predicted sports
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← Games Kauffman Stadium
TB logo
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
Wed, Jul 1
7:40 PM ET
KC logo
KC
Kansas City Royals
54% Win Probability 46%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.96 · temp ×1.042 · expected total 9.5
TB starter Locked
Shane McClanahan
3.30 ERA · 8.9 K/9
starter 4.14 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 4.76 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.43 runs
KC starter Locked
Seth Lugo
4.18 ERA · 6.9 K/9
starter 4.48 R/9 over ~5.6 ip
bullpen 5.86 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.02 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
TB
4 games
10.8 avg runs
2
KC

Team Data (season)

TBKC
48-33Record35-50
4.52Runs / g4.20
4.22Runs allowed / g5.02
51%Scored first44%
46%Cover -1.531%
70%Cover +1.558%

Form & Market Trends

TB Tampa Bay Rays n 10/81/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 59% 48%
Cover -1.5 60% 46% 34%
Cover +1.5 90% 70% 65%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 47% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 20% 40% 48%
Team over 4.5 60% 48% 38%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 43% 46%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 51% 54%
Extra innings 0% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 60% 57% 51%
Race to 4 70% 52% 42%
Race to 5 50% 43% 32%
Race to 6 20% 28% 27%
Race to 7 10% 20% 22%
KC Kansas City Royals n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 41% 51%
Cover -1.5 20% 31% 36%
Cover +1.5 60% 58% 63%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 36% 43%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 70% 47% 42%
Team over 4.5 50% 40% 33%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 36% 38%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 49% 46%
Extra innings 0% 8% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 40% 43%
Race to 4 30% 34% 35%
Race to 5 40% 25% 26%
Race to 6 30% 20% 25%
Race to 7 20% 13% 19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TB Tampa Bay Rays Probable

1 Yandy Díaz R 0.824
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.291 0.793 33 267g
Hot (80°+) 0.290 0.818 17 115g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.263 0.707 0 5g
Overall 0.300 0.824 51 373g
2 Jonathan Aranda L 0.842
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.291 0.858 29 178g
Hot (80°+) 0.304 0.810 6 73g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.417 0.917 0 3g
Overall 0.292 0.842 33 230g
3 Junior Caminero R 0.853
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.271 0.866 56 201g
Hot (80°+) 0.288 0.869 25 101g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.154 0.615 1 3g
Overall 0.270 0.853 73 278g
4 Victor Mesa Jr. L 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.183 0.633 4 29g
Hot (80°+) 0.600 1.867 1 3g
at Kauffman Stadium no games
Overall 0.194 0.654 4 39g
5 Chandler Simpson L 0.651
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.303 0.700 0 134g
Hot (80°+) 0.288 0.655 0 76g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.250 0.667 0 3g
Overall 0.282 0.651 0 187g
6 Cedric Mullins L 0.682
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.674 37 266g
Hot (80°+) 0.252 0.771 15 116g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.333 0.844 0 5g
Overall 0.223 0.682 44 353g
7 Ben Williamson R 0.613
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.255 0.643 3 97g
Hot (80°+) 0.301 0.713 1 21g
at Kauffman Stadium no games
Overall 0.246 0.613 3 144g
8 Taylor Walls S 0.584
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.200 0.566 4 180g
Hot (80°+) 0.193 0.557 3 77g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.133 0.369 0 5g
Overall 0.209 0.584 5 249g
9 Nick Fortes R 0.595
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.229 0.602 9 168g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.616 2 57g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.167 0.333 0 2g
Overall 0.234 0.595 10 269g

KC Kansas City Royals Probable

1 Lane Thomas R 0.668
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.244 0.735 11 75g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.838 15 93g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.237 0.719 3 35g
Overall 0.220 0.668 26 249g
2 Bobby Witt Jr. R 0.886
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.278 0.783 6 93g
Hot (80°+) 0.327 0.978 32 138g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.328 0.958 32 201g
Overall 0.307 0.886 65 403g
3 Carter Jensen L 0.792
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.269 0.693 1 21g
Hot (80°+) 0.292 0.888 4 26g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.271 0.820 5 48g
Overall 0.260 0.792 14 98g
4 Starling Marte R 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.307 0.800 6 97g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.761 4 42g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.306 0.748 0 14g
Overall 0.269 0.711 17 243g
5 Salvador Perez R 0.707
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.240 0.654 12 93g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.799 28 133g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.246 0.694 28 198g
Overall 0.243 0.707 68 398g
6 Michael Massey L 0.691
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.261 0.671 0 46g
Hot (80°+) 0.264 0.754 9 74g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.269 0.722 11 125g
Overall 0.257 0.691 24 249g
7 Isaac Collins S 0.706
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.223 0.640 3 67g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.781 4 48g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.273 0.767 3 37g
Overall 0.243 0.706 12 222g
8 Tyler Tolbert R 0.616
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.222 0.515 0 28g
Hot (80°+) 0.278 0.686 1 34g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.216 0.500 0 43g
Overall 0.256 0.616 1 90g
9 Kameron Misner L 0.588
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.167 0.476 1 23g
Hot (80°+) 0.217 0.597 1 43g
at Kauffman Stadium 0.438 0.908 0 6g
Overall 0.213 0.588 5 92g

Injured List

TB (9 on IL)
KC (10 on IL)