Who will win Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Atlanta Braves a 54% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Busch Stadium

ATL

Atlanta Braves

1 - 4

Final

STL

St. Louis Cardinals

54% Win Probability 46%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

ATL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.94 · temp ×1.021 · expected total 8.4

79° · wind 11 mph In From LF. · 92% humidity · night game · game 2 of series HP Dan Iassogna runs ×1.05 K ×1.00

ATL starter Locked

Reynaldo López

3.50 ERA · 7.9 K/9

starter 4.13 R/9 over ~4.7 ip

bullpen 3.36 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.62 runs

pen 3.52 FIP

STL starter Locked

Matthew Liberatore

5.00 ERA · 8.5 K/9

starter 5.29 R/9 over ~5.0 ip

bullpen 4.58 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.78 runs

pen 4.25 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

ATL

5 games

7.6 avg runs

STL

Team Data (season)

ATL		STL
54-40	Record	50-44
4.85	Runs / g	4.53
3.88	Runs allowed / g	4.46
54%	Scored first	56%
47%	Cover -1.5	36%
71%	Cover +1.5	67%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

ATL Atlanta Braves n 10/94/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	57%	47%
Cover -1.5	40%	47%	34%
Cover +1.5	70%	71%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	47%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	51%	49%
Team over 4.5	60%	51%	41%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	44%	42%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	53%	51%
Extra innings	10%	7%	10%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	51%	41%
Race to 4	40%	47%	40%
Race to 5	40%	41%	33%
Race to 6	20%	33%	28%
Race to 7	20%	26%	23%

STL St. Louis Cardinals n 10/94/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	53%	48%
Cover -1.5	40%	36%	32%
Cover +1.5	70%	67%	61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	46%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	45%	51%
Team over 4.5	20%	47%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	47%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	47%	51%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	50%	40%
Race to 4	30%	35%	35%
Race to 5	20%	35%	31%
Race to 6	10%	29%	26%
Race to 7	10%	19%	19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

ATL Atlanta Braves Confirmed

1 Michael Harris II L 0.732

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.271	0.751	16	111g
Mild (60–80°)	0.271	0.729	29	220g
at Busch Stadium	0.263	0.632	0	5g
Overall	0.268	0.732	53	360g

2 Ozzie Albies S 0.699

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.295	0.799	15	109g
Mild (60–80°)	0.248	0.705	27	211g
at Busch Stadium	0.067	0.218	0	8g
Overall	0.250	0.699	40	352g

3 Matt Olson L 0.828

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.263	0.827	28	127g
Mild (60–80°)	0.263	0.842	49	240g
at Busch Stadium	0.156	0.385	0	8g
Overall	0.261	0.828	83	420g

4 Drake Baldwin L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.282	0.837	10	52g
Mild (60–80°)	0.278	0.840	25	124g
at Busch Stadium	0.250	0.544	0	5g
Overall	0.266	0.789	34	195g

5 Mauricio Dubón R 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.264	0.729	11	112g
Mild (60–80°)	0.251	0.655	13	283g
at Busch Stadium	0.214	0.767	1	4g
Overall	0.260	0.679	21	362g

6 Austin Riley R 0.713

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.217	0.609	10	97g
Mild (60–80°)	0.239	0.702	25	172g
at Busch Stadium	0.400	1.005	1	6g
Overall	0.244	0.713	44	306g

7 Eli White R 0.681

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.194	0.608	6	67g
Mild (60–80°)	0.224	0.613	8	132g
at Busch Stadium	0.333	1.000	0	2g
Overall	0.238	0.681	15	196g

8 Joey Bart R 0.716

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.233	0.747	11	65g
Mild (60–80°)	0.243	0.711	13	109g
at Busch Stadium	0.062	0.205	0	10g
Overall	0.251	0.716	21	206g

9 Jorge Mateo R 0.628

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.215	0.624	5	71g
Mild (60–80°)	0.204	0.615	8	95g
at Busch Stadium	0.125	0.375	0	4g
Overall	0.222	0.628	10	171g

STL St. Louis Cardinals Confirmed

1 JJ Wetherholt L 0.742

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.278	0.743	8	66g
Mild (60–80°)	0.292	0.810	9	56g
at Busch Stadium	0.242	0.655	6	46g
Overall	0.262	0.742	13	89g

2 Iván Herrera R 0.787

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.278	0.774	22	193g
Mild (60–80°)	0.306	0.866	26	163g
at Busch Stadium	0.245	0.724	20	139g
Overall	0.276	0.787	35	273g

3 Alec Burleson L 0.773

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.286	0.811	47	283g
Mild (60–80°)	0.277	0.759	25	202g
at Busch Stadium	0.283	0.784	25	201g
Overall	0.277	0.773	54	384g

4 Jordan Walker R 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.232	0.674	23	181g
Mild (60–80°)	0.248	0.711	19	150g
at Busch Stadium	0.247	0.708	16	127g
Overall	0.244	0.708	33	254g

5 Lars Nootbaar L 0.720

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.239	0.721	21	203g
Mild (60–80°)	0.255	0.745	14	152g
at Busch Stadium	0.251	0.757	14	138g
Overall	0.241	0.720	28	275g

6 Masyn Winn R 0.687

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.258	0.687	19	256g
Mild (60–80°)	0.262	0.683	14	190g
at Busch Stadium	0.252	0.678	14	191g
Overall	0.257	0.687	28	365g

7 Bryan Torres L 0.703

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.154	0.632	3	20g
Mild (60–80°)	0.222	0.893	2	12g
at Busch Stadium	0.158	0.588	2	16g
Overall	0.200	0.703	4	29g

8 Blaze Jordan R 0.621

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.179	0.425	0	12g
Mild (60–80°)	0.295	0.766	1	12g
at Busch Stadium	0.162	0.448	0	13g
Overall	0.237	0.621	1	23g

9 Nathan Church L 0.628

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.235	0.641	7	77g
Mild (60–80°)	0.268	0.708	5	63g
at Busch Stadium	0.239	0.604	3	52g
Overall	0.227	0.628	9	103g

Injured List

ATL (11 on IL)

Robert Suarez P Injured 15-Day
Mike Yastrzemski LF Injured 10-Day
Ha-Seong Kim SS Injured 10-Day
Martín Pérez P Injured 15-Day
Joey Wentz P Injured 60-Day
Sean Murphy C Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider P Injured 60-Day
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF Injured 10-Day
AJ Smith-Shawver P Injured 60-Day
Joe Jiménez P Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach P Injured 60-Day

STL (2 on IL)

Max Rajcic P Injured 60-Day
Ramón Urías 3B Injured 60-Day

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Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

ATL Atlanta Braves Confirmed

STL St. Louis Cardinals Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.