predicted sports
Games Stats Teams Players Explore
← Games Rogers Centre
NYM logo
NYM
New York Mets
Wed, Jul 1
3:07 PM ET
TOR logo
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
51% Win Probability 49%
🔒
Unlock the full model

Sign in to unlock one free pick a day, or go Pro for unlimited access.

Go Pro
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.04 · temp ×1.060 · expected total 9.6
NYM starter Locked
Freddy Peralta
4.53 ERA · 8.7 K/9
starter 4.77 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 3.67 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.75 runs
TOR starter Locked
Patrick Corbin
5.09 ERA · 6.8 K/9
starter 4.76 R/9 over ~4.7 ip
bullpen 4.05 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.87 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

🔒
Unlock the full model

Sign in to unlock one free pick a day, or go Pro for unlimited access.

Go Pro

Head to Head

No head-to-head meetings recorded this season.

Team Data (season)

NYMTOR
35-49Record39-45
4.04Runs / g4.08
4.57Runs allowed / g4.48
44%Scored first42%
33%Cover -1.535%
60%Cover +1.564%

Form & Market Trends

NYM New York Mets n 10/84/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 20% 42% 51%
Cover -1.5 20% 33% 37%
Cover +1.5 50% 60% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 0% 35% 48%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 44% 52%
Team over 4.5 40% 35% 44%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 35% 43%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 49% 46%
Extra innings 10% 15% 8%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 39% 48%
Race to 4 30% 38% 43%
Race to 5 20% 30% 39%
Race to 6 20% 24% 28%
Race to 7 0% 20% 22%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays n 10/84/180
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 46% 58%
Cover -1.5 20% 35% 42%
Cover +1.5 60% 64% 70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 36% 43%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 48% 53%
Team over 4.5 30% 38% 48%
Team F5 over 2.5 10% 24% 44%
Run in 1st (RFI) 90% 54% 51%
Extra innings 10% 10% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 20% 35% 51%
Race to 4 20% 30% 49%
Race to 5 10% 27% 41%
Race to 6 20% 20% 34%
Race to 7 10% 13% 26%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

NYM New York Mets Probable

1 Carson Benge L 0.703
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.324 0.826 2 20g
Hot (80°+) 0.356 0.974 4 18g
at Rogers Centre no games
Overall 0.257 0.703 9 81g
2 Juan Soto L 0.963
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.261 0.894 28 109g
Hot (80°+) 0.298 1.004 31 104g
at Rogers Centre 0.350 1.219 2 6g
Overall 0.282 0.963 105 396g
3 Bo Bichette R 0.739
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.253 0.719 10 74g
Hot (80°+) 0.282 0.767 8 55g
at Rogers Centre 0.283 0.791 15 108g
Overall 0.275 0.739 33 311g
4 Francisco Lindor S 0.807
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.253 0.760 19 98g
Hot (80°+) 0.252 0.743 16 95g
at Rogers Centre 0.182 0.812 1 3g
Overall 0.267 0.807 68 352g
5 Jared Young L 0.737
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.133 0.649 1 11g
Hot (80°+) 0.228 0.723 4 21g
at Rogers Centre no games
Overall 0.219 0.737 10 61g
6 A.J. Ewing L 0.783
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.256 0.802 2 13g
Hot (80°+) 0.378 1.129 3 15g
at Rogers Centre no games
Overall 0.279 0.783 4 44g
7 Mark Vientos R 0.751
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.242 0.703 15 103g
Hot (80°+) 0.242 0.774 18 84g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.091 0 3g
Overall 0.246 0.751 59 314g
8 Brett Baty L 0.674
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.227 0.627 4 66g
Hot (80°+) 0.226 0.656 6 61g
at Rogers Centre no games
Overall 0.236 0.674 25 260g
9 Francisco Alvarez R 0.727
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.238 0.735 8 69g
Hot (80°+) 0.277 0.844 10 57g
at Rogers Centre 0.300 0.964 1 3g
Overall 0.247 0.727 30 243g

TOR Toronto Blue Jays Probable

1 George Springer R 0.786
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.262 0.796 45 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.235 0.722 8 49g
at Rogers Centre 0.265 0.819 36 192g
Overall 0.256 0.786 63 362g
2 Nathan Lukes L 0.747
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.273 0.749 16 175g
Hot (80°+) 0.328 0.939 6 39g
at Rogers Centre 0.260 0.693 6 115g
Overall 0.275 0.747 17 224g
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.874
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.310 0.871 48 312g
Hot (80°+) 0.362 1.114 20 63g
at Rogers Centre 0.293 0.847 30 211g
Overall 0.305 0.874 65 413g
4 Kazuma Okamoto R 0.779
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.242 0.794 14 61g
Hot (80°+) 0.214 0.588 1 7g
at Rogers Centre 0.264 0.811 10 45g
Overall 0.238 0.779 19 82g
5 Ernie Clement R 0.729
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.272 0.684 18 294g
Hot (80°+) 0.308 0.841 6 60g
at Rogers Centre 0.284 0.730 17 205g
Overall 0.285 0.729 29 395g
6 Brandon Valenzuela S 0.760
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.261 0.802 6 41g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.562 0 4g
at Rogers Centre 0.260 0.873 5 27g
Overall 0.245 0.760 7 52g
7 Luis Urías R 0.654
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.227 0.612 5 99g
Hot (80°+) 0.183 0.500 2 38g
at Rogers Centre 0.273 0.815 1 9g
Overall 0.223 0.654 13 142g
8 Yohendrick Piñango L 0.762
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.315 0.857 5 34g
Hot (80°+) 0.050 0.145 0 6g
at Rogers Centre 0.275 0.803 3 23g
Overall 0.276 0.762 5 45g
9 Myles Straw R 0.648
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.210 0.539 3 168g
Hot (80°+) 0.304 0.808 4 41g
at Rogers Centre 0.265 0.701 3 118g
Overall 0.249 0.648 6 231g

Injured List

NYM (8 on IL)
TOR (10 on IL)