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CWS

Chicago White Sox

Thu, Jul 2

6:40 PM ET

CLE

Cleveland Guardians

51% Win Probability 49%

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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.054 · expected total 8.5

CWS starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~4.7 ip

bullpen 4.52 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.30 runs

CLE starter Locked

Slade Cecconi

4.18 ERA · 7.0 K/9

starter 4.35 R/9 over ~5.3 ip

bullpen 4.25 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 4.21 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

CLE — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

CWS

3 games

7.0 avg runs

CLE

Team Data (season)

CWS		CLE
43-39	Record	44-40
4.78	Runs / g	3.94
4.56	Runs allowed / g	4.04
56%	Scored first	51%
32%	Cover -1.5	36%
65%	Cover +1.5	69%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

CWS Chicago White Sox n 10/82/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	52%	37%
Cover -1.5	20%	32%	28%
Cover +1.5	90%	65%	59%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	20%	38%	36%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	55%	49%
Team over 4.5	30%	50%	34%
Team F5 over 2.5	20%	49%	34%
Run in 1st (RFI)	30%	56%	56%
Extra innings	20%	13%	6%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	50%	45%	40%
Race to 4	50%	40%	30%
Race to 5	20%	35%	27%
Race to 6	20%	34%	23%
Race to 7	10%	18%	19%

CLE Cleveland Guardians n 10/84/165

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	52%	54%
Cover -1.5	20%	36%	38%
Cover +1.5	80%	69%	67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	43%	38%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	44%	41%
Team over 4.5	30%	32%	36%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	37%	35%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	43%	45%
Extra innings	10%	7%	11%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	50%	48%	48%
Race to 4	40%	36%	38%
Race to 5	30%	30%	30%
Race to 6	20%	25%	24%
Race to 7	10%	17%	16%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

CWS Chicago White Sox Probable

1 Sam Antonacci L 0.762

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.290	0.735	3	47g
Hot (80°+)	0.333	0.902	1	12g
at Progressive Field	no games
Overall	0.292	0.762	4	64g

2 Miguel Vargas R 0.712

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.220	0.717	31	199g
Hot (80°+)	0.231	0.723	12	69g
at Progressive Field	0.174	0.391	0	6g
Overall	0.222	0.712	40	291g

3 Colson Montgomery L 0.802

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.218	0.766	30	111g
Hot (80°+)	0.215	0.807	12	39g
at Progressive Field	0.000	0.125	0	3g
Overall	0.230	0.802	41	150g

4 Kyle Teel L 0.774

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.278	0.793	9	77g
Hot (80°+)	0.312	0.790	2	24g
at Progressive Field	0.125	0.250	0	2g
Overall	0.270	0.774	9	83g

5 Randal Grichuk R 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.257	0.792	14	157g
Hot (80°+)	0.269	0.784	5	62g
at Progressive Field	0.200	0.667	1	6g
Overall	0.260	0.789	30	272g

6 Braden Montgomery S 0.729

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.261	0.777	2	12g
Hot (80°+)	0.167	0.583	1	3g
at Progressive Field	no games
Overall	0.246	0.729	2	17g

7 Tristan Peters L 0.739

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.280	0.780	4	61g
Hot (80°+)	0.300	0.899	1	14g
at Progressive Field	no games
Overall	0.268	0.739	4	82g

8 Chase Meidroth R 0.673

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.676	6	145g
Hot (80°+)	0.260	0.636	0	44g
at Progressive Field	0.300	0.900	1	3g
Overall	0.262	0.673	11	202g

9 Jacob Gonzalez L 0.624

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.218	0.641	2	17g
Hot (80°+)	0.333	0.916	1	8g
at Progressive Field	no games
Overall	0.219	0.624	2	22g

CLE Cleveland Guardians Probable

1 Travis Bazzana L 0.778

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.136	0.406	0	6g
at Progressive Field	0.239	0.687	1	25g
Overall	0.256	0.778	7	53g

2 Brayan Rocchio S 0.650

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.202	0.590	5	89g
at Progressive Field	0.249	0.655	7	176g
Overall	0.235	0.650	20	352g

3 Chase DeLauter L 0.742

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.273	0.724	0	7g
at Progressive Field	0.271	0.705	2	36g
Overall	0.263	0.742	7	69g

4 Rhys Hoskins R 0.709

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.208	0.682	10	56g
at Progressive Field	0.221	0.775	3	34g
Overall	0.212	0.709	45	291g

5 Kahlil Watson L 0.764

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	no games
at Progressive Field	0.400	1.000	0	3g
Overall	0.290	0.764	1	10g

6 David Fry R 0.728

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.199	0.603	6	76g
at Progressive Field	0.237	0.737	12	117g
Overall	0.232	0.728	28	251g

7 Steven Kwan L 0.711

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.236	0.654	8	92g
at Progressive Field	0.261	0.719	15	179g
Overall	0.270	0.711	26	367g

8 Gabriel Arias R 0.616

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.222	0.665	5	39g
at Progressive Field	0.224	0.641	6	94g
Overall	0.219	0.616	16	204g

9 Austin Hedges R 0.530

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.185	0.553	2	55g
at Progressive Field	0.205	0.519	1	92g
Overall	0.184	0.530	8	183g

Injured List

CWS (12 on IL)

Mike Vasil P Injured 60-Day
Tanner Murray LF Injured 60-Day
Austin Hays LF Injured 60-Day
Ky Bush P Injured 60-Day
Brooks Baldwin LF Injured 60-Day
Prelander Berroa P Injured 60-Day
Jordan Leasure P Injured 60-Day
Drew Thorpe P Injured 60-Day
Everson Pereira RF Injured 7-Day
Tyler Gilbert P Injured 15-Day
Noah Schultz P Injured 15-Day
Munetaka Murakami 1B Injured 10-Day

CLE (2 on IL)

José Ramírez 3B Injured 10-Day
Angel Martínez LF Injured 10-Day