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DET
Detroit Tigers
Wed, Jul 1
1:35 PM ET
NYY logo
NYY
New York Yankees
41% Win Probability 59%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.075 · expected total 8.9
DET starter Locked
Troy Melton
2.39 ERA · 6.0 K/9
starter 3.48 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 4.24 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.17 runs
NYY starter Locked
Will Warren
3.75 ERA · 9.0 K/9
starter 4.76 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 3.56 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.73 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

1
DET
3 games
7.0 avg runs
2
NYY

Team Data (season)

DETNYY
35-49Record48-35
4.10Runs / g4.93
4.13Runs allowed / g3.71
55%Scored first60%
31%Cover -1.547%
61%Cover +1.573%

Form & Market Trends

DET Detroit Tigers n 10/84/170
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 42% 54%
Cover -1.5 30% 31% 40%
Cover +1.5 70% 61% 62%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 43% 46%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 40% 52%
Team over 4.5 50% 39% 45%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 42% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 44% 45%
Extra innings 20% 8% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 44% 47%
Race to 4 50% 37% 46%
Race to 5 40% 35% 36%
Race to 6 20% 23% 31%
Race to 7 10% 15% 24%
NYY New York Yankees n 10/83/169
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 58% 57%
Cover -1.5 20% 47% 43%
Cover +1.5 40% 73% 70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 10% 43% 56%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 45% 51%
Team over 4.5 10% 43% 50%
Team F5 over 2.5 10% 39% 49%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 53% 56%
Extra innings 10% 6% 8%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 54% 56%
Race to 4 40% 52% 50%
Race to 5 10% 39% 41%
Race to 6 0% 33% 33%
Race to 7 0% 29% 28%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

DET Detroit Tigers Probable

1 Matt Vierling R 0.677
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.236 0.664 15 184g
Hot (80°+) 0.229 0.653 7 85g
at Yankee Stadium 0.333 0.889 0 3g
Overall 0.238 0.677 22 253g
2 Dillon Dingler R 0.748
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.253 0.730 25 173g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.655 5 64g
at Yankee Stadium 0.462 1.269 1 3g
Overall 0.257 0.748 34 238g
3 Kevin McGonigle L 0.811
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.301 0.871 5 59g
Hot (80°+) 0.270 0.885 1 11g
at Yankee Stadium no games
Overall 0.281 0.811 6 81g
4 Spencer Torkelson R 0.727
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.690 38 252g
Hot (80°+) 0.238 0.747 15 81g
at Yankee Stadium 0.227 0.638 0 6g
Overall 0.226 0.727 54 345g
5 Hao-Yu Lee R 0.669
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.286 0.805 3 25g
Hot (80°+) 0.143 0.393 0 3g
at Yankee Stadium no games
Overall 0.252 0.669 3 46g
6 Jahmai Jones R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.196 0.645 3 102g
Hot (80°+) 0.175 0.608 2 54g
at Yankee Stadium 0.143 0.468 0 16g
Overall 0.230 0.728 10 164g
7 Zach McKinstry L 0.680
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.223 0.651 16 263g
Hot (80°+) 0.251 0.777 10 102g
at Yankee Stadium 0.125 0.347 0 3g
Overall 0.232 0.680 20 334g
8 Ben Malgeri R 0.833
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP — — 0 2g
Hot (80°+) — — 0 1g
at Yankee Stadium no games
Overall 0.333 0.833 0 4g
9 James Outman L 0.520
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.149 0.535 11 126g
Hot (80°+) 0.192 0.621 2 30g
at Yankee Stadium no games
Overall 0.147 0.520 12 174g

NYY New York Yankees Probable

1 Ben Rice L 0.821
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.259 0.870 48 201g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.823 22 93g
at Yankee Stadium 0.235 0.840 32 133g
Overall 0.246 0.821 56 272g
2 Cody Bellinger L 0.789
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.769 47 275g
Hot (80°+) 0.278 0.846 24 106g
at Yankee Stadium 0.318 0.966 26 121g
Overall 0.266 0.789 59 371g
3 Paul Goldschmidt R 0.749
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.251 0.707 27 256g
Hot (80°+) 0.257 0.710 17 142g
at Yankee Stadium 0.241 0.691 10 110g
Overall 0.264 0.749 46 364g
4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 0.752
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.240 0.760 53 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.273 0.885 24 94g
at Yankee Stadium 0.250 0.797 30 145g
Overall 0.241 0.752 70 378g
5 Jasson Domínguez S 0.700
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.264 0.762 14 131g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.769 6 45g
at Yankee Stadium 0.247 0.698 4 81g
Overall 0.243 0.700 15 168g
6 Anthony Volpe R 0.666
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.220 0.634 27 271g
Hot (80°+) 0.217 0.648 13 116g
at Yankee Stadium 0.223 0.654 20 183g
Overall 0.232 0.666 34 369g
7 Spencer Jones L 0.649
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.231 0.710 2 19g
Hot (80°+) 0.368 1.000 1 8g
at Yankee Stadium 0.273 0.885 1 10g
Overall 0.215 0.649 2 27g
8 Austin Wells L 0.659
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.211 0.680 36 238g
Hot (80°+) 0.252 0.801 16 88g
at Yankee Stadium 0.206 0.661 17 156g
Overall 0.207 0.659 40 317g
9 José Caballero R 0.658
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.232 0.632 11 236g
Hot (80°+) 0.247 0.685 6 100g
at Yankee Stadium 0.254 0.717 5 65g
Overall 0.236 0.658 22 339g

Injured List

DET (11 on IL)
NYY (6 on IL)