Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins prediction — July 11, 2026
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loanDepot park
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
4 - 1
Final
MIA
Miami Marlins
43%
Win Probability
57%
O
The Oracle
Pro
Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Grok 4.5
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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GLM 5.2
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
MIA 🔒
Total
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1st inn
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Starting Pitchers
park ×1.02 · roof closed · expected total 8.6
day game · game 2 of series
HP Chad Whitson
runs ×0.99
K ×0.96
CLE starter
Locked
3.90 ERA · 6.9 K/9
starter 4.25 R/9 over ~5.6 ip
bullpen 4.09 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.28 runs
pen 3.86 FIP
MIA starter
Locked
3.78 ERA · 10.0 K/9
starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 4.03 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.28 runs
pen 3.72 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
3
CLE
3 games
5.7 avg runs
0
MIA
Team Data (season)
| CLE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 51-46 | Record | 52-45 |
| 3.97 | Runs / g | 4.53 |
| 3.99 | Runs allowed / g | 4.28 |
| 55% | Scored first | 51% |
| 35% | Cover -1.5 | 39% |
| 69% | Cover +1.5 | 64% |
Form & Market Trends
CLE Cleveland Guardians
n 10/97/165
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 60% | 53% | 54% |
| Cover -1.5 | 30% | 35% | 38% |
| Cover +1.5 | 80% | 69% | 67% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 30% | 42% | 38% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 43% | 41% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 34% | 36% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 40% | 37% | 35% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 30% | 41% | 45% |
| Extra innings | 10% | 7% | 11% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 60% | 48% | 48% |
| Race to 4 | 50% | 37% | 38% |
| Race to 5 | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Race to 6 | 10% | 24% | 24% |
| Race to 7 | 0% | 15% | 16% |
MIA Miami Marlins
n 10/97/162
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 60% | 54% | 49% |
| Cover -1.5 | 40% | 39% | 35% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 64% | 62% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 60% | 47% | 36% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 60% | 54% | 50% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 38% | 44% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 60% | 39% | 37% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 40% | 49% | 51% |
| Extra innings | 10% | 5% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 60% | 46% | 41% |
| Race to 4 | 60% | 48% | 40% |
| Race to 5 | 40% | 31% | 32% |
| Race to 6 | 50% | 28% | 23% |
| Race to 7 | 40% | 25% | 15% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
CLE Cleveland Guardians Confirmed
1 Travis Bazzana L 0.715
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.225 | 0.699 | 5 | 43g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.265 | 0.804 | 6 | 43g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.091 | 0.258 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.238 | 0.715 | 7 | 65g |
2 Brayan Rocchio S 0.659
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.246 | 0.663 | 15 | 259g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.243 | 0.667 | 14 | 213g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.333 | 0.952 | 2 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.239 | 0.659 | 23 | 365g |
3 Chase DeLauter L 0.789
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.232 | 0.723 | 10 | 56g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.262 | 0.757 | 6 | 48g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.250 | 1.107 | 2 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.275 | 0.789 | 11 | 82g |
4 Kyle Manzardo L 0.717
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.230 | 0.722 | 37 | 220g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.232 | 0.713 | 24 | 179g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.250 | 0.607 | 0 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.228 | 0.717 | 43 | 294g |
5 Kahlil Watson L 0.562
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.204 | 0.547 | 1 | 16g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.250 | 0.655 | 1 | 15g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.250 | 0.583 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.221 | 0.562 | 1 | 23g |
6 Gabriel Arias R 0.630
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.210 | 0.584 | 10 | 147g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.223 | 0.609 | 8 | 132g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.429 | 1.071 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.223 | 0.630 | 19 | 216g |
7 Petey Halpin L 0.478
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.222 | 0.560 | 0 | 24g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.224 | 0.550 | 0 | 35g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.286 | 0.661 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.194 | 0.478 | 0 | 39g |
8 Patrick Bailey S 0.602
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.222 | 0.615 | 15 | 243g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.226 | 0.607 | 12 | 233g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.286 | 0.729 | 0 | 7g |
| Overall | 0.221 | 0.602 | 17 | 320g |
9 Steven Kwan L 0.716
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.274 | 0.715 | 17 | 274g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.283 | 0.731 | 12 | 216g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.412 | 1.171 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.271 | 0.716 | 26 | 380g |
MIA Miami Marlins Confirmed
1 Liam Hicks L 0.748
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.279 | 0.777 | 18 | 157g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.261 | 0.756 | 15 | 154g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.254 | 0.724 | 9 | 105g |
| Overall | 0.269 | 0.748 | 19 | 204g |
2 Otto Lopez R 0.734
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.293 | 0.777 | 22 | 246g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.278 | 0.732 | 23 | 270g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.275 | 0.726 | 14 | 178g |
| Overall | 0.279 | 0.734 | 30 | 355g |
3 Kyle Stowers L 0.794
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.266 | 0.841 | 37 | 191g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.232 | 0.743 | 28 | 193g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.231 | 0.744 | 19 | 119g |
| Overall | 0.255 | 0.794 | 40 | 258g |
4 Xavier Edwards S 0.760
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.307 | 0.788 | 6 | 219g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.287 | 0.718 | 6 | 231g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.292 | 0.729 | 6 | 158g |
| Overall | 0.299 | 0.760 | 10 | 306g |
5 Heriberto Hernández R 0.789
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.266 | 0.796 | 14 | 98g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.256 | 0.796 | 17 | 114g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.242 | 0.736 | 8 | 76g |
| Overall | 0.253 | 0.789 | 23 | 154g |
6 Griffin Conine L 0.785
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.273 | 0.783 | 6 | 56g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.286 | 0.844 | 8 | 55g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.301 | 0.885 | 6 | 44g |
| Overall | 0.262 | 0.785 | 10 | 84g |
7 Jakob Marsee L 0.692
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.230 | 0.680 | 6 | 108g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.249 | 0.709 | 5 | 118g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.237 | 0.700 | 4 | 77g |
| Overall | 0.234 | 0.692 | 10 | 149g |
8 Joe Mack L 0.719
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.229 | 0.667 | 5 | 39g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.244 | 0.661 | 3 | 41g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.241 | 0.627 | 1 | 27g |
| Overall | 0.245 | 0.719 | 7 | 53g |
9 Javier Sanoja R 0.687
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.255 | 0.682 | 5 | 139g |
| Mild (60–80°) | 0.255 | 0.696 | 8 | 161g |
| at loanDepot park | 0.269 | 0.729 | 6 | 106g |
| Overall | 0.253 | 0.687 | 9 | 212g |
Injured List
CLE (3 on IL)
- Tim Herrin P Injured 15-Day
- José Ramírez 3B Injured 10-Day
- Angel Martínez LF Injured 10-Day
MIA (9 on IL)
- John King P Injured 15-Day
- Anthony Bender P Injured 15-Day
- Owen Caissie RF Injured 10-Day
- Ronny Henriquez P Injured 60-Day
- Andrew Nardi P Injured 60-Day
- Robby Snelling P Injured 60-Day
- Adam Mazur P Injured 60-Day
- Josh Ekness P Injured 60-Day
- William Kempner P Injured 15-Day
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