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WSH logo
WSH
Washington Nationals
Wed, Jul 1
1:35 PM ET
BOS logo
BOS
Boston Red Sox
52% Win Probability 48%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.00 · temp ×1.075 · expected total 8.9
WSH starter Locked
Andrew Alvarez
3.44 ERA · 10.3 K/9
starter 3.92 R/9 over ~4.5 ip
bullpen 5.41 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.02 runs
BOS starter Locked
Payton Tolle
2.78 ERA · 8.7 K/9
starter 3.70 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 3.45 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.88 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
WSH
1 game
9.0 avg runs
1
BOS

Team Data (season)

WSHBOS
43-43Record37-46
5.26Runs / g4.02
5.23Runs allowed / g3.93
58%Scored first46%
36%Cover -1.537%
64%Cover +1.559%

Form & Market Trends

WSH Washington Nationals n 10/86/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 50% 41%
Cover -1.5 20% 36% 26%
Cover +1.5 60% 64% 52%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 55% 35%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 66% 56%
Team over 4.5 30% 52% 40%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 49% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 50% 52%
Extra innings 10% 12% 5%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 56% 34%
Race to 4 70% 50% 30%
Race to 5 30% 41% 27%
Race to 6 10% 31% 21%
Race to 7 10% 27% 17%
BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/83/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 45% 55%
Cover -1.5 60% 37% 41%
Cover +1.5 80% 59% 72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 80% 36% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 41% 46%
Team over 4.5 70% 42% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 60% 34% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 70% 54% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 43% 43%
Race to 4 70% 37% 42%
Race to 5 70% 35% 35%
Race to 6 40% 23% 28%
Race to 7 0% 14% 22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

WSH Washington Nationals Probable

1 James Wood L 0.830
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.249 0.719 14 98g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.792 19 116g
at Fenway Park 0.250 1.250 1 1g
Overall 0.258 0.830 61 322g
2 Andrés Chaparro R 0.601
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.189 0.571 2 43g
Hot (80°+) 0.183 0.608 3 29g
at Fenway Park 0.500 1.167 0 1g
Overall 0.196 0.601 5 91g
3 Curtis Mead R 0.660
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.245 0.698 8 75g
Hot (80°+) 0.227 0.673 5 56g
at Fenway Park 0.333 0.667 0 4g
Overall 0.232 0.660 18 198g
4 CJ Abrams L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.232 0.656 11 105g
Hot (80°+) 0.253 0.723 17 133g
at Fenway Park 0.312 0.688 0 4g
Overall 0.256 0.757 56 365g
5 Dylan Crews R 0.620
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.215 0.588 5 48g
Hot (80°+) 0.211 0.576 3 39g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.213 0.620 18 152g
6 Jacob Young R 0.614
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.256 0.660 6 112g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.663 5 126g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 4g
Overall 0.240 0.614 13 351g
7 Luis García Jr. L 0.758
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.250 0.705 6 84g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.759 19 125g
at Fenway Park 0.133 0.388 0 4g
Overall 0.270 0.758 50 358g
8 Nasim Nuñez S 0.622
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.257 0.689 2 57g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.659 1 41g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.236 0.622 4 170g
9 Keibert Ruiz S 0.637
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.216 0.555 4 72g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.670 11 91g
at Fenway Park 0.200 0.400 0 3g
Overall 0.244 0.637 21 250g

BOS Boston Red Sox Probable

1 Masataka Yoshida L 0.718
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.283 0.797 3 39g
Hot (80°+) 0.291 0.766 5 59g
at Fenway Park 0.277 0.726 7 106g
Overall 0.273 0.718 16 222g
2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.691
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.257 0.725 13 110g
Hot (80°+) 0.282 0.751 10 98g
at Fenway Park 0.265 0.708 19 197g
Overall 0.253 0.691 38 390g
3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.264 0.693 2 73g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.758 11 86g
at Fenway Park 0.248 0.759 22 166g
Overall 0.254 0.778 47 331g
4 Willson Contreras R 0.815
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.262 0.835 16 84g
Hot (80°+) 0.274 0.849 20 107g
at Fenway Park 0.306 0.944 10 44g
Overall 0.265 0.815 53 300g
5 Jarren Duran L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.256 0.725 9 102g
Hot (80°+) 0.294 0.907 20 98g
at Fenway Park 0.275 0.804 22 196g
Overall 0.256 0.757 49 397g
6 Caleb Durbin R 0.686
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.250 0.666 5 61g
Hot (80°+) 0.219 0.598 3 46g
at Fenway Park 0.207 0.611 3 39g
Overall 0.248 0.686 18 221g
7 Anthony Seigler S 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.353 0.862 0 10g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 0.844 0 17g
at Fenway Park 0.389 1.117 1 6g
Overall 0.255 0.673 1 46g
8 Carlos Narváez R 0.670
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.247 0.747 5 51g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.740 4 32g
at Fenway Park 0.250 0.745 8 84g
Overall 0.226 0.670 17 175g
9 Tsung-Che Cheng L 0.308
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Hot (80°+) no games
at Fenway Park 0.167 0.481 0 4g
Overall 0.105 0.308 0 7g

Injured List

WSH (8 on IL)
BOS (12 on IL)