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Tampa Bay Rays

Thu, Jul 2

7:40 PM ET

Kansas City Royals

52% Win Probability 48%

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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.96 · temp ×1.039 · expected total 9.4

TB starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.1 ip

bullpen 4.76 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.50 runs

KC starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.3 ip

bullpen 5.86 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.94 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

KC — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

4 games

10.8 avg runs

Team Data (season)

TB		KC
48-33	Record	35-50
4.52	Runs / g	4.20
4.22	Runs allowed / g	5.02
51%	Scored first	44%
46%	Cover -1.5	31%
70%	Cover +1.5	58%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/81/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	70%	59%	48%
Cover -1.5	60%	46%	34%
Cover +1.5	90%	70%	65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	60%	47%	44%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	20%	40%	48%
Team over 4.5	60%	48%	38%
Team F5 over 2.5	60%	43%	46%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	51%	54%
Extra innings	0%	11%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	57%	51%
Race to 4	70%	52%	42%
Race to 5	50%	43%	32%
Race to 6	20%	28%	27%
Race to 7	10%	20%	22%

KC Kansas City Royals n 10/85/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	41%	51%
Cover -1.5	20%	31%	36%
Cover +1.5	60%	58%	63%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	50%	36%	43%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	70%	47%	42%
Team over 4.5	50%	40%	33%
Team F5 over 2.5	50%	36%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	49%	46%
Extra innings	0%	8%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	40%	40%	43%
Race to 4	30%	34%	35%
Race to 5	40%	25%	26%
Race to 6	30%	20%	25%
Race to 7	20%	13%	19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TB Tampa Bay Rays Probable

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.824

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.290	0.818	17	115g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.263	0.707	0	5g
Overall	0.300	0.824	51	373g

2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.842

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.304	0.810	6	73g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.417	0.917	0	3g
Overall	0.292	0.842	33	230g

3 Junior Caminero R 0.853

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.288	0.869	25	101g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.154	0.615	1	3g
Overall	0.270	0.853	73	278g

4 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.654

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.600	1.867	1	3g
at Kauffman Stadium	no games
Overall	0.194	0.654	4	39g

5 Chandler Simpson L 0.651

Split	AVG	OPS	n
Hot (80°+)	0.288	0.655	76g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.250	0.667	3g
Overall	0.282	0.651	187g

6 Cedric Mullins L 0.682

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.252	0.771	15	116g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.333	0.844	0	5g
Overall	0.223	0.682	44	353g

7 Ben Williamson R 0.613

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.301	0.713	1	21g
at Kauffman Stadium	no games
Overall	0.246	0.613	3	144g

8 Taylor Walls S 0.584

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.193	0.557	3	77g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.133	0.369	0	5g
Overall	0.209	0.584	5	249g

9 Nick Fortes R 0.595

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.258	0.616	2	57g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.167	0.333	0	2g
Overall	0.234	0.595	10	269g

KC Kansas City Royals Probable

1 Lane Thomas R 0.668

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.272	0.838	15	93g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.237	0.719	3	35g
Overall	0.220	0.668	26	249g

2 Bobby Witt Jr. R 0.886

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.327	0.978	32	138g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.328	0.958	32	201g
Overall	0.307	0.886	65	403g

3 Carter Jensen L 0.792

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.292	0.888	4	26g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.271	0.820	5	48g
Overall	0.260	0.792	14	98g

4 Starling Marte R 0.711

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.272	0.761	4	42g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.306	0.748	0	14g
Overall	0.269	0.711	17	243g

5 Salvador Perez R 0.707

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.272	0.799	28	133g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.246	0.694	28	198g
Overall	0.243	0.707	68	398g

6 Michael Massey L 0.691

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.264	0.754	9	74g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.269	0.722	11	125g
Overall	0.257	0.691	24	249g

7 Isaac Collins S 0.706

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.259	0.781	4	48g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.273	0.767	3	37g
Overall	0.243	0.706	12	222g

8 Tyler Tolbert R 0.616

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.278	0.686	1	34g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.216	0.500	0	43g
Overall	0.256	0.616	1	90g

9 Kameron Misner L 0.588

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.217	0.597	1	43g
at Kauffman Stadium	0.438	0.908	0	6g
Overall	0.213	0.588	5	92g

Injured List

TB (9 on IL)

Steven Matz P Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot P Injured 60-Day
Edwin Uceta P Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez P Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley P Injured 60-Day
Steven Wilson P Injured 60-Day
Jake Fraley RF Injured 10-Day
Gavin Lux LF Injured 60-Day
Jesse Scholtens P Injured 15-Day

KC (10 on IL)

Cole Ragans P Injured 60-Day
James McArthur P Injured 60-Day
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B Injured 10-Day
Kyle Isbel CF Injured 10-Day
Maikel Garcia 3B Injured 10-Day
Alec Marsh P Injured 60-Day
Carlos Estévez P Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears P Injured 15-Day
Jonathan India 2B Injured 60-Day
Kris Bubic P Injured 15-Day