predicted sports
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MIN logo
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Wed, Jul 1
8:10 PM ET
HOU logo
HOU
Houston Astros
50% Win Probability 50%
● Free pick of the day Preliminary · probable lineups
Base
MIN
50%
Total Model
—
RFI
NRFI
53%
1st inning
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.98 · temp ×1.060 · expected total 9.9
MIN starter Locked
Taj Bradley
3.98 ERA · 9.8 K/9
starter 4.10 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 5.94 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.99 runs
HOU starter Locked
Tatsuya Imai
5.36 ERA · 11.1 K/9
starter 4.81 R/9 over ~4.5 ip
bullpen 4.75 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.95 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

HOU — home · vs RHP · hot · night
0 games

No historical games match these exact conditions.

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MIN — away · vs RHP · hot · night
7 games
Win %
57.1% +7.1%
league 50.0%
Avg total
9.29 +0.43
league 8.86
YRFI
57.1% +8.1%
league 49.0%
Scored first
57.1% +7.1%
league 50.0%

Small sample — treat as a curiosity.

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Head to Head 2026 season

3
MIN
4 games
6.5 avg runs
1
HOU

Team Data (season)

MINHOU
41-45Record42-45
4.85Runs / g4.49
5.19Runs allowed / g4.99
52%Scored first51%
36%Cover -1.538%
63%Cover +1.554%

Form & Market Trends

MIN Minnesota Twins n 10/86/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 48% 43%
Cover -1.5 20% 36% 34%
Cover +1.5 70% 63% 60%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 48% 40%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 57% 49%
Team over 4.5 50% 50% 41%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 50% 36%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 56% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 51% 43%
Race to 4 40% 48% 38%
Race to 5 30% 35% 32%
Race to 6 20% 23% 23%
Race to 7 20% 19% 17%
HOU Houston Astros n 10/87/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 60% 48% 54%
Cover -1.5 40% 38% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 54% 64%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 36% 41%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 56% 45%
Team over 4.5 30% 40% 39%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 44% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 60% 45%
Extra innings 20% 10% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 39% 43%
Race to 4 20% 36% 40%
Race to 5 10% 25% 35%
Race to 6 10% 21% 28%
Race to 7 30% 23% 20%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIN Minnesota Twins Probable

1 Trevor Larnach L 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.254 0.751 36 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.261 0.777 12 76g
at Daikin Park 0.125 0.347 0 3g
Overall 0.261 0.755 37 324g
2 Brooks Lee S 0.670
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.702 24 200g
Hot (80°+) 0.245 0.655 7 78g
at Daikin Park 0.438 1.250 2 4g
Overall 0.238 0.670 33 271g
3 Kody Clemens L 0.722
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.216 0.727 34 188g
Hot (80°+) 0.204 0.654 8 63g
at Daikin Park 0.000 0.000 0 3g
Overall 0.222 0.722 37 238g
4 Josh Bell S 0.721
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.733 39 263g
Hot (80°+) 0.248 0.729 12 85g
at Daikin Park 0.250 0.938 1 4g
Overall 0.243 0.721 51 368g
5 Royce Lewis R 0.699
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.704 25 170g
Hot (80°+) 0.221 0.626 8 72g
at Daikin Park 0.375 1.500 2 2g
Overall 0.230 0.699 37 240g
6 Victor Caratini S 0.715
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.263 0.730 20 197g
Hot (80°+) 0.323 0.893 5 35g
at Daikin Park 0.227 0.654 6 55g
Overall 0.257 0.715 27 265g
7 Ryan Kreidler R 0.606
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.205 0.606 4 65g
Hot (80°+) 0.169 0.426 0 33g
at Daikin Park 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.201 0.606 6 94g
8 Tristan Gray L 0.626
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.226 0.639 7 81g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.659 2 28g
at Daikin Park 0.000 0.250 0 1g
Overall 0.224 0.626 7 100g
9 Luke Keaschall R 0.708
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.281 0.745 4 90g
Hot (80°+) 0.290 0.742 1 26g
at Daikin Park 0.333 0.833 0 1g
Overall 0.268 0.708 6 129g

HOU Houston Astros Probable

1 Jose Altuve R 0.760
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.256 0.721 37 275g
Hot (80°+) 0.306 0.865 9 42g
at Daikin Park 0.276 0.814 22 110g
Overall 0.272 0.760 54 373g
2 Yordan Alvarez L 0.950
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.302 0.957 50 207g
Hot (80°+) 0.298 1.010 8 22g
at Daikin Park 0.335 1.028 14 69g
Overall 0.302 0.950 66 282g
3 Isaac Paredes R 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.240 0.739 39 257g
Hot (80°+) 0.224 0.682 7 49g
at Daikin Park 0.245 0.802 17 92g
Overall 0.247 0.755 50 335g
4 Christian Walker R 0.753
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.749 56 268g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.764 13 49g
at Daikin Park 0.208 0.649 15 116g
Overall 0.242 0.753 72 369g
5 Taylor Trammell L 0.688
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.225 0.678 6 80g
Hot (80°+) 0.143 0.548 0 10g
at Daikin Park 0.236 0.658 2 40g
Overall 0.228 0.688 6 98g
6 Cam Smith R 0.669
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.634 13 163g
Hot (80°+) 0.284 0.795 3 22g
at Daikin Park 0.231 0.687 10 109g
Overall 0.230 0.669 20 219g
7 Joey Loperfido L 0.667
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.249 0.691 8 120g
Hot (80°+) 0.284 0.756 3 30g
at Daikin Park 0.250 0.662 0 16g
Overall 0.239 0.667 9 161g
8 Nick Allen R 0.532
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.198 0.475 0 152g
Hot (80°+) 0.228 0.571 0 54g
at Daikin Park 0.229 0.556 0 22g
Overall 0.217 0.532 2 214g
9 Christian Vázquez R 0.570
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.231 0.625 11 155g
Hot (80°+) 0.210 0.537 2 41g
at Daikin Park 0.180 0.528 2 32g
Overall 0.211 0.570 14 214g

Injured List

MIN (8 on IL)
HOU (9 on IL)