Who will win Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Seattle Mariners a 54% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Tropicana Field

SEA

Seattle Mariners

1 - 6

Final

Tampa Bay Rays

54% Win Probability 46%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

SEA 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GLM 5.2

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Grok 4.5

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

SEA 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

SEA 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

—

Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

TB 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

SEA 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

🔒

🔒 Upgrade for each AI's confidence, total & first-inning call with Pro

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.92 · dome · expected total 7.4

day game · game 2 of series HP Ron Kulpa runs ×0.97 K ×1.10

SEA starter Locked

Logan Gilbert

3.32 ERA · 9.4 K/9

starter 3.54 R/9 over ~5.8 ip

bullpen 3.86 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.37 runs

pen 3.66 FIP

TB starter Locked

Griffin Jax

3.47 ERA · 9.1 K/9

starter 4.07 R/9 over ~4.5 ip

bullpen 4.68 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.04 runs

pen 4.50 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

SEA

3 games

8.7 avg runs

Team Data (season)

SEA		TB
48-49	Record	56-38
4.04	Runs / g	4.52
3.88	Runs allowed / g	4.18
60%	Scored first	51%
36%	Cover -1.5	48%
66%	Cover +1.5	69%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

SEA Seattle Mariners n 10/97/174

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	49%	55%
Cover -1.5	30%	36%	36%
Cover +1.5	50%	66%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	40%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	42%	50%
Team over 4.5	30%	39%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	37%	41%
Run in 1st (RFI)	0%	48%	48%
Extra innings	10%	10%	13%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	46%	50%
Race to 4	30%	35%	45%
Race to 5	30%	32%	33%
Race to 6	20%	23%	28%
Race to 7	20%	16%	21%

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/94/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	60%	48%
Cover -1.5	50%	48%	34%
Cover +1.5	50%	69%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	50%	49%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	40%	48%
Team over 4.5	40%	48%	38%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	44%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	20%	49%	54%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	50%	57%	51%
Race to 4	40%	52%	42%
Race to 5	40%	44%	32%
Race to 6	40%	30%	27%
Race to 7	20%	20%	22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SEA Seattle Mariners Confirmed

1 J.P. Crawford L 0.676

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.234	0.683	24	257g
Mild (60–80°)	0.222	0.637	18	236g
at Tropicana Field	0.429	1.205	0	6g
Overall	0.233	0.676	32	353g

2 Randy Arozarena R 0.733

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.232	0.703	38	299g
Mild (60–80°)	0.241	0.729	38	284g
at Tropicana Field	0.203	0.686	10	55g
Overall	0.240	0.733	59	415g

3 Dominic Canzone L 0.773

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.807	33	196g
Mild (60–80°)	0.246	0.767	22	155g
at Tropicana Field	0.118	0.284	0	5g
Overall	0.254	0.773	34	243g

4 Cal Raleigh S 0.810

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.225	0.822	81	284g
Mild (60–80°)	0.234	0.826	71	253g
at Tropicana Field	0.278	1.091	2	6g
Overall	0.225	0.810	108	389g

5 Josh Naylor L 0.762

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.770	51	305g
Mild (60–80°)	0.270	0.768	40	266g
at Tropicana Field	0.238	0.646	0	6g
Overall	0.266	0.762	62	411g

6 Luke Raley L 0.704

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.237	0.735	38	230g
Mild (60–80°)	0.239	0.714	24	187g
at Tropicana Field	0.000	0.000	0	4g
Overall	0.229	0.704	40	296g

7 Cole Young L 0.660

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.240	0.677	13	133g
Mild (60–80°)	0.213	0.617	10	117g
at Tropicana Field	0.273	0.909	1	3g
Overall	0.236	0.660	15	174g

8 Victor Robles R 0.675

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.258	0.694	5	115g
Mild (60–80°)	0.275	0.708	5	118g
at Tropicana Field	0.143	0.429	0	4g
Overall	0.264	0.675	5	174g

9 Colt Emerson L 0.663

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.196	0.611	4	34g
Mild (60–80°)	0.205	0.666	5	36g
at Tropicana Field	0.000	0.000	0	1g
Overall	0.201	0.663	7	45g

TB Tampa Bay Rays Confirmed

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.818

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.289	0.785	34	278g
Mild (60–80°)	0.308	0.837	35	252g
at Tropicana Field	0.323	0.880	19	126g
Overall	0.298	0.818	52	385g

2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.846

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.294	0.858	30	190g
Mild (60–80°)	0.301	0.894	28	158g
at Tropicana Field	0.298	0.908	13	69g
Overall	0.296	0.846	34	243g

3 Junior Caminero R 0.854

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.266	0.864	61	213g
Mild (60–80°)	0.257	0.853	50	178g
at Tropicana Field	0.300	0.988	19	67g
Overall	0.266	0.854	79	291g

4 Cedric Mullins L 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.215	0.671	40	277g
Mild (60–80°)	0.202	0.625	27	213g
at Tropicana Field	0.206	0.674	8	49g
Overall	0.220	0.679	47	364g

5 Jonny DeLuca R 0.657

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.246	0.673	8	133g
Mild (60–80°)	0.233	0.644	9	144g
at Tropicana Field	0.213	0.597	4	85g
Overall	0.240	0.657	11	184g

6 Chandler Simpson L 0.662

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.307	0.710	144g
Mild (60–80°)	0.281	0.663	111g
at Tropicana Field	0.268	0.638	49g
Overall	0.286	0.662	198g

7 Ben Williamson R 0.625

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.654	3	104g
Mild (60–80°)	0.244	0.613	2	112g
at Tropicana Field	0.252	0.656	1	34g
Overall	0.253	0.625	3	152g

8 Richie Palacios L 0.675

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.243	0.694	9	152g
Mild (60–80°)	0.227	0.652	6	139g
at Tropicana Field	0.210	0.615	2	83g
Overall	0.238	0.675	9	179g

9 Nick Fortes R 0.601

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.231	0.610	10	176g
Mild (60–80°)	0.223	0.580	8	202g
at Tropicana Field	0.254	0.601	0	40g
Overall	0.236	0.601	11	278g

Injured List

SEA (8 on IL)

Rob Refsnyder DH Injured 10-Day
Julio Rodríguez CF Injured 7-Day
Brendan Donovan 3B Injured 10-Day
Cooper Criswell P Injured 60-Day
Will Wilson 3B Injured 60-Day
Logan Evans P Injured 60-Day
Matt Brash P Injured 15-Day
Carlos Vargas P Injured 60-Day

TB (9 on IL)

Steven Matz P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot P Injured 60-Day
Edwin Uceta P Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez P Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley P Injured 60-Day
Steven Wilson P Injured 60-Day
Jake Fraley RF Injured 10-Day
Gavin Lux LF Injured 60-Day
Jesse Scholtens P Injured 15-Day

Predicted Sports Pro

See the whole board, not just the score.

A membership unlocks every model's confidence, the Oracle's full read, and the tools below on every game and every sport.

By the conditions

Run this exact matchup through our Explore engine: each lineup vs the opposing hand, in tonight's weather, at this park.

Edge picks & alerts

The hand-curated Edge Board, plus an email the moment a qualifying pick lands on the slate.

Every AI's confidence

The full leaderboard field: each model's win probability, projected total and first-inning call, not just the pick.

Every sport

MLB, UFC and soccer today, with NFL and college football next. One membership covers them all.

Start 7-day free trial or sign up free

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

SEA Seattle Mariners Confirmed

TB Tampa Bay Rays Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.