Who will win Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Boston Red Sox a 55% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games Citi Field

BOS

Boston Red Sox

4 - 0

Final

NYM

New York Mets

55% Win Probability 45%

O The Oracle Pro Graded in public

The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.

Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.

What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

BOS 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.027 · expected total 9.2

82° · wind 7 mph In From RF. · 55% humidity · day game · game 2 of series HP Brock Ballou runs ×0.97 K ×0.99

BOS starter Locked

Eduardo Rivera

0.00 ERA · 7.7 K/9

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.1 ip

bullpen 3.56 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.21 runs

pen 3.77 FIP

NYM starter Locked

Freddy Peralta

4.66 ERA · 9.0 K/9

starter 4.97 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 4.34 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.97 runs

pen 3.96 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

BOS

3 games

5.7 avg runs

NYM

Team Data (season)

BOS		NYM
46-48	Record	40-57
4.10	Runs / g	4.10
3.81	Runs allowed / g	4.77
49%	Scored first	44%
40%	Cover -1.5	32%
62%	Cover +1.5	59%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/94/165

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	90%	49%	55%
Cover -1.5	70%	40%	41%
Cover +1.5	90%	62%	72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	80%	40%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	41%	46%
Team over 4.5	60%	44%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	50%	35%	41%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	54%	53%
Extra innings	10%	6%	12%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	46%	43%
Race to 4	70%	40%	42%
Race to 5	60%	37%	35%
Race to 6	40%	24%	28%
Race to 7	30%	16%	22%

NYM New York Mets n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	41%	51%
Cover -1.5	20%	32%	37%
Cover +1.5	50%	59%	67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	40%	35%	48%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	44%	52%
Team over 4.5	50%	35%	44%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	33%	43%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	51%	46%
Extra innings	20%	15%	8%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	38%	48%
Race to 4	50%	38%	43%
Race to 5	50%	31%	39%
Race to 6	50%	26%	28%
Race to 7	40%	22%	22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

BOS Boston Red Sox Confirmed

1 Anthony Seigler S 0.633

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.219	0.617	2	42g
Hot (80°+)	0.237	0.670	1	24g
at Citi Field	0.150	0.450	1	5g
Overall	0.228	0.633	2	56g

2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.691

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.253	0.676	25	286g
Hot (80°+)	0.282	0.756	11	105g
at Citi Field	0.200	0.588	0	5g
Overall	0.254	0.691	39	401g

3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.774

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.252	0.793	46	264g
Hot (80°+)	0.240	0.751	12	93g
at Citi Field	0.250	0.833	1	6g
Overall	0.252	0.774	48	342g

4 Caleb Durbin R 0.687

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.250	0.696	13	166g
Hot (80°+)	0.224	0.624	4	53g
at Citi Field	0.308	0.808	0	6g
Overall	0.246	0.687	20	232g

5 Masataka Yoshida L 0.728

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.275	0.719	14	187g
Hot (80°+)	0.292	0.785	6	63g
at Citi Field	0.263	0.890	1	6g
Overall	0.276	0.728	17	227g

6 Andruw Monasterio R 0.673

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.222	0.603	3	117g
Hot (80°+)	0.272	0.794	4	57g
at Citi Field	0.444	2.028	2	5g
Overall	0.235	0.673	10	189g

7 Jarren Duran L 0.754

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.254	0.765	41	300g
Hot (80°+)	0.287	0.884	20	104g
at Citi Field	0.217	0.541	0	6g
Overall	0.254	0.754	50	407g

8 Carlos Narváez R 0.659

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.213	0.623	12	128g
Hot (80°+)	0.270	0.725	4	34g
at Citi Field	0.000	0.250	0	1g
Overall	0.223	0.659	17	180g

9 Tsung-Che Cheng L 0.562

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.258	0.614	11g
Hot (80°+)	0.500	1.100	4g
at Citi Field	0.400	0.900	3g
Overall	0.235	0.562	13g

NYM New York Mets Confirmed

1 A.J. Ewing L 0.787

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.245	0.782	3	17g
Hot (80°+)	0.303	0.893	4	23g
at Citi Field	0.303	0.923	6	31g
Overall	0.276	0.787	7	57g

2 Juan Soto L 0.963

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.259	0.880	28	113g
Hot (80°+)	0.294	0.994	33	112g
at Citi Field	0.282	0.964	33	120g
Overall	0.280	0.963	109	409g

3 Francisco Lindor S 0.803

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.256	0.769	20	102g
Hot (80°+)	0.252	0.750	18	103g
at Citi Field	0.283	0.848	35	178g
Overall	0.265	0.803	71	365g

4 Carson Benge L 0.722

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.274	0.703	2	24g
Hot (80°+)	0.327	0.934	6	26g
at Citi Field	0.277	0.693	3	48g
Overall	0.263	0.722	11	94g

5 Jorge Polanco S 0.720

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.239	0.713	11	70g
Hot (80°+)	0.275	0.858	11	53g
at Citi Field	0.146	0.470	1	13g
Overall	0.235	0.720	46	287g

6 Eric Wagaman R 0.672

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.263	0.762	9	60g
Hot (80°+)	0.248	0.663	2	37g
at Citi Field	0.205	0.654	2	18g
Overall	0.246	0.672	13	178g

7 Francisco Alvarez R 0.726

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.241	0.736	8	71g
Hot (80°+)	0.272	0.806	10	63g
at Citi Field	0.235	0.736	19	121g
Overall	0.248	0.726	31	253g

8 Brett Baty L 0.677

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.226	0.625	4	70g
Hot (80°+)	0.237	0.674	7	69g
at Citi Field	0.257	0.745	17	149g
Overall	0.238	0.677	26	273g

9 Zack Short R 0.506

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.151	0.481	1	30g
Hot (80°+)	0.140	0.415	0	25g
at Citi Field	0.059	0.297	0	12g
Overall	0.159	0.506	2	93g

Injured List

BOS (11 on IL)

Connelly Early P Injured 15-Day
Ranger Suarez P Injured 15-Day
Marcelo Mayer 2B Injured 10-Day
Kutter Crawford P Injured 60-Day
Tanner Houck P Injured 60-Day
Roman Anthony LF Injured 60-Day
Trevor Story SS Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas 1B Injured 60-Day
Garrett Crochet P Injured 60-Day
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B Injured 10-Day
Johan Oviedo P Injured 60-Day

NYM (9 on IL)

Mark Vientos 1B Injured 10-Day
Austin Warren P Injured 15-Day
Marcus Semien 2B Injured 10-Day
Tylor Megill P Injured 60-Day
Dedniel Núñez P Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett P Injured 60-Day
Justin Hagenman P Injured 60-Day
Luis Robert Jr. CF Injured 60-Day
Clay Holmes P Injured 60-Day

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Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

BOS Boston Red Sox Confirmed

NYM New York Mets Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.