Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers prediction — July 11, 2026
← Games
Comerica Park
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
4 - 2
Final
DET
Detroit Tigers
45%
Win Probability
55%
O
The Oracle
Pro
Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
PHI 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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Grok 4.5
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GLM 5.2
Winner
DET 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
PHI 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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Starting Pitchers
park ×0.97 · temp ×1.033 · expected total 7.5
83° · wind 11 mph In From CF. · 52% humidity · night game · game 2 of series
HP Vic Carapazza
runs ×1.03
K ×1.01
PHI starter
Locked
2.62 ERA · 10.2 K/9
starter 3.38 R/9 over ~6.1 ip
bullpen 4.87 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.86 runs
pen 3.83 FIP
DET starter
Locked
2.79 ERA · 9.0 K/9
starter 3.32 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 4.20 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.67 runs
pen 4.06 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
2
PHI
3 games
7.7 avg runs
1
DET
Team Data (season)
| PHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 54-43 | Record | 44-52 |
| 4.37 | Runs / g | 4.24 |
| 4.47 | Runs allowed / g | 3.99 |
| 60% | Scored first | 55% |
| 36% | Cover -1.5 | 36% |
| 62% | Cover +1.5 | 63% |
Form & Market Trends
PHI Philadelphia Phillies
n 10/97/166
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 50% | 56% | 58% |
| Cover -1.5 | 40% | 36% | 43% |
| Cover +1.5 | 50% | 62% | 72% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 40% | 43% | 48% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 47% | 49% |
| Team over 4.5 | 30% | 41% | 44% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 40% | 37% | 41% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 20% | 51% | 48% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 7% | 10% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 40% | 48% | 51% |
| Race to 4 | 40% | 35% | 45% |
| Race to 5 | 20% | 32% | 37% |
| Race to 6 | 10% | 30% | 31% |
| Race to 7 | 0% | 18% | 27% |
DET Detroit Tigers
n 10/96/170
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 70% | 46% | 54% |
| Cover -1.5 | 70% | 36% | 40% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 63% | 62% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 60% | 46% | 46% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 41% | 52% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 42% | 45% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 50% | 44% | 45% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 30% | 44% | 45% |
| Extra innings | 10% | 8% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 70% | 48% | 47% |
| Race to 4 | 60% | 41% | 46% |
| Race to 5 | 50% | 38% | 36% |
| Race to 6 | 50% | 27% | 31% |
| Race to 7 | 10% | 17% | 24% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
PHI Philadelphia Phillies Confirmed
1 Trea Turner R 0.756
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.280 | 0.753 | 33 | 244g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.305 | 0.827 | 20 | 126g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.174 | 0.487 | 0 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.282 | 0.756 | 46 | 364g |
2 Kyle Schwarber L 0.890
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.238 | 0.890 | 87 | 274g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.255 | 0.907 | 43 | 139g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.208 | 0.530 | 0 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.244 | 0.890 | 129 | 413g |
3 Bryce Harper L 0.870
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.282 | 0.941 | 60 | 251g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.261 | 0.851 | 27 | 131g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.360 | 1.167 | 2 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.270 | 0.870 | 78 | 382g |
4 Brandon Marsh L 0.772
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.275 | 0.788 | 33 | 260g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.260 | 0.787 | 21 | 132g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.263 | 0.754 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.270 | 0.772 | 42 | 368g |
5 Alec Bohm R 0.722
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.269 | 0.717 | 20 | 235g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.272 | 0.756 | 17 | 123g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.192 | 0.538 | 1 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.265 | 0.722 | 37 | 363g |
6 Bryson Stott L 0.693
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.247 | 0.690 | 25 | 283g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.253 | 0.713 | 13 | 138g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.350 | 0.859 | 0 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.249 | 0.693 | 31 | 394g |
7 J.T. Realmuto R 0.694
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.267 | 0.751 | 26 | 196g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.252 | 0.734 | 13 | 99g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.429 | 1.143 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.249 | 0.694 | 34 | 309g |
8 Gabriel Rincones Jr. L 0.516
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.143 | 0.476 | 2 | 17g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.188 | 0.532 | 1 | 16g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.179 | 0.516 | 2 | 21g |
9 Derek Hill R 0.674
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.228 | 0.624 | 9 | 116g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.248 | 0.745 | 10 | 55g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.364 | 1.000 | 1 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.238 | 0.674 | 17 | 183g |
DET Detroit Tigers Confirmed
1 Matt Vierling R 0.674
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.245 | 0.702 | 7 | 73g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.229 | 0.643 | 7 | 93g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.238 | 0.688 | 16 | 140g |
| Overall | 0.237 | 0.674 | 22 | 263g |
2 Kevin McGonigle L 0.808
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.248 | 0.664 | 1 | 26g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.270 | 0.825 | 3 | 20g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.268 | 0.790 | 3 | 49g |
| Overall | 0.283 | 0.808 | 8 | 93g |
3 Dillon Dingler R 0.742
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.273 | 0.796 | 9 | 68g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.247 | 0.655 | 5 | 71g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.242 | 0.682 | 15 | 123g |
| Overall | 0.257 | 0.742 | 34 | 248g |
4 Spencer Torkelson R 0.724
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.246 | 0.816 | 17 | 97g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.232 | 0.745 | 18 | 90g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.243 | 0.793 | 34 | 176g |
| Overall | 0.224 | 0.724 | 57 | 357g |
5 Riley Greene L 0.812
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.244 | 0.701 | 9 | 97g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.270 | 0.841 | 24 | 114g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.268 | 0.799 | 31 | 199g |
| Overall | 0.265 | 0.812 | 74 | 404g |
6 Eduardo Valencia R 1.600
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.600 | 2.400 | 2 | 2g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.500 | 1.600 | 2 | 4g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.500 | 1.600 | 2 | 4g |
| Overall | 0.500 | 1.600 | 2 | 4g |
7 Hao-Yu Lee R 0.678
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.243 | 0.574 | 0 | 25g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.259 | 0.607 | 0 | 10g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.224 | 0.539 | 1 | 27g |
| Overall | 0.255 | 0.678 | 4 | 55g |
8 Ben Malgeri R 0.675
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.176 | 0.353 | 0 | 5g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.167 | 0.583 | 0 | 6g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.286 | 0.769 | 0 | 8g |
| Overall | 0.261 | 0.675 | 0 | 11g |
9 Zach McKinstry L 0.676
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.269 | 0.813 | 5 | 75g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.247 | 0.757 | 11 | 111g |
| at Comerica Park | 0.280 | 0.833 | 16 | 175g |
| Overall | 0.231 | 0.676 | 21 | 346g |
Injured List
PHI (4 on IL)
- Johan Rojas CF Injured 60-Day
- Adolis García RF Injured 60-Day
- Tanner Banks P Injured 15-Day
- Lou Trivino III P Injured 15-Day
DET (12 on IL)
- Will Vest P Injured 15-Day
- Justin Verlander P Injured 60-Day
- Burch Smith P Injured 60-Day
- Brant Hurter P Injured 60-Day
- Reese Olson P Injured 60-Day
- Javier Báez SS Injured 60-Day
- Wenceel Pérez RF Injured 60-Day
- Parker Meadows CF Injured 60-Day
- Jackson Jobe P Injured 60-Day
- Bailey Horn P Injured 60-Day
- Gleyber Torres 2B Injured 10-Day
- Trey Sweeney SS Injured 60-Day
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