Who will win Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 55% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games PNC Park

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers

2 - 3

Final

PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

55% Win Probability 45%

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What the AIs predict

The AI Index →

Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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DeepSeek V4 Pro

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×1.00 · temp ×1.030 · expected total 9.2

82° · wind 5 mph R To L. · 71% humidity · day game · game 2 of series · doubleheader G2 HP Malachi Moore runs ×1.09 K ×0.99

MIL starter Locked

Shane Drohan

3.09 ERA · 8.6 K/9

starter 4.24 R/9 over ~5.0 ip

bullpen 3.75 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.12 runs

pen 3.72 FIP

PIT starter Locked

Bubba Chandler

4.77 ERA · 8.1 K/9

starter 5.02 R/9 over ~5.0 ip

bullpen 4.86 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.08 runs

pen 4.44 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

MIL

6 games

9.5 avg runs

PIT

Team Data (season)

MIL		PIT
59-37	Record	50-47
5.09	Runs / g	5.32
3.78	Runs allowed / g	4.87
53%	Scored first	57%
46%	Cover -1.5	37%
76%	Cover +1.5	62%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

MIL Milwaukee Brewers n 10/96/171

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	61%	58%
Cover -1.5	20%	46%	42%
Cover +1.5	80%	76%	71%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	49%	48%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	43%	46%
Team over 4.5	40%	51%	47%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	50%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	51%	46%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	50%	57%
Race to 4	50%	52%	47%
Race to 5	30%	42%	41%
Race to 6	30%	33%	32%
Race to 7	20%	22%	26%

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	70%	52%	44%
Cover -1.5	50%	37%	28%
Cover +1.5	70%	62%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	46%	36%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	58%	38%
Team over 4.5	80%	54%	28%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	47%	35%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	52%	44%
Extra innings	0%	9%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	52%	43%
Race to 4	50%	43%	32%
Race to 5	50%	37%	23%
Race to 6	50%	37%	16%
Race to 7	50%	30%	14%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIL Milwaukee Brewers Confirmed

1 Christian Yelich L 0.790

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.265	0.771	34	213g
Hot (80°+)	0.303	0.864	11	71g
at PNC Park	0.357	1.026	2	7g
Overall	0.269	0.790	46	294g

2 Jackson Chourio R 0.798

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.273	0.803	45	244g
Hot (80°+)	0.312	0.923	19	81g
at PNC Park	0.236	0.603	1	16g
Overall	0.276	0.798	59	353g

3 Brice Turang L 0.750

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.279	0.785	30	296g
Hot (80°+)	0.234	0.681	12	96g
at PNC Park	0.194	0.549	1	17g
Overall	0.268	0.750	40	414g

4 Jake Bauers L 0.766

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.233	0.759	33	230g
Hot (80°+)	0.204	0.755	9	67g
at PNC Park	0.283	0.887	3	15g
Overall	0.235	0.766	39	296g

5 Gary Sánchez R 0.726

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.212	0.680	10	96g
Hot (80°+)	0.245	0.757	5	41g
at PNC Park	0.312	1.138	2	7g
Overall	0.223	0.726	24	174g

6 Garrett Mitchell L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.261	0.819	16	127g
Hot (80°+)	0.347	1.013	6	47g
at PNC Park	0.176	0.557	0	5g
Overall	0.258	0.789	17	182g

7 Luis Lara S 0.802

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.286	0.802	5g
Hot (80°+)	0.273	0.701	4g
at PNC Park	0.333	1.056	3g
Overall	0.286	0.802	5g

8 Cooper Pratt R 0.685

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.300	0.807	16g
Hot (80°+)	0.286	0.746	11g
at PNC Park	0.250	0.625	2g
Overall	0.257	0.685	24g

9 Joey Ortiz R 0.633

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.234	0.636	12	264g
Hot (80°+)	0.244	0.664	7	89g
at PNC Park	0.236	0.639	1	17g
Overall	0.228	0.633	21	386g

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed

1 Nick Gonzales R 0.704

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.265	0.703	5	77g
Hot (80°+)	0.253	0.651	5	123g
at PNC Park	0.261	0.643	2	144g
Overall	0.278	0.704	16	281g

2 Brandon Lowe L 0.788

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.242	0.763	14	72g
Hot (80°+)	0.254	0.806	32	127g
at PNC Park	0.227	0.721	10	52g
Overall	0.250	0.788	73	331g

3 Bryan Reynolds S 0.777

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.271	0.780	15	102g
Hot (80°+)	0.314	0.913	28	143g
at PNC Park	0.290	0.864	29	207g
Overall	0.266	0.777	54	407g

4 Esmerlyn Valdez R 1.088

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.343	1.080	3	10g
Hot (80°+)	0.281	0.903	3	16g
at PNC Park	0.327	1.278	8	15g
Overall	0.309	1.088	10	28g

5 Ryan O'Hearn L 0.790

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.244	0.740	7	78g
Hot (80°+)	0.269	0.795	17	135g
at PNC Park	0.311	0.968	13	45g
Overall	0.276	0.790	48	373g

6 Marcell Ozuna R 0.809

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.280	0.836	17	107g
Hot (80°+)	0.279	0.878	31	138g
at PNC Park	0.223	0.683	6	37g
Overall	0.260	0.809	68	370g

7 Rafael Flores Jr. R 0.899

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.364	1.280	1	4g
Hot (80°+)	0.214	0.598	0	6g
at PNC Park	0.400	1.300	1	6g
Overall	0.280	0.899	1	11g

8 Jared Triolo R 0.625

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.257	0.711	5	89g
Hot (80°+)	0.242	0.688	8	102g
at PNC Park	0.233	0.639	8	145g
Overall	0.223	0.625	17	295g

9 Billy Cook R 0.556

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs LHP	0.225	0.500	0	20g
Hot (80°+)	0.200	0.575	2	29g
at PNC Park	0.265	0.559	0	36g
Overall	0.211	0.556	3	74g

Injured List

MIL (11 on IL)

Kyle Harrison P Injured 15-Day
Joel Kuhnel P Injured 15-Day
David Hamilton 3B Injured 10-Day
Quinn Priester P Injured 60-Day
Angel Zerpa P Injured 60-Day
Carlos Rodriguez P Injured 15-Day
Rob Zastryzny P Injured 15-Day
DL Hall P Injured 15-Day
Brandon Lockridge LF Injured 60-Day
Brandon Woodruff P Injured 60-Day
Brian Fitzpatrick P Injured 60-Day

PIT (7 on IL)

Spencer Horwitz 1B Injured 10-Day
Endy Rodríguez C Injured 10-Day
Evan Sisk P Injured 15-Day
Oneil Cruz CF Injured 10-Day
Chris Devenski P Injured 60-Day
Konnor Griffin SS Injured 60-Day
Wilber Dotel P Injured 15-Day

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

MIL Milwaukee Brewers Confirmed

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.