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TEX logo
TEX
Texas Rangers
Wed, Jul 1
1:10 PM ET
CLE logo
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
52% Win Probability 48%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.060 · expected total 8.3
TEX starter Locked
MacKenzie Gore
4.05 ERA · 9.6 K/9
starter 4.14 R/9 over ~5.3 ip
bullpen 4.12 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.06 runs
CLE starter Locked
Joey Cantillo
3.87 ERA · 8.9 K/9
starter 4.29 R/9 over ~5.1 ip
bullpen 4.25 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.20 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

3
TEX
4 games
7.5 avg runs
1
CLE

Team Data (season)

TEXCLE
43-42Record44-41
4.07Runs / g3.93
4.13Runs allowed / g4.06
51%Scored first51%
33%Cover -1.535%
62%Cover +1.568%

Form & Market Trends

TEX Texas Rangers n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 51% 50%
Cover -1.5 20% 33% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 62% 68%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 60% 42% 49%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 48% 41%
Team over 4.5 40% 41% 39%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 36% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 64% 44%
Extra innings 10% 4% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 80% 47% 46%
Race to 4 60% 36% 43%
Race to 5 40% 33% 31%
Race to 6 30% 25% 26%
Race to 7 10% 16% 19%
CLE Cleveland Guardians n 10/85/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 52% 54%
Cover -1.5 10% 35% 38%
Cover +1.5 70% 68% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 44% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 45% 41%
Team over 4.5 30% 32% 36%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 36% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 42% 45%
Extra innings 10% 7% 11%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 47% 48%
Race to 4 30% 35% 38%
Race to 5 30% 29% 30%
Race to 6 20% 25% 24%
Race to 7 10% 16% 16%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

TEX Texas Rangers Probable

1 Justin Foscue R 0.607
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.797 3 20g
Hot (80°+) 0.263 0.632 0 7g
at Progressive Field 0.400 1.200 0 1g
Overall 0.196 0.607 5 57g
2 Josh Jung R 0.721
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.313 0.849 9 65g
Hot (80°+) 0.278 0.680 2 42g
at Progressive Field 0.300 0.756 0 7g
Overall 0.267 0.721 29 256g
3 Ezequiel Duran R 0.634
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.238 0.590 2 81g
Hot (80°+) 0.197 0.537 3 45g
at Progressive Field 0.053 0.158 0 6g
Overall 0.247 0.634 9 258g
4 Jake Burger R 0.733
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.749 16 94g
Hot (80°+) 0.303 0.871 10 54g
at Progressive Field 0.250 0.500 0 4g
Overall 0.248 0.733 59 322g
5 Kyle Higashioka R 0.710
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.215 0.699 14 75g
Hot (80°+) 0.226 0.680 5 46g
at Progressive Field 0.214 0.552 0 4g
Overall 0.230 0.710 36 231g
6 Alejandro Osuna L 0.593
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.176 0.449 0 20g
Hot (80°+) 0.225 0.520 0 18g
at Progressive Field 0.250 0.833 1 3g
Overall 0.231 0.593 2 114g
7 Cameron Cauley R 1.500
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.333 1.500 0 1g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 1.500 0 1g
at Progressive Field 0.333 1.500 0 1g
Overall 0.333 1.500 0 1g
8 Nicky Lopez L 0.600
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.214 0.442 0 29g
Hot (80°+) 0.256 0.619 0 40g
at Progressive Field 0.200 0.499 0 7g
Overall 0.246 0.600 2 174g
9 Evan Carter L 0.649
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.139 0.415 1 38g
Hot (80°+) 0.239 0.609 1 27g
at Progressive Field 0.667 1.333 0 1g
Overall 0.207 0.649 16 176g

CLE Cleveland Guardians Probable

1 Travis Bazzana L 0.759
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.246 0.733 2 18g
Hot (80°+) 0.111 0.337 0 7g
at Progressive Field 0.227 0.654 1 26g
Overall 0.250 0.759 7 54g
2 Brayan Rocchio S 0.650
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.220 0.643 7 101g
Hot (80°+) 0.206 0.594 5 90g
at Progressive Field 0.250 0.657 7 177g
Overall 0.236 0.650 20 353g
3 Chase DeLauter L 0.749
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.381 0.927 0 21g
Hot (80°+) 0.308 0.802 0 8g
at Progressive Field 0.277 0.721 2 37g
Overall 0.267 0.749 7 70g
4 Rhys Hoskins R 0.709
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.200 0.701 16 96g
Hot (80°+) 0.210 0.682 10 57g
at Progressive Field 0.225 0.771 3 35g
Overall 0.212 0.709 45 292g
5 Kahlil Watson L 0.734
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.222 0.444 0 3g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.500 0 1g
at Progressive Field 0.357 0.857 0 4g
Overall 0.286 0.734 1 11g
6 David Fry R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.252 0.790 16 99g
Hot (80°+) 0.202 0.607 6 77g
at Progressive Field 0.239 0.738 12 118g
Overall 0.233 0.728 28 252g
7 Steven Kwan L 0.711
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.701 9 101g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.652 8 93g
at Progressive Field 0.261 0.717 15 180g
Overall 0.269 0.711 26 368g
8 Gabriel Arias R 0.622
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.248 0.716 8 65g
Hot (80°+) 0.225 0.694 6 40g
at Progressive Field 0.225 0.654 7 95g
Overall 0.220 0.622 17 205g
9 Austin Hedges R 0.530
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.200 0.552 4 85g
Hot (80°+) 0.188 0.551 2 56g
at Progressive Field 0.206 0.519 1 93g
Overall 0.184 0.530 8 184g

Injured List

TEX (11 on IL)
CLE (2 on IL)