Who will win Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

Predicted Sports' model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 55% win probability for July 11, 2026. Every pick is graded in public — the full track record is at predictedsports.com/accuracy.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction — Jul 11, 2026

Games Stats Teams Players EdgePro Answers ExplorePro

← Games PNC Park

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers

6 - 7

Final

PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

45% Win Probability 55%

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What the AIs predict

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Claude Sonnet 5

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

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1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Luna Pro

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Claude Opus 4.8

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Grok 4.5

Winner

MIL 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GLM 5.2

Winner

PIT 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.5

Winner

PIT 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Gemini 3.5 Flash

Winner

PIT 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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GPT-5.6 Sol Pro

Winner

PIT 🔒

Total

🔒

1st inn

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Starting Pitchers

park ×0.99 · temp ×1.021 · expected total 8.6

73° · wind 1 mph Out To CF. · 83% humidity · day game · doubleheader G1 HP Lance Barrett runs ×1.06 K ×0.98

MIL starter Locked

Brandon Sproat

5.16 ERA · 9.5 K/9

starter 4.73 R/9 over ~4.9 ip

bullpen 3.70 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.32 runs

pen 3.72 FIP

PIT starter Locked

Braxton Ashcraft

3.49 ERA · 10.2 K/9

starter 3.80 R/9 over ~5.8 ip

bullpen 4.89 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.25 runs

pen 4.44 FIP

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

Head to Head 2026 season

MIL

6 games

9.5 avg runs

PIT

Team Data (season)

MIL		PIT
59-37	Record	50-47
5.09	Runs / g	5.32
3.78	Runs allowed / g	4.87
53%	Scored first	57%
46%	Cover -1.5	37%
76%	Cover +1.5	62%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

MIL Milwaukee Brewers n 10/96/171

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	61%	58%
Cover -1.5	20%	46%	42%
Cover +1.5	80%	76%	71%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	49%	48%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	43%	46%
Team over 4.5	40%	51%	47%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	50%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	51%	46%
Extra innings	0%	10%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	50%	57%
Race to 4	50%	52%	47%
Race to 5	30%	42%	41%
Race to 6	30%	33%	32%
Race to 7	20%	22%	26%

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates n 10/97/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	70%	52%	44%
Cover -1.5	50%	37%	28%
Cover +1.5	70%	62%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	46%	36%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	60%	58%	38%
Team over 4.5	80%	54%	28%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	47%	35%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	52%	44%
Extra innings	0%	9%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	70%	52%	43%
Race to 4	50%	43%	32%
Race to 5	50%	37%	23%
Race to 6	50%	37%	16%
Race to 7	50%	30%	14%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Confirmed Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIL Milwaukee Brewers Confirmed

1 Christian Yelich L 0.790

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.265	0.771	34	213g
Mild (60–80°)	0.256	0.753	30	202g
at PNC Park	0.357	1.026	2	7g
Overall	0.269	0.790	46	294g

2 Garrett Mitchell L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.261	0.819	16	127g
Mild (60–80°)	0.228	0.711	10	122g
at PNC Park	0.176	0.557	0	5g
Overall	0.258	0.789	17	182g

3 Brice Turang L 0.750

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.279	0.785	30	296g
Mild (60–80°)	0.280	0.775	27	290g
at PNC Park	0.194	0.549	1	17g
Overall	0.268	0.750	40	414g

4 William Contreras R 0.777

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.754	33	284g
Mild (60–80°)	0.272	0.777	33	286g
at PNC Park	0.267	0.727	2	16g
Overall	0.271	0.777	51	406g

5 Jake Bauers L 0.766

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.233	0.759	33	230g
Mild (60–80°)	0.245	0.782	28	204g
at PNC Park	0.283	0.887	3	15g
Overall	0.235	0.766	39	296g

6 Luis Lara S 0.802

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.286	0.802	5g
Mild (60–80°)	0.333	1.167	1g
at PNC Park	0.333	1.056	3g
Overall	0.286	0.802	5g

7 Cooper Pratt R 0.685

Split	AVG	OPS	n
vs RHP	0.300	0.807	16g
Mild (60–80°)	0.231	0.630	13g
at PNC Park	0.250	0.625	2g
Overall	0.257	0.685	24g

8 Sal Frelick L 0.685

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.678	14	283g
Mild (60–80°)	0.264	0.701	15	268g
at PNC Park	0.269	0.694	1	15g
Overall	0.264	0.685	19	388g

9 Joey Ortiz R 0.633

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.234	0.636	12	264g
Mild (60–80°)	0.230	0.639	13	270g
at PNC Park	0.236	0.639	1	17g
Overall	0.228	0.633	21	386g

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed

1 Jake Mangum S 0.711

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.323	0.762	4	143g
Mild (60–80°)	0.292	0.667	3	85g
at PNC Park	0.333	0.823	2	42g
Overall	0.301	0.711	5	194g

2 Brandon Lowe L 0.788

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.252	0.794	59	259g
Mild (60–80°)	0.254	0.786	39	185g
at PNC Park	0.227	0.721	10	52g
Overall	0.250	0.788	73	331g

3 Bryan Reynolds S 0.777

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.264	0.776	39	305g
Mild (60–80°)	0.240	0.693	20	216g
at PNC Park	0.290	0.864	29	207g
Overall	0.266	0.777	54	407g

4 Esmerlyn Valdez R 1.088

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.288	1.092	7	18g
Mild (60–80°)	0.351	1.373	7	12g
at PNC Park	0.327	1.278	8	15g
Overall	0.309	1.088	10	28g

5 Ryan O'Hearn L 0.790

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.282	0.798	41	295g
Mild (60–80°)	0.270	0.753	25	201g
at PNC Park	0.311	0.968	13	45g
Overall	0.276	0.790	48	373g

6 Nick Gonzales R 0.704

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.283	0.704	11	204g
Mild (60–80°)	0.301	0.757	11	139g
at PNC Park	0.261	0.643	2	144g
Overall	0.278	0.704	16	281g

7 Tyler Callihan L 0.740

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.234	0.713	3	28g
Mild (60–80°)	0.182	0.695	1	15g
at PNC Park	0.295	1.016	3	17g
Overall	0.238	0.740	3	33g

8 Jared Triolo R 0.625

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.208	0.586	12	206g
Mild (60–80°)	0.213	0.598	8	165g
at PNC Park	0.233	0.639	8	145g
Overall	0.223	0.625	17	295g

9 Henry Davis R 0.519

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.164	0.532	13	137g
Mild (60–80°)	0.151	0.491	8	101g
at PNC Park	0.188	0.581	9	96g
Overall	0.162	0.519	16	186g

Injured List

MIL (11 on IL)

Kyle Harrison P Injured 15-Day
Joel Kuhnel P Injured 15-Day
David Hamilton 3B Injured 10-Day
Quinn Priester P Injured 60-Day
Angel Zerpa P Injured 60-Day
Carlos Rodriguez P Injured 15-Day
Rob Zastryzny P Injured 15-Day
DL Hall P Injured 15-Day
Brandon Lockridge LF Injured 60-Day
Brandon Woodruff P Injured 60-Day
Brian Fitzpatrick P Injured 60-Day

PIT (7 on IL)

Spencer Horwitz 1B Injured 10-Day
Endy Rodríguez C Injured 10-Day
Evan Sisk P Injured 15-Day
Oneil Cruz CF Injured 10-Day
Chris Devenski P Injured 60-Day
Konnor Griffin SS Injured 60-Day
Wilber Dotel P Injured 15-Day

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction — July 11, 2026

What the AIs predict

Starting Pitchers

Head to Head 2026 season

Team Data (season)

Form & Market Trends

Confirmed Lineups

MIL Milwaukee Brewers Confirmed

PIT Pittsburgh Pirates Confirmed

Injured List

See the whole board, not just the score.