Who will win Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 55% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Kansas City Royals

1 - 6

Final

BAL

Baltimore Orioles

45% Win Probability 55%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

BAL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.021 · expected total 10.2

81° · wind 8 mph Out To LF. · 77% humidity · night game · game 2 of series HP Marvin Hudson runs ×0.95 K ×1.00

KC starter Locked

Noah Cameron

4.89 ERA · 8.6 K/9

starter 4.92 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 5.64 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.49 runs

pen 5.19 FIP

BAL starter Locked

Kyle Bradish

3.61 ERA · 8.9 K/9

starter 4.29 R/9 over ~5.5 ip

bullpen 4.66 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.66 runs

pen 3.91 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

6 games

10.3 avg runs

BAL

Team Data (season)

KC		BAL
38-59	Record	46-51
4.24	Runs / g	4.61
5.14	Runs allowed / g	4.80
43%	Scored first	45%
30%	Cover -1.5	40%
54%	Cover +1.5	62%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

KC Kansas City Royals n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	39%	51%
Cover -1.5	30%	30%	36%
Cover +1.5	30%	54%	63%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	20%	34%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	46%	42%
Team over 4.5	30%	38%	33%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	36%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	52%	46%
Extra innings	0%	7%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	20%	37%	43%
Race to 4	20%	32%	35%
Race to 5	20%	24%	26%
Race to 6	10%	19%	25%
Race to 7	10%	12%	19%

BAL Baltimore Orioles n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	70%	47%	46%
Cover -1.5	60%	40%	30%
Cover +1.5	80%	62%	61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	36%	40%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	54%	44%
Team over 4.5	60%	47%	36%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	40%	39%
Run in 1st (RFI)	30%	46%	51%
Extra innings	0%	6%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	80%	41%	46%
Race to 4	40%	37%	38%
Race to 5	50%	38%	31%
Race to 6	40%	31%	20%
Race to 7	20%	22%	14%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

KC Kansas City Royals Confirmed

1 Carter Jensen L 0.762

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.246	0.789	14	83g
Hot (80°+)	0.248	0.778	6	35g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.000	0.077	0	3g
Overall	0.247	0.762	16	109g

2 Bobby Witt Jr. R 0.883

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.316	0.920	61	316g
Hot (80°+)	0.325	0.972	35	148g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.245	0.694	2	11g
Overall	0.306	0.883	68	415g

3 Jac Caglianone L 0.673

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.215	0.677	17	116g
Hot (80°+)	0.199	0.604	9	58g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.333	0.917	1	3g
Overall	0.219	0.673	22	152g

4 Lane Thomas R 0.684

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.210	0.638	15	180g
Hot (80°+)	0.271	0.840	17	103g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.150	0.350	0	6g
Overall	0.225	0.684	28	261g

5 Vinnie Pasquantino L 0.750

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.254	0.751	45	293g
Hot (80°+)	0.268	0.816	26	129g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.243	0.766	2	10g
Overall	0.253	0.750	57	367g

6 Salvador Perez R 0.707

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.242	0.719	56	311g
Hot (80°+)	0.270	0.792	29	141g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.343	0.800	1	9g
Overall	0.243	0.707	69	408g

7 Michael Massey L 0.689

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.255	0.691	24	209g
Hot (80°+)	0.256	0.727	9	83g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.290	0.796	1	8g
Overall	0.256	0.689	24	260g

8 Nick Loftin R 0.634

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.190	0.565	4	130g
Hot (80°+)	0.220	0.622	3	70g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.200	0.473	0	4g
Overall	0.216	0.634	9	182g

9 Isaac Collins S 0.722

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.749	10	161g
Hot (80°+)	0.267	0.822	6	57g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.300	1.100	1	3g
Overall	0.247	0.722	14	233g

BAL Baltimore Orioles Confirmed

1 Gunnar Henderson L 0.799

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.248	0.747	18	115g
Hot (80°+)	0.291	0.881	29	155g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.266	0.814	43	212g
Overall	0.263	0.799	71	411g

2 Adley Rutschman S 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.254	0.747	12	87g
Hot (80°+)	0.229	0.661	6	110g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.226	0.688	18	155g
Overall	0.242	0.708	36	305g

3 Taylor Ward R 0.763

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.275	0.833	13	90g
Hot (80°+)	0.283	0.841	17	104g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.255	0.712	3	58g
Overall	0.241	0.763	67	409g

4 Pete Alonso R 0.824

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.261	0.815	25	124g
Hot (80°+)	0.265	0.866	31	122g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.240	0.801	13	56g
Overall	0.256	0.824	97	434g

5 Samuel Basallo L 0.708

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.238	0.680	3	24g
Hot (80°+)	0.237	0.896	13	33g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.227	0.706	12	62g
Overall	0.225	0.708	20	114g

6 Tyler O'Neill R 0.757

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.230	0.840	22	82g
Hot (80°+)	0.264	0.945	22	72g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.202	0.702	10	62g
Overall	0.221	0.757	46	226g

7 Coby Mayo R 0.635

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.242	0.809	12	63g
Hot (80°+)	0.216	0.647	6	66g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.205	0.651	10	92g
Overall	0.197	0.635	23	176g

8 Jackson Holliday L 0.661

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.244	0.675	4	65g
Hot (80°+)	0.256	0.722	10	109g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.234	0.672	15	126g
Overall	0.227	0.661	27	254g

9 Leody Taveras S 0.632

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.203	0.569	4	69g
Hot (80°+)	0.236	0.690	4	45g
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards	0.259	0.716	2	48g
Overall	0.227	0.632	19	291g

Injured List

KC (10 on IL)

Cole Ragans P Injured 60-Day
James McArthur P Injured 60-Day
Kyle Isbel CF Injured 10-Day
Maikel Garcia 3B Injured 10-Day
Alec Marsh P Injured 60-Day
Carlos Estévez P Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears P Injured 15-Day
Jonathan India 2B Injured 60-Day
Kris Bubic P Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold P Injured 15-Day

BAL (8 on IL)

Keegan Akin P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Helsley P Injured 15-Day
Colin Selby P Injured 60-Day
Zach Eflin P Injured 60-Day
Ryan Mountcastle 1B Injured 60-Day
Jordan Westburg 3B Injured 60-Day
Chris Bassitt P Injured 15-Day
Félix Bautista P Injured 60-Day

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Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

KC Kansas City Royals Confirmed

BAL Baltimore Orioles Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.