Who will win Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Chicago Cubs a 53% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Great American Ball Park

CHC

Chicago Cubs

5 - 3

Final

CIN

Cincinnati Reds

53% Win Probability 47%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

CHC 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.00 · temp ×1.009 · expected total 9.0

78° · wind 5 mph L To R. · 92% humidity · night game · game 2 of series HP Dan Merzel runs ×1.01 K ×1.01

CHC starter Locked

Javier Assad

4.11 ERA · 5.4 K/9

starter 4.02 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 4.48 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.26 runs

pen 4.77 FIP

CIN starter Locked

Nick Lodolo

4.60 ERA · 7.2 K/9

starter 4.50 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 4.98 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.76 runs

pen 5.12 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

CHC

7 games

8.9 avg runs

CIN

Team Data (season)

CHC		CIN
54-42	Record	43-52
5.04	Runs / g	4.16
4.50	Runs allowed / g	4.79
46%	Scored first	41%
41%	Cover -1.5	33%
67%	Cover +1.5	57%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

CHC Chicago Cubs n 10/96/170

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	60%	56%	56%
Cover -1.5	60%	41%	41%
Cover +1.5	70%	67%	68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	40%	38%	51%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	55%	45%
Team over 4.5	60%	53%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	45%	47%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	40%	51%
Extra innings	0%	11%	6%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	48%	55%
Race to 4	50%	49%	48%
Race to 5	60%	45%	36%
Race to 6	40%	35%	31%
Race to 7	30%	31%	24%

CIN Cincinnati Reds n 10/95/164

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	45%	51%
Cover -1.5	30%	33%	37%
Cover +1.5	50%	57%	64%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	50%	43%	40%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	58%	44%
Team over 4.5	30%	38%	45%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	40%	40%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	49%	49%
Extra innings	0%	11%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	50%	41%	49%
Race to 4	50%	40%	41%
Race to 5	20%	33%	36%
Race to 6	20%	27%	29%
Race to 7	20%	18%	20%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

CHC Chicago Cubs Confirmed

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 0.765

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.253	0.718	12	89g
Mild (60–80°)	0.241	0.731	36	226g
at Great American Ball Park	0.172	0.536	2	17g
Overall	0.254	0.765	62	384g

2 Seiya Suzuki R 0.822

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.271	0.897	22	92g
Mild (60–80°)	0.255	0.818	46	214g
at Great American Ball Park	0.379	1.144	3	16g
Overall	0.263	0.822	71	371g

3 Alex Bregman R 0.760

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.229	0.706	15	101g
Mild (60–80°)	0.256	0.756	40	252g
at Great American Ball Park	0.263	0.984	2	5g
Overall	0.260	0.760	53	358g

4 Carson Kelly R 0.724

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.282	0.834	13	72g
Mild (60–80°)	0.239	0.692	18	164g
at Great American Ball Park	0.257	0.790	2	11g
Overall	0.249	0.724	33	280g

5 Michael Busch L 0.805

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.250	0.770	8	89g
Mild (60–80°)	0.222	0.731	30	239g
at Great American Ball Park	0.250	0.848	2	17g
Overall	0.252	0.805	70	410g

6 Nico Hoerner R 0.699

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.300	0.773	7	100g
Mild (60–80°)	0.260	0.672	14	232g
at Great American Ball Park	0.214	0.527	0	15g
Overall	0.276	0.699	19	409g

7 Ian Happ S 0.760

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.228	0.683	11	98g
Mild (60–80°)	0.225	0.718	35	230g
at Great American Ball Park	0.185	0.595	1	17g
Overall	0.235	0.760	67	403g

8 Dansby Swanson R 0.704

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.244	0.719	16	100g
Mild (60–80°)	0.227	0.684	28	234g
at Great American Ball Park	0.219	0.739	3	17g
Overall	0.234	0.704	56	408g

9 Miguel Amaya R 0.677

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.195	0.535	1	45g
Mild (60–80°)	0.252	0.704	9	119g
at Great American Ball Park	0.227	0.591	0	8g
Overall	0.240	0.677	15	197g

CIN Cincinnati Reds Confirmed

1 Elly De La Cruz S 0.797

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.266	0.799	39	292g
Mild (60–80°)	0.261	0.800	41	215g
at Great American Ball Park	0.282	0.853	32	199g
Overall	0.263	0.797	62	400g

2 Sal Stewart R 0.819

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.823	20	89g
Mild (60–80°)	0.261	0.777	10	71g
at Great American Ball Park	0.233	0.761	10	59g
Overall	0.258	0.819	24	115g

3 JJ Bleday L 0.761

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.227	0.746	37	245g
Mild (60–80°)	0.226	0.753	33	192g
at Great American Ball Park	0.287	1.034	12	38g
Overall	0.234	0.761	50	324g

4 Spencer Steer R 0.722

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.236	0.722	39	287g
Mild (60–80°)	0.218	0.673	28	217g
at Great American Ball Park	0.239	0.752	34	202g
Overall	0.235	0.722	55	397g

5 Nathaniel Lowe L 0.733

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.255	0.755	37	280g
Mild (60–80°)	0.246	0.739	31	250g
at Great American Ball Park	0.238	0.876	9	37g
Overall	0.245	0.733	44	366g

6 Eugenio Suárez R 0.772

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.238	0.763	61	274g
Mild (60–80°)	0.227	0.755	67	283g
at Great American Ball Park	0.217	0.763	12	44g
Overall	0.235	0.772	93	396g

7 Jose Trevino R 0.624

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.246	0.647	8	126g
Mild (60–80°)	0.224	0.630	9	112g
at Great American Ball Park	0.245	0.605	3	62g
Overall	0.229	0.624	13	192g

8 Edwin Arroyo S 0.552

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.247	0.591	23g
Mild (60–80°)	0.246	0.557	18g
at Great American Ball Park	0.179	0.411	18g
Overall	0.240	0.552	33g

9 TJ Friedl L 0.674

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.242	0.695	25	228g
Mild (60–80°)	0.260	0.755	22	165g
at Great American Ball Park	0.218	0.623	11	147g
Overall	0.236	0.674	30	298g

Injured List

CHC (14 on IL)

Hoby Milner P Injured 15-Day
Edward Cabrera P Injured 15-Day
Ethan Roberts P Injured 15-Day
Ben Brown P Injured 15-Day
Matt Shaw RF Injured 10-Day
Hunter Harvey P Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller P Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele P Injured 60-Day
Daniel Palencia P Injured 15-Day
Porter Hodge P Injured 60-Day
Jameson Taillon P Injured 15-Day
Riley Martin P Injured 60-Day

CIN (7 on IL)

Dane Myers CF Injured 10-Day
Tony Santillan P Injured 15-Day
Matt McLain 2B Injured 10-Day
Blake Dunn CF Injured 10-Day
Nick Lodolo P Injured 15-Day
Brandon Williamson P Injured 60-Day
Graham Ashcraft P Injured 60-Day

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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

CHC Chicago Cubs Confirmed

CIN Cincinnati Reds Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.