New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals prediction — July 11, 2026
← Games
Nationals Park
NYY
New York Yankees
4 - 2
Final
WSH
Washington Nationals
60%
Win Probability
40%
O
The Oracle
Pro
Graded in public
The Oracle has locked its pick for this game.
Its winner, run total and first-inning call, plus the full reasoning, are ready to read.
What the AIs predict
The AI Index →
Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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GLM 5.2
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
🔒
GPT-5.6 Sol Pro
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
—
Grok 4.5
Winner
NYY 🔒
Total
🔒
1st inn
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Starting Pitchers
park ×1.10 · temp ×1.051 · expected total 9.4
86° · wind 3 mph In From LF. · 49% humidity · day game · game 2 of series
HP Charlie Ramos
runs ×0.96
K ×1.00
NYY starter
Locked
2.05 ERA · 10.4 K/9
starter 3.10 R/9 over ~5.8 ip
bullpen 3.35 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.69 runs
pen 3.69 FIP
WSH starter
Locked
2.70 ERA · 6.1 K/9
starter 3.82 R/9 over ~3.0 ip
bullpen 5.45 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.68 runs
pen 4.95 FIP
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
3
NYY
3 games
7.3 avg runs
0
WSH
Team Data (season)
| NYY | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 54-42 | Record | 48-49 |
| 4.81 | Runs / g | 5.32 |
| 3.86 | Runs allowed / g | 5.25 |
| 54% | Scored first | 58% |
| 47% | Cover -1.5 | 36% |
| 70% | Cover +1.5 | 62% |
Form & Market Trends
NYY New York Yankees
n 10/96/169
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 60% | 56% | 57% |
| Cover -1.5 | 60% | 47% | 43% |
| Cover +1.5 | 60% | 70% | 70% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 43% | 56% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 30% | 44% | 51% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 43% | 50% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 50% | 39% | 49% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 70% | 55% | 56% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 6% | 8% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 50% | 52% | 56% |
| Race to 4 | 60% | 51% | 50% |
| Race to 5 | 50% | 39% | 41% |
| Race to 6 | 10% | 29% | 33% |
| Race to 7 | 10% | 26% | 28% |
WSH Washington Nationals
n 10/97/162
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 40% | 49% | 41% |
| Cover -1.5 | 30% | 36% | 26% |
| Cover +1.5 | 40% | 62% | 52% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 50% | 54% | 35% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 60% | 66% | 56% |
| Team over 4.5 | 50% | 53% | 40% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 50% | 48% | 35% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 80% | 54% | 52% |
| Extra innings | 0% | 10% | 5% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 50% | 56% | 34% |
| Race to 4 | 30% | 48% | 30% |
| Race to 5 | 30% | 40% | 27% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 32% | 21% |
| Race to 7 | 40% | 29% | 17% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Confirmed Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
NYY New York Yankees Confirmed
1 Amed Rosario R 0.711
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.282 | 0.759 | 12 | 103g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.267 | 0.702 | 7 | 68g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.284 | 0.778 | 2 | 26g |
| Overall | 0.270 | 0.711 | 18 | 225g |
2 Ben Rice L 0.841
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.220 | 0.717 | 11 | 76g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.238 | 0.837 | 24 | 100g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.400 | 1.438 | 1 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.249 | 0.841 | 63 | 285g |
3 Trent Grisham L 0.757
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.286 | 0.939 | 14 | 71g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.249 | 0.793 | 18 | 104g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.273 | 0.930 | 1 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.224 | 0.757 | 53 | 302g |
4 Paul Goldschmidt R 0.736
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.284 | 0.813 | 20 | 113g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.250 | 0.697 | 18 | 148g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.233 | 0.748 | 2 | 7g |
| Overall | 0.260 | 0.736 | 47 | 374g |
5 Cody Bellinger L 0.780
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.308 | 0.835 | 12 | 100g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.272 | 0.829 | 24 | 112g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.250 | 0.766 | 1 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.264 | 0.780 | 59 | 383g |
6 Jasson Domínguez S 0.703
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.206 | 0.555 | 2 | 42g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.268 | 0.747 | 7 | 52g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.250 | 0.750 | 1 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.246 | 0.703 | 17 | 181g |
7 Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 0.749
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.241 | 0.722 | 17 | 108g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.271 | 0.869 | 24 | 100g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.344 | 1.051 | 3 | 9g |
| Overall | 0.240 | 0.749 | 71 | 389g |
8 Anthony Volpe R 0.663
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.267 | 0.749 | 7 | 103g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.216 | 0.637 | 13 | 122g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.444 | 0.974 | 0 | 6g |
| Overall | 0.232 | 0.663 | 34 | 379g |
9 Ali Sánchez R 0.460
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.224 | 0.526 | 0 | 27g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.230 | 0.556 | 0 | 23g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.194 | 0.460 | 0 | 61g |
WSH Washington Nationals Confirmed
1 James Wood L 0.859
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.267 | 0.907 | 52 | 232g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.267 | 0.856 | 25 | 125g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.256 | 0.858 | 40 | 176g |
| Overall | 0.265 | 0.859 | 68 | 333g |
2 Luis García Jr. L 0.766
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.276 | 0.780 | 48 | 282g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.277 | 0.785 | 23 | 134g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.287 | 0.798 | 29 | 192g |
| Overall | 0.271 | 0.766 | 54 | 369g |
3 Curtis Mead R 0.690
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.237 | 0.684 | 13 | 130g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.260 | 0.789 | 8 | 64g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.261 | 0.897 | 11 | 46g |
| Overall | 0.240 | 0.690 | 21 | 208g |
4 CJ Abrams L 0.760
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.267 | 0.798 | 47 | 268g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.255 | 0.731 | 19 | 141g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.235 | 0.659 | 21 | 188g |
| Overall | 0.257 | 0.760 | 59 | 375g |
5 Daylen Lile L 0.761
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.262 | 0.754 | 15 | 135g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.244 | 0.670 | 6 | 60g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.238 | 0.706 | 11 | 95g |
| Overall | 0.271 | 0.761 | 19 | 186g |
6 Dylan Crews R 0.617
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.206 | 0.625 | 14 | 112g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.205 | 0.580 | 4 | 48g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.225 | 0.645 | 10 | 90g |
| Overall | 0.211 | 0.617 | 19 | 163g |
7 Jorbit Vivas L 0.601
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.225 | 0.625 | 3 | 79g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.179 | 0.520 | 1 | 28g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.200 | 0.619 | 2 | 39g |
| Overall | 0.218 | 0.601 | 4 | 100g |
8 Drew Millas S 0.607
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.245 | 0.664 | 3 | 69g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.233 | 0.657 | 1 | 31g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.213 | 0.622 | 2 | 39g |
| Overall | 0.225 | 0.607 | 3 | 88g |
9 Nasim Nuñez S 0.636
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 0.234 | 0.599 | 2 | 119g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.270 | 0.721 | 2 | 48g |
| at Nationals Park | 0.239 | 0.624 | 2 | 93g |
| Overall | 0.240 | 0.636 | 5 | 179g |
Injured List
NYY (5 on IL)
- Carlos Rodón P Injured 15-Day
- Max Fried P Injured 15-Day
- Clarke Schmidt P Injured 60-Day
- Giancarlo Stanton DH Injured 10-Day
- Aaron Judge RF Injured 10-Day
WSH (9 on IL)
- Richard Lovelady P Injured 15-Day
- Brad Lord P Injured 15-Day
- Mitchell Parker P Injured 60-Day
- Trevor Williams P Injured 60-Day
- Josiah Gray P Injured 60-Day
- DJ Herz P Injured 60-Day
- Jake Irvin P Injured 60-Day
- Max Kranick P Injured 60-Day
- Ken Waldichuk P Injured 60-Day
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