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STL

St. Louis Cardinals

Thu, Jul 2

7:15 PM ET

ATL

Atlanta Braves

50% Win Probability 50%

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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.072 · expected total 8.3

STL starter Locked

Dustin May

4.30 ERA · 8.3 K/9

starter 4.50 R/9 over ~5.5 ip

bullpen 4.72 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.58 runs

ATL starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.3 ip

bullpen 2.99 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 3.76 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

ATL — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head

No head-to-head meetings recorded this season.

Team Data (season)

STL		ATL
43-38	Record	49-33
4.47	Runs / g	4.76
4.57	Runs allowed / g	3.68
56%	Scored first	54%
35%	Cover -1.5	48%
67%	Cover +1.5	72%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

STL St. Louis Cardinals n 10/81/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	53%	48%
Cover -1.5	10%	35%	32%
Cover +1.5	50%	67%	61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	44%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	46%	51%
Team over 4.5	30%	49%	43%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	47%	38%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	46%	51%
Extra innings	0%	11%	7%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	20%	47%	40%
Race to 4	10%	36%	35%
Race to 5	10%	37%	31%
Race to 6	10%	31%	26%
Race to 7	10%	20%	19%

ATL Atlanta Braves n 10/82/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	30%	60%	47%
Cover -1.5	10%	48%	34%
Cover +1.5	60%	72%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	45%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	51%	49%
Team over 4.5	20%	50%	41%
Team F5 over 2.5	20%	43%	42%
Run in 1st (RFI)	30%	54%	51%
Extra innings	10%	7%	10%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	50%	41%
Race to 4	20%	48%	40%
Race to 5	0%	41%	33%
Race to 6	10%	35%	28%
Race to 7	0%	27%	23%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

STL St. Louis Cardinals Probable

1 JJ Wetherholt L 0.752

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.194	0.592	3	16g
at Truist Park	no games
Overall	0.265	0.752	12	77g

2 Iván Herrera R 0.798

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.236	0.655	6	80g
at Truist Park	no games
Overall	0.279	0.798	34	260g

3 Alec Burleson L 0.778

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.280	0.805	25	141g
at Truist Park	0.423	0.983	1	6g
Overall	0.279	0.778	52	371g

4 Lars Nootbaar L 0.725

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.237	0.740	13	98g
at Truist Park	0.261	0.958	2	6g
Overall	0.242	0.725	27	264g

5 Masyn Winn R 0.688

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.259	0.719	13	139g
at Truist Park	0.333	0.792	0	5g
Overall	0.257	0.688	27	352g

6 Bryan Torres L 0.776

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.259	0.792	2	11g
at Truist Park	no games
Overall	0.234	0.776	3	20g

7 Blaze Jordan R 0.697

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.641	0	4g
at Truist Park	no games
Overall	0.250	0.697	1	14g

8 Nathan Church L 0.640

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.208	0.562	1	22g
at Truist Park	no games
Overall	0.240	0.640	6	90g

9 Pedro Pagés R 0.636

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.257	0.667	7	81g
at Truist Park	0.308	0.692	0	3g
Overall	0.230	0.636	22	225g

ATL Atlanta Braves Probable

1 Mauricio Dubón R 0.674

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.650	10	241g
Hot (80°+)	0.298	0.799	7	52g
at Truist Park	0.274	0.767	5	38g
Overall	0.259	0.674	19	350g

2 Michael Harris II L 0.728

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.265	0.722	36	240g
Hot (80°+)	0.267	0.763	21	108g
at Truist Park	0.250	0.667	19	168g
Overall	0.266	0.728	51	348g

3 Ozzie Albies S 0.698

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.229	0.647	23	234g
Hot (80°+)	0.249	0.664	9	110g
at Truist Park	0.258	0.694	15	163g
Overall	0.251	0.698	38	340g

4 Matt Olson L 0.826

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.262	0.822	50	284g
Hot (80°+)	0.274	0.836	28	148g
at Truist Park	0.263	0.787	30	200g
Overall	0.262	0.826	78	408g

5 Drake Baldwin L 0.800

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.260	0.780	23	134g
Hot (80°+)	0.247	0.716	7	55g
at Truist Park	0.278	0.817	16	89g
Overall	0.267	0.800	33	183g

6 Austin Riley R 0.719

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.258	0.771	34	200g
Hot (80°+)	0.259	0.767	17	102g
at Truist Park	0.270	0.777	21	134g
Overall	0.245	0.719	43	294g

7 Joey Bart R 0.720

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.261	0.700	9	137g
Hot (80°+)	0.253	0.683	4	64g
at Truist Park	0.111	0.269	0	5g
Overall	0.254	0.720	20	199g

8 Eli White R 0.665

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.272	0.737	9	127g
Hot (80°+)	0.237	0.738	6	53g
at Truist Park	0.211	0.595	6	87g
Overall	0.235	0.665	14	191g

9 Ha-Seong Kim R 0.633

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.234	0.704	14	123g
Hot (80°+)	0.216	0.605	3	55g
at Truist Park	0.171	0.450	1	32g
Overall	0.215	0.633	16	195g

Injured List

STL (2 on IL)

Ryan Fernandez P Injured 15-Day
Ramón Urías 3B Injured 60-Day

ATL (10 on IL)

Robert Suarez P Injured 15-Day
Danny Young P Injured 60-Day
Kyle Farmer DH Injured 10-Day
Joey Wentz P Injured 60-Day
Sean Murphy C Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider P Injured 60-Day
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF Injured 10-Day
AJ Smith-Shawver P Injured 60-Day
Joe Jiménez P Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach P Injured 60-Day