Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres prediction — July 11, 2026
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The Oracle
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Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
TOR 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GLM 5.2
Winner
TOR 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
TOR 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Grok 4.5
Winner
TOR 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
TOR 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
SD 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
SD 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Starting Pitchers
park ×0.92 · temp ×0.997 · expected total 7.6
71° · wind 8 mph L To R. · 85% humidity · night game · game 2 of series
HP Adam Hamari
runs ×0.98
K ×1.03
TOR starter
Locked
3.72 ERA · 8.3 K/9
starter 3.79 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 4.05 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.55 runs
pen 3.90 FIP
SD starter
Locked
5.36 ERA · 8.2 K/9
starter 4.79 R/9 over ~4.8 ip
bullpen 3.99 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.04 runs
pen 3.87 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
1
TOR
2 games
11.5 avg runs
1
SD
Team Data (season)
| TOR | SD | |
|---|---|---|
| 45-50 | Record | 47-48 |
| 4.08 | Runs / g | 3.94 |
| 4.44 | Runs allowed / g | 4.40 |
| 42% | Scored first | 46% |
| 36% | Cover -1.5 | 37% |
| 64% | Cover +1.5 | 62% |
Form & Market Trends
TOR Toronto Blue Jays
n 10/95/180
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 50% | 47% | 58% |
| Cover -1.5 | 50% | 36% | 42% |
| Cover +1.5 | 60% | 64% | 70% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 38% | 43% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 60% | 48% | 53% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 39% | 48% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 50% | 26% | 44% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 50% | 54% | 51% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 8% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 50% | 36% | 51% |
| Race to 4 | 50% | 32% | 49% |
| Race to 5 | 40% | 28% | 41% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 21% | 34% |
| Race to 7 | 30% | 15% | 26% |
SD San Diego Padres
n 10/95/165
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 40% | 49% | 55% |
| Cover -1.5 | 30% | 37% | 37% |
| Cover +1.5 | 50% | 62% | 69% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 38% | 42% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 40% | 41% |
| Team over 4.5 | 40% | 37% | 42% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 40% | 35% | 36% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 70% | 38% | 48% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 5% | 7% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 50% | 36% | 43% |
| Race to 4 | 40% | 31% | 39% |
| Race to 5 | 40% | 32% | 35% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 23% | 25% |
| Race to 7 | 20% | 20% | 21% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
TOR Toronto Blue Jays Confirmed
1 Ernie Clement R 0.727
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.272 | 0.682 | 18 | 303g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.278 | 0.701 | 22 | 324g |
| at Petco Park | 0.385 | 1.044 | 1 | 4g |
| Overall | 0.285 | 0.727 | 29 | 406g |
2 Nathan Lukes L 0.732
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.270 | 0.735 | 16 | 184g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.258 | 0.689 | 11 | 181g |
| at Petco Park | 0.200 | 0.400 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.270 | 0.732 | 17 | 235g |
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.872
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.308 | 0.870 | 50 | 320g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.295 | 0.834 | 43 | 335g |
| at Petco Park | 0.350 | 0.959 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.303 | 0.872 | 67 | 423g |
4 George Springer R 0.784
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.261 | 0.794 | 46 | 275g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.256 | 0.792 | 53 | 296g |
| at Petco Park | 0.118 | 0.235 | 0 | 4g |
| Overall | 0.255 | 0.784 | 64 | 367g |
5 Kazuma Okamoto R 0.772
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.239 | 0.778 | 16 | 69g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.237 | 0.776 | 18 | 77g |
| at Petco Park | 0.143 | 0.905 | 1 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.235 | 0.772 | 22 | 92g |
6 Daulton Varsho L 0.728
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.216 | 0.702 | 41 | 245g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.226 | 0.719 | 37 | 251g |
| at Petco Park | 0.222 | 0.763 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.227 | 0.728 | 48 | 307g |
7 Alejandro Kirk R 0.726
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.258 | 0.712 | 21 | 204g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.255 | 0.718 | 24 | 224g |
| at Petco Park | 0.250 | 0.667 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.262 | 0.726 | 27 | 276g |
8 Andrés Giménez L 0.608
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.231 | 0.606 | 21 | 287g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.240 | 0.626 | 18 | 254g |
| at Petco Park | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.234 | 0.608 | 25 | 371g |
9 Jonatan Clase S 0.636
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.248 | 0.720 | 5 | 43g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.227 | 0.620 | 4 | 43g |
| at Petco Park | 0.400 | 1.571 | 1 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.230 | 0.636 | 5 | 65g |
SD San Diego Padres Confirmed
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 0.797
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.274 | 0.791 | 41 | 260g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.277 | 0.814 | 46 | 289g |
| at Petco Park | 0.280 | 0.847 | 34 | 182g |
| Overall | 0.275 | 0.797 | 55 | 361g |
2 Jackson Merrill L 0.763
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.261 | 0.759 | 39 | 275g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.253 | 0.740 | 40 | 291g |
| at Petco Park | 0.245 | 0.735 | 24 | 190g |
| Overall | 0.265 | 0.763 | 52 | 373g |
3 Xander Bogaerts R 0.689
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.244 | 0.688 | 28 | 253g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.246 | 0.664 | 22 | 271g |
| at Petco Park | 0.241 | 0.651 | 15 | 170g |
| Overall | 0.252 | 0.689 | 32 | 347g |
4 Manny Machado R 0.770
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.247 | 0.736 | 51 | 299g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.258 | 0.770 | 59 | 325g |
| at Petco Park | 0.260 | 0.780 | 38 | 206g |
| Overall | 0.255 | 0.770 | 77 | 413g |
5 Gavin Sheets L 0.709
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.245 | 0.729 | 36 | 292g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.237 | 0.712 | 34 | 285g |
| at Petco Park | 0.205 | 0.646 | 12 | 119g |
| Overall | 0.238 | 0.709 | 43 | 376g |
6 Ty France R 0.678
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.252 | 0.685 | 25 | 268g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.244 | 0.681 | 23 | 217g |
| at Petco Park | 0.264 | 0.802 | 6 | 36g |
| Overall | 0.248 | 0.678 | 31 | 349g |
7 Jake Cronenworth L 0.683
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.251 | 0.745 | 28 | 255g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.231 | 0.688 | 24 | 267g |
| at Petco Park | 0.235 | 0.709 | 16 | 171g |
| Overall | 0.232 | 0.683 | 31 | 345g |
8 Luis Campusano R 0.677
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.252 | 0.730 | 9 | 91g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.240 | 0.704 | 8 | 99g |
| at Petco Park | 0.213 | 0.640 | 7 | 67g |
| Overall | 0.228 | 0.677 | 12 | 127g |
9 Sung-Mun Song L 0.605
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.222 | 0.612 | 1 | 38g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.164 | 0.470 | 0 | 34g |
| at Petco Park | 0.178 | 0.493 | 0 | 22g |
| Overall | 0.217 | 0.605 | 1 | 41g |
Injured List
TOR (10 on IL)
- Jesús Sánchez RF Injured 10-Day
- Anthony Santander RF Injured 60-Day
- Max Scherzer P Injured 15-Day
- Lenyn Sosa 2B Injured 10-Day
- José Berríos P Injured 60-Day
- Addison Barger RF Injured 10-Day
- Yimi García P Injured 60-Day
- Bowden Francis P Injured 60-Day
- Joe Mantiply P Injured 60-Day
- Cody Ponce P Injured 60-Day
SD (11 on IL)
- David Morgan P Injured 15-Day
- Jason Adam P Injured 15-Day
- Samad Taylor LF Injured 10-Day
- Lucas Giolito P Injured 15-Day
- Randy Vásquez P Injured 15-Day
- Nick Pivetta P Injured 60-Day
- Bryan Hoeing P Injured 60-Day
- Freddy Fermin C Injured 10-Day
- Joe Musgrove P Injured 60-Day
- Jeremiah Estrada P Injured 15-Day
- Ramón Laureano LF Injured 60-Day
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