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← Games UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
SD logo
SD
San Diego Padres
Thu, Jul 2
10:10 PM ET
LAD logo
LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
45% Win Probability 55%
● Free pick of the day Preliminary · probable lineups
Base
LAD
55%
Total Model
—
RFI
NRFI
60%
1st inning
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.91 · temp ×1.000 · expected total 7.4
SD starter Locked
Starter TBA
starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 3.52 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.61 runs
LAD starter Locked
Starter TBA
starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 4.03 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.82 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

LAD — home · night
165 games
Win %
66.1% +16.1%
league 50.0%
Avg total
9.21 +0.35
league 8.86
YRFI
53.9% +4.9%
league 49.0%
Scored first
41.2% -8.8%
league 50.0%
Refine in Explore →
SD — away · night
125 games
Win %
52.0% +2.0%
league 50.0%
Avg total
8.52 -0.34
league 8.86
YRFI
49.6% 0.6%
league 49.0%
Scored first
57.6% +7.6%
league 50.0%
Refine in Explore →

Head to Head 2026 season

2
SD
6 games
7.7 avg runs
4
LAD

Team Data (season)

SDLAD
43-39Record54-30
3.91Runs / g5.27
4.07Runs allowed / g3.46
44%Scored first58%
39%Cover -1.548%
65%Cover +1.577%

Form & Market Trends

SD San Diego Padres n 10/82/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 60% 52% 55%
Cover -1.5 40% 39% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 65% 69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 38% 42%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 40% 41%
Team over 4.5 60% 37% 42%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 34% 36%
Run in 1st (RFI) 20% 33% 48%
Extra innings 20% 6% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 35% 43%
Race to 4 50% 30% 39%
Race to 5 60% 32% 35%
Race to 6 30% 23% 25%
Race to 7 20% 21% 21%
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers n 10/84/179
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 64% 59%
Cover -1.5 30% 48% 42%
Cover +1.5 80% 77% 73%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 55% 45%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 46% 51%
Team over 4.5 40% 46% 55%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 50% 47%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 48% 51%
Extra innings 0% 0% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 54% 53%
Race to 4 40% 52% 46%
Race to 5 30% 42% 44%
Race to 6 30% 35% 32%
Race to 7 20% 29% 24%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SD San Diego Padres Probable

1 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 0.799
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.275 0.799 53 348g
2 Samad Taylor R 0.743
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.309 0.743 1 26g
3 Manny Machado R 0.766
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.255 0.766 73 401g
4 Miguel Andujar R 0.739
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.287 0.739 19 232g
5 Ty France R 0.675
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.246 0.675 30 339g
6 Jackson Merrill L 0.764
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.264 0.764 50 360g
7 Xander Bogaerts R 0.690
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.254 0.690 31 335g
8 Freddy Fermin R 0.635
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.244 0.635 14 277g
9 Jake Cronenworth L 0.680
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium no games
Overall 0.230 0.680 29 332g

LAD Los Angeles Dodgers Probable

1 Shohei Ohtani L 1.003
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.266 0.885 9 35g
Overall 0.292 1.003 137 426g
2 Andy Pages R 0.734
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.297 0.880 7 39g
Overall 0.256 0.734 57 379g
3 Freddie Freeman L 0.851
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.252 0.733 6 40g
Overall 0.284 0.851 65 405g
4 Mookie Betts R 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.224 0.737 5 23g
Overall 0.265 0.783 54 348g
5 Teoscar Hernández R 0.788
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.305 0.806 2 25g
Overall 0.262 0.788 73 372g
6 Kyle Tucker L 0.839
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.191 0.587 2 38g
Overall 0.263 0.839 53 302g
7 Max Muncy L 0.836
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.234 0.816 9 37g
Overall 0.240 0.836 56 284g
8 Miguel Rojas R 0.718
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.322 0.806 1 26g
Overall 0.271 0.718 16 283g
9 Dalton Rushing L 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 0.226 0.671 2 22g
Overall 0.221 0.681 13 103g

Injured List

SD (10 on IL)
LAD (13 on IL)