 | 386g |
9 Braden Shewmake L 0.530
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.200 | 0.557 | 4 | 49g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.222 | 0.556 | 0 | 4g |
| at PNC Park | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 1g |
| Overall | 0.194 | 0.530 | 4 | 60g |
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed
1 Jake Mangum S 0.711
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.236 | 0.557 | 1 | 51g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.313 | 0.754 | 2 | 94g |
| at PNC Park | 0.333 | 0.823 | 2 | 42g |
| Overall | 0.301 | 0.711 | 5 | 194g |
2 Brandon Lowe L 0.788
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.242 | 0.763 | 14 | 72g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.254 | 0.806 | 32 | 127g |
| at PNC Park | 0.227 | 0.721 | 10 | 52g |
| Overall | 0.250 | 0.788 | 73 | 331g |
3 Bryan Reynolds S 0.777
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.271 | 0.780 | 15 | 102g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.314 | 0.913 | 28 | 143g |
| at PNC Park | 0.290 | 0.864 | 29 | 207g |
| Overall | 0.266 | 0.777 | 54 | 407g |
4 Esmerlyn Valdez R 1.088
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.343 | 1.080 | 3 | 10g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.281 | 0.903 | 3 | 16g |
| at PNC Park | 0.327 | 1.278 | 8 | 15g |
| Overall | 0.309 | 1.088 | 10 | 28g |
5 Ryan O'Hearn L 0.790
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.244 | 0.740 | 7 | 78g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.269 | 0.795 | 17 | 135g |
| at PNC Park | 0.311 | 0.968 | 13 | 45g |
| Overall | 0.276 | 0.790 | 48 | 373g |
6 Nick Gonzales R 0.704
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.265 | 0.703 | 5 | 77g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.253 | 0.651 | 5 | 123g |
| at PNC Park | 0.261 | 0.643 | 2 | 144g |
| Overall | 0.278 | 0.704 | 16 | 281g |
7 Marcell Ozuna R 0.809
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.280 | 0.836 | 17 | 107g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.279 | 0.878 | 31 | 138g |
| at PNC Park | 0.223 | 0.683 | 6 | 37g |
| Overall | 0.260 | 0.809 | 68 | 370g |
8 Jared Triolo R 0.625
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.257 | 0.711 | 5 | 89g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.242 | 0.688 | 8 | 102g |
| at PNC Park | 0.233 | 0.639 | 8 | 145g |
| Overall | 0.223 | 0.625 | 17 | 295g |
9 Henry Davis R 0.519
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.156 | 0.484 | 3 | 49g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.182 | 0.545 | 5 | 57g |
| at PNC Park | 0.188 | 0.581 | 9 | 96g |
| Overall | 0.162 | 0.519 | 16 | 186g |
Injured List
MIL (11 on IL)
- Kyle Harrison P Injured 15-Day
- Joel Kuhnel P Injured 15-Day
- David Hamilton 3B Injured 10-Day
- Quinn Priester P Injured 60-Day
- Angel Zerpa P Injured 60-Day
- Carlos Rodriguez P Injured 15-Day
- Rob Zastryzny P Injured 15-Day
- DL Hall P Injured 15-Day
- Brandon Lockridge LF Injured 60-Day
- Brandon Woodruff P Injured 60-Day
- Brian Fitzpatrick P Injured 60-Day
PIT (7 on IL)
- Spencer Horwitz 1B Injured 10-Day
- Endy Rodríguez C Injured 10-Day
- Evan Sisk P Injured 15-Day
- Oneil Cruz CF Injured 10-Day
- Chris Devenski P Injured 60-Day
- Konnor Griffin SS Injured 60-Day
- Wilber Dotel P Injured 15-Day
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