Who will win Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Texas Rangers a 53% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Globe Life Field

HOU

Houston Astros

9 - 3

Final

$TEX logo$

TEX

Texas Rangers

47% Win Probability 53%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

HOU 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

TEX 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.86 · roof closed · expected total 7.2

night game · game 2 of series HP Ramon De Jesus runs ×0.99 K ×1.00

HOU starter Locked

Peter Lambert

3.14 ERA · 8.5 K/9

starter 3.66 R/9 over ~5.6 ip

bullpen 4.61 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.48 runs

pen 4.58 FIP

TEX starter Locked

Kumar Rocker

4.40 ERA · 8.0 K/9

starter 4.43 R/9 over ~4.9 ip

bullpen 4.25 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.76 runs

pen 4.14 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

HOU

9 games

8.4 avg runs

TEX

Team Data (season)

HOU		TEX
47-50	Record	48-47
4.58	Runs / g	4.14
5.05	Runs allowed / g	4.31
48%	Scored first	49%
39%	Cover -1.5	34%
55%	Cover +1.5	61%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

HOU Houston Astros n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	48%	54%
Cover -1.5	50%	39%	37%
Cover +1.5	60%	55%	64%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	40%	36%	41%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	80%	59%	45%
Team over 4.5	50%	41%	39%
Team F5 over 2.5	50%	44%	40%
Run in 1st (RFI)	70%	61%	45%
Extra innings	0%	9%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	38%	43%
Race to 4	40%	36%	40%
Race to 5	40%	27%	35%
Race to 6	40%	23%	28%
Race to 7	10%	22%	20%

TEX Texas Rangers n 10/95/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	51%	50%
Cover -1.5	40%	34%	37%
Cover +1.5	50%	61%	68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	41%	49%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	80%	52%	41%
Team over 4.5	40%	41%	39%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	36%	40%
Run in 1st (RFI)	70%	64%	44%
Extra innings	0%	3%	10%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	40%	46%	46%
Race to 4	50%	38%	43%
Race to 5	40%	34%	31%
Race to 6	40%	26%	26%
Race to 7	40%	19%	19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

HOU Houston Astros Confirmed

1 Jeremy Peña R 0.754

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.277	0.738	29	252g
Mild (60–80°)	0.290	0.776	31	273g
at Globe Life Field	0.221	0.558	2	20g
Overall	0.284	0.754	38	334g

2 Yordan Alvarez L 0.961

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.309	0.982	56	215g
Mild (60–80°)	0.323	1.020	62	238g
at Globe Life Field	0.367	1.479	12	16g
Overall	0.305	0.961	72	292g

3 Isaac Paredes R 0.753

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.240	0.737	40	265g
Mild (60–80°)	0.248	0.771	40	269g
at Globe Life Field	0.130	0.498	2	13g
Overall	0.247	0.753	51	345g

4 Christian Walker R 0.751

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.237	0.746	57	276g
Mild (60–80°)	0.236	0.737	55	299g
at Globe Life Field	0.207	0.718	3	14g
Overall	0.242	0.751	73	379g

5 Jose Altuve R 0.761

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.256	0.724	38	283g
Mild (60–80°)	0.272	0.765	42	309g
at Globe Life Field	0.226	0.582	0	16g
Overall	0.271	0.761	56	383g

6 LaMonte Wade Jr. L 0.674

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.219	0.660	10	163g
Mild (60–80°)	0.233	0.656	5	133g
at Globe Life Field	0.429	1.286	1	2g
Overall	0.225	0.674	12	206g

7 Yainer Diaz R 0.727

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.268	0.730	37	245g
Mild (60–80°)	0.279	0.739	34	273g
at Globe Life Field	0.211	0.588	2	15g
Overall	0.274	0.727	42	336g

8 Taylor Trammell L 0.651

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.213	0.638	6	86g
Mild (60–80°)	0.220	0.658	6	86g
at Globe Life Field	0.263	0.684	0	6g
Overall	0.217	0.651	6	105g

9 Christian Vázquez R 0.577

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.233	0.633	12	157g
Mild (60–80°)	0.212	0.596	13	151g
at Globe Life Field	0.321	0.816	1	9g
Overall	0.212	0.577	15	217g

TEX Texas Rangers Confirmed

1 Joc Pederson L 0.774

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.236	0.773	43	255g
Mild (60–80°)	0.228	0.761	36	239g
at Globe Life Field	0.172	0.648	16	93g
Overall	0.235	0.774	47	315g

2 Wyatt Langford R 0.765

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.259	0.774	36	233g
Mild (60–80°)	0.255	0.779	36	241g
at Globe Life Field	0.253	0.797	22	154g
Overall	0.252	0.765	47	312g

3 Josh Jung R 0.727

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.252	0.680	21	195g
Mild (60–80°)	0.256	0.706	25	197g
at Globe Life Field	0.285	0.766	17	135g
Overall	0.268	0.727	30	263g

4 Brandon Nimmo L 0.731

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.243	0.738	45	305g
Mild (60–80°)	0.238	0.707	36	264g
at Globe Life Field	0.236	0.672	4	47g
Overall	0.246	0.731	58	408g

5 Jake Burger R 0.724

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.241	0.723	45	233g
Mild (60–80°)	0.227	0.667	41	249g
at Globe Life Field	0.220	0.628	11	94g
Overall	0.244	0.724	61	331g

6 Ezequiel Duran R 0.650

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.251	0.666	10	184g
Mild (60–80°)	0.257	0.668	9	202g
at Globe Life Field	0.256	0.676	7	124g
Overall	0.250	0.650	13	268g

7 Evan Carter L 0.650

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.215	0.675	15	145g
Mild (60–80°)	0.205	0.669	15	146g
at Globe Life Field	0.202	0.660	7	81g
Overall	0.208	0.650	17	185g

8 Nicky Lopez L 0.606

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.248	0.616	2	152g
Mild (60–80°)	0.249	0.606	2	125g
at Globe Life Field	0.323	0.760	1	25g
Overall	0.249	0.606	2	184g

9 Elias Díaz R 0.664

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.245	0.679	12	160g
Mild (60–80°)	0.233	0.641	14	177g
at Globe Life Field	0.250	0.659	1	14g
Overall	0.242	0.664	19	240g

Injured List

HOU (7 on IL)

Kai-Wei Teng P Injured 15-Day
Ronel Blanco P Injured 60-Day
Bennett Sousa P Injured 60-Day
Lance McCullers Jr. P Injured 15-Day
Carlos Correa SS Injured 60-Day
Brandon Walter P Injured 60-Day
Hayden Wesneski P Injured 60-Day

TEX (12 on IL)

Jack Leiter P Injured 15-Day
Jakob Junis P Injured 15-Day
Cody Freeman 3B Injured 10-Day
Robert Garcia P Injured 60-Day
Michael Helman CF Injured 60-Day
Chris Martin P Injured 15-Day
Cody Bradford P Injured 60-Day
Corey Seager SS Injured 10-Day
Jalen Beeks P Injured 10-Day
Danny Jansen C Injured 10-Day
Jordan Montgomery P Injured 60-Day
Carter Baumler P Injured 60-Day

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Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

HOU Houston Astros Confirmed

TEX Texas Rangers Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.