← Games
Globe Life Field
DET
Detroit Tigers
Thu, Jul 2
8:05 PM ET
TEX
Texas Rangers
51%
Win Probability
49%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.
Starting Pitchers
park ×0.85 · temp ×1.060 · expected total 7.8
DET starter
Locked
4.05 ERA · 7.2 K/9
starter 4.44 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 4.31 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.98 runs
TEX starter
Locked
Starter TBA
starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 4.12 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.83 runs
Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.
Head to Head 2026 season
2
DET
3 games
7.7 avg runs
1
TEX
Team Data (season)
| DET | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-49 | Record | 43-42 |
| 4.13 | Runs / g | 4.07 |
| 4.12 | Runs allowed / g | 4.13 |
| 55% | Scored first | 51% |
| 32% | Cover -1.5 | 33% |
| 61% | Cover +1.5 | 62% |
Form & Market Trends
DET Detroit Tigers
n 10/85/170
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 50% | 42% | 54% |
| Cover -1.5 | 40% | 32% | 40% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 61% | 62% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 70% | 44% | 46% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 40% | 41% | 52% |
| Team over 4.5 | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 50% | 42% | 45% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 30% | 45% | 45% |
| Extra innings | 20% | 8% | 9% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 50% | 45% | 47% |
| Race to 4 | 50% | 38% | 46% |
| Race to 5 | 50% | 35% | 36% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 24% | 31% |
| Race to 7 | 20% | 16% | 24% |
TEX Texas Rangers
n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 70% | 51% | 50% |
| Cover -1.5 | 20% | 33% | 37% |
| Cover +1.5 | 70% | 62% | 68% |
| Lead after 5 (F5 spread) | 60% | 42% | 49% |
Totals
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (game) | 60% | 48% | 41% |
| Team over 4.5 | 40% | 41% | 39% |
| Team F5 over 2.5 | 40% | 36% | 40% |
| Run in 1st (RFI) | 40% | 64% | 44% |
| Extra innings | 10% | 4% | 10% |
Race to N runs (first to score)
| L10 | Szn | Prev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to 3 | 80% | 47% | 46% |
| Race to 4 | 60% | 36% | 43% |
| Race to 5 | 40% | 33% | 31% |
| Race to 6 | 30% | 25% | 26% |
| Race to 7 | 10% | 16% | 19% |
Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.
Projected Lineups
Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).
DET Detroit Tigers Probable
1 Matt Vierling R 0.676
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.229 | 0.649 | 7 | 86g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.188 | 0.375 | 0 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.238 | 0.676 | 22 | 254g |
2 Dillon Dingler R 0.748
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.244 | 0.657 | 5 | 65g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.333 | 0.929 | 0 | 2g |
| Overall | 0.257 | 0.748 | 34 | 239g |
3 Kevin McGonigle L 0.813
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.293 | 0.895 | 1 | 12g |
| at Globe Life Field | no games | |||
| Overall | 0.284 | 0.813 | 6 | 82g |
4 Spencer Torkelson R 0.727
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.238 | 0.746 | 15 | 82g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.200 | 0.533 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.226 | 0.727 | 54 | 346g |
5 Hao-Yu Lee R 0.682
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.250 | 0.641 | 0 | 4g |
| at Globe Life Field | no games | |||
| Overall | 0.258 | 0.682 | 3 | 47g |
6 Jahmai Jones R 0.726
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.173 | 0.601 | 2 | 55g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.229 | 0.726 | 10 | 165g |
7 Zach McKinstry L 0.681
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.253 | 0.777 | 10 | 103g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.188 | 0.778 | 1 | 5g |
| Overall | 0.233 | 0.681 | 20 | 335g |
8 Ben Malgeri R 0.533
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.000 | 0.333 | 0 | 2g |
| at Globe Life Field | no games | |||
| Overall | 0.200 | 0.533 | 0 | 5g |
9 James Outman L 0.520
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot (80°+) | 0.196 | 0.612 | 2 | 31g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0 | 3g |
| Overall | 0.148 | 0.520 | 12 | 175g |
TEX Texas Rangers Probable
1 Justin Foscue R 0.607
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.258 | 0.797 | 3 | 20g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.263 | 0.632 | 0 | 7g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.108 | 0.448 | 3 | 32g |
| Overall | 0.196 | 0.607 | 5 | 57g |
2 Josh Jung R 0.721
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.313 | 0.849 | 9 | 65g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.278 | 0.680 | 2 | 42g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.285 | 0.762 | 17 | 130g |
| Overall | 0.267 | 0.721 | 29 | 256g |
3 Ezequiel Duran R 0.634
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.238 | 0.590 | 2 | 81g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.197 | 0.537 | 3 | 45g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.255 | 0.651 | 3 | 116g |
| Overall | 0.247 | 0.634 | 9 | 258g |
4 Jake Burger R 0.733
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.258 | 0.749 | 16 | 94g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.303 | 0.871 | 10 | 54g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.226 | 0.638 | 9 | 87g |
| Overall | 0.248 | 0.733 | 59 | 322g |
5 Kyle Higashioka R 0.710
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.215 | 0.699 | 14 | 75g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.226 | 0.680 | 5 | 46g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.213 | 0.610 | 6 | 67g |
| Overall | 0.230 | 0.710 | 36 | 231g |
6 Alejandro Osuna L 0.593
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.176 | 0.449 | 0 | 20g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.225 | 0.520 | 0 | 18g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.224 | 0.589 | 1 | 58g |
| Overall | 0.231 | 0.593 | 2 | 114g |
7 Cameron Cauley R 1.500
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.333 | 1.500 | 0 | 1g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.333 | 1.500 | 0 | 1g |
| at Globe Life Field | no games | |||
| Overall | 0.333 | 1.500 | 0 | 1g |
8 Nicky Lopez L 0.600
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.214 | 0.442 | 0 | 29g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.256 | 0.619 | 0 | 40g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.333 | 0.796 | 1 | 17g |
| Overall | 0.246 | 0.600 | 2 | 174g |
9 Evan Carter L 0.649
| Split | AVG | OPS | HR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | 0.139 | 0.415 | 1 | 38g |
| Hot (80°+) | 0.239 | 0.609 | 1 | 27g |
| at Globe Life Field | 0.196 | 0.645 | 6 | 73g |
| Overall | 0.207 | 0.649 | 16 | 176g |
Injured List
DET (11 on IL)
- Justin Verlander P Injured 60-Day
- Burch Smith P Injured 60-Day
- Brant Hurter P Injured 60-Day
- Reese Olson P Injured 60-Day
- Javier Báez SS Injured 60-Day
- Wenceel Pérez RF Injured 60-Day
- Parker Meadows CF Injured 60-Day
- Jackson Jobe P Injured 60-Day
- Bailey Horn P Injured 60-Day
- Gleyber Torres 2B Injured 10-Day
- Trey Sweeney SS Injured 60-Day
TEX (11 on IL)
- Wyatt Langford LF Injured 10-Day
- Jack Leiter P Injured 15-Day
- Cody Freeman 3B Injured 10-Day
- Robert Garcia P Injured 60-Day
- Michael Helman CF Injured 60-Day
- Chris Martin P Injured 15-Day
- Cody Bradford P Injured 60-Day
- Jalen Beeks P Injured 10-Day
- Danny Jansen C Injured 10-Day
- Jordan Montgomery P Injured 60-Day
- Carter Baumler P Injured 60-Day
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