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San Francisco Giants

Tue, Jun 30

9:40 PM ET

Arizona Diamondbacks

53% Win Probability 47%

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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.13 · temp ×1.075 · expected total 10.8

SF starter Locked

Landen Roupp

4.07 ERA · 9.9 K/9

starter 4.42 R/9 over ~5.4 ip

bullpen 4.67 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.46 runs

AZ starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~5.4 ip

bullpen 4.54 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.32 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

AZ — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

6 games

9.3 avg runs

Team Data (season)

SF		AZ
35-48	Record	41-42
4.06	Runs / g	4.22
4.66	Runs allowed / g	4.59
43%	Scored first	37%
31%	Cover -1.5	33%
53%	Cover +1.5	65%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

SF San Francisco Giants n 10/83/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	42%	50%
Cover -1.5	30%	31%	33%
Cover +1.5	70%	53%	69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	35%	39%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	45%	49%
Team over 4.5	30%	36%	41%
Team F5 over 2.5	20%	31%	41%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	45%	53%
Extra innings	0%	7%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	42%	48%
Race to 4	30%	31%	43%
Race to 5	30%	30%	28%
Race to 6	20%	25%	26%
Race to 7	10%	17%	19%

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks n 10/83/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	40%	49%	49%
Cover -1.5	30%	33%	36%
Cover +1.5	50%	65%	67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	40%	40%	49%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	40%	46%	57%
Team over 4.5	40%	45%	54%
Team F5 over 2.5	30%	30%	45%
Run in 1st (RFI)	50%	55%	57%
Extra innings	0%	7%	12%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	30%	40%	51%
Race to 4	40%	40%	43%
Race to 5	30%	35%	40%
Race to 6	30%	27%	30%
Race to 7	30%	19%	19%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

SF San Francisco Giants Probable

1 Matt Chapman R 0.760

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.282	0.945	14	49g
at Chase Field	0.200	0.650	1	12g
Overall	0.240	0.760	55	364g

2 Luis Arraez L 0.735

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.341	0.822	5	60g
at Chase Field	0.259	0.650	0	13g
Overall	0.305	0.735	15	392g

3 Casey Schmitt R 0.755

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.258	0.762	6	27g
at Chase Field	0.308	1.011	3	9g
Overall	0.261	0.755	34	210g

4 Rafael Devers L 0.836

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.304	0.984	21	78g
at Chase Field	0.195	0.556	1	10g
Overall	0.257	0.836	77	384g

5 Heliot Ramos R 0.746

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.271	0.790	9	51g
at Chase Field	0.333	1.023	3	13g
Overall	0.263	0.746	47	323g

6 Bryce Eldridge L 0.795

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.316	0.855	1	5g
at Chase Field	0.214	0.552	0	4g
Overall	0.250	0.795	6	51g

7 Victor Bericoto R 0.804

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	no games
at Chase Field	no games
Overall	0.250	0.804	3	17g

8 Eric Haase R 0.707

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.267	0.685	2	22g
at Chase Field	0.375	1.125	1	2g
Overall	0.231	0.707	11	84g

9 Jonah Cox R 0.833

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.000	0.000	0	2g
at Chase Field	no games
Overall	0.292	0.833	1	19g

AZ Arizona Diamondbacks Probable

1 Ketel Marte S 0.879

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.274	0.873	55	232g
Hot (80°+)	0.314	0.995	26	82g
at Chase Field	0.286	0.867	32	170g
Overall	0.281	0.879	79	341g

2 Geraldo Perdomo S 0.783

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.267	0.785	20	240g
Hot (80°+)	0.217	0.649	3	82g
at Chase Field	0.293	0.798	6	173g
Overall	0.275	0.783	28	339g

3 Corbin Carroll L 0.825

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.243	0.810	50	268g
Hot (80°+)	0.258	0.879	16	90g
at Chase Field	0.276	0.914	34	190g
Overall	0.251	0.825	66	381g

4 Gabriel Moreno R 0.768

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.266	0.750	15	159g
Hot (80°+)	0.297	0.790	4	58g
at Chase Field	0.257	0.723	6	115g
Overall	0.276	0.768	20	236g

5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 0.711

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.244	0.688	26	200g
Hot (80°+)	0.235	0.654	9	70g
at Chase Field	0.236	0.681	20	147g
Overall	0.259	0.711	38	296g

6 Max Kepler L 0.679

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.232	0.679	23	193g
Hot (80°+)	0.212	0.658	10	57g
at Chase Field	0.067	0.133	0	4g
Overall	0.231	0.679	26	238g

7 Nolan Arenado R 0.693

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.252	0.692	25	238g
Hot (80°+)	0.288	0.788	18	133g
at Chase Field	0.255	0.738	6	43g
Overall	0.253	0.693	36	337g

8 Pavin Smith L 0.794

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.242	0.782	16	131g
Hot (80°+)	0.243	0.841	3	25g
at Chase Field	0.246	0.745	7	86g
Overall	0.249	0.794	18	168g

9 Tommy Troy R 0.684

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.156	0.520	2	22g
Hot (80°+)	0.222	0.556	0	2g
at Chase Field	0.308	0.859	1	13g
Overall	0.228	0.684	3	30g

Injured List

SF (9 on IL)

Daniel Susac C Injured 10-Day
Harrison Bader CF Injured 10-Day
José Buttó P Injured 60-Day
Jason Foley P Injured 60-Day
Randy Rodríguez P Injured 60-Day
Keaton Winn P Injured 15-Day
Hayden Birdsong P Injured 60-Day
Joel Peguero P Injured 60-Day
Rowan Wick P Injured 60-Day

AZ (10 on IL)

James McCann C Injured 10-Day
Corbin Burnes P Injured 60-Day
A.J. Puk P Injured 60-Day
Michael Soroka P Injured 15-Day
Jordan Lawlar LF Injured 10-Day
Blake Walston P Injured 60-Day
Cristian Mena P Injured 60-Day
Ryne Nelson P Injured 60-Day
Justin Martinez P Injured 60-Day
Andrew Saalfrank P Injured 60-Day