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MIA

Miami Marlins

Tue, Jun 30

8:40 PM ET

COL

Colorado Rockies

49% Win Probability 51%

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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.25 · temp ×1.060 · expected total 12.0

MIA starter Locked

Eury Pérez

4.41 ERA · 9.8 K/9

starter 4.67 R/9 over ~5.2 ip

bullpen 3.60 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 5.59 runs

COL starter Locked

Starter TBA

starter 4.30 R/9 over ~4.8 ip

bullpen 5.43 R/9 for the rest

expected to allow 6.41 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

COL — home · vs RHP · warm

Win %

56% +5%

league 51%

Avg total

9.1 +0.5

league 8.6

YRFI

48% -1%

league 49%

Scored first

54% +4%

league 50%

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Head to Head 2026 season

MIA

3 games

5.7 avg runs

COL

Team Data (season)

MIA		COL
44-40	Record	33-51
4.27	Runs / g	4.61
4.15	Runs allowed / g	5.67
49%	Scored first	40%
38%	Cover -1.5	26%
63%	Cover +1.5	54%

Form & Market Trends

how often each market hit · L10 / this season / last season

MIA Miami Marlins n 10/84/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	80%	52%	49%
Cover -1.5	60%	38%	35%
Cover +1.5	100%	63%	62%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	70%	45%	36%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	30%	51%	50%
Team over 4.5	40%	36%	44%
Team F5 over 2.5	40%	36%	37%
Run in 1st (RFI)	40%	50%	51%
Extra innings	0%	5%	9%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	60%	45%	41%
Race to 4	70%	48%	40%
Race to 5	40%	30%	32%
Race to 6	30%	24%	23%
Race to 7	10%	21%	15%

COL Colorado Rockies n 10/84/162

Winner & spread

	L10	Szn	Prev
Win	50%	39%	27%
Cover -1.5	20%	26%	15%
Cover +1.5	70%	54%	41%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread)	30%	35%	25%

Totals

	L10	Szn	Prev
Over 8.5 (game)	50%	60%	56%
Team over 4.5	50%	40%	30%
Team F5 over 2.5	20%	42%	28%
Run in 1st (RFI)	60%	62%	55%
Extra innings	10%	6%	4%

Race to N runs (first to score)

	L10	Szn	Prev
Race to 3	20%	40%	25%
Race to 4	20%	32%	15%
Race to 5	10%	24%	14%
Race to 6	10%	20%	14%
Race to 7	20%	21%	8%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIA Miami Marlins Probable

1 Otto Lopez R 0.720

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.255	0.659	4	62g
at Coors Field	0.276	0.792	1	7g
Overall	0.276	0.720	27	343g

2 Xavier Edwards S 0.757

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.329	0.858	3	52g
at Coors Field	no games
Overall	0.298	0.757	10	293g

3 Esteury Ruiz R 0.752

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.235	0.588	0	11g
at Coors Field	no games
Overall	0.232	0.752	7	97g

4 Heriberto Hernández R 0.741

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.244	0.681	3	27g
at Coors Field	0.600	1.914	1	3g
Overall	0.246	0.741	18	142g

5 Kyle Stowers L 0.783

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.333	0.949	8	48g
at Coors Field	0.471	1.294	1	4g
Overall	0.252	0.783	36	246g

6 Leo Jiménez R 0.554

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.182	0.574	3	22g
at Coors Field	no games
Overall	0.201	0.554	5	113g

7 Jakob Marsee L 0.701

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.241	0.851	4	16g
at Coors Field	0.286	0.762	0	3g
Overall	0.237	0.701	9	137g

8 Javier Sanoja R 0.665

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.200	0.490	0	35g
at Coors Field	0.462	1.077	0	3g
Overall	0.247	0.665	8	199g

9 Joe Mack L 0.693

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
Hot (80°+)	0.273	0.930	1	4g
at Coors Field	no games
Overall	0.250	0.693	4	41g

COL Colorado Rockies Probable

1 Jake McCarthy L 0.724

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.253	0.717	17	204g
Hot (80°+)	0.240	0.602	1	50g
at Coors Field	0.316	0.857	4	40g
Overall	0.271	0.724	18	278g

2 Mickey Moniak L 0.759

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.250	0.764	47	254g
Hot (80°+)	0.249	0.739	15	89g
at Coors Field	0.305	0.971	24	97g
Overall	0.249	0.759	50	308g

3 Hunter Goodman R 0.798

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.248	0.796	49	204g
Hot (80°+)	0.277	0.919	33	104g
at Coors Field	0.259	0.809	31	143g
Overall	0.250	0.798	69	292g

4 TJ Rumfield L 0.854

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.300	0.872	9	62g
Hot (80°+)	0.324	1.025	5	19g
at Coors Field	0.284	0.846	7	39g
Overall	0.294	0.854	12	81g

5 Cole Carrigg S 0.897

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.207	0.792	1	10g
Hot (80°+)	0.250	0.806	1	10g
at Coors Field	0.346	1.049	1	8g
Overall	0.268	0.897	3	17g

6 Troy Johnston L 0.789

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.313	0.809	6	91g
Hot (80°+)	0.243	0.706	2	25g
at Coors Field	0.341	0.858	1	39g
Overall	0.303	0.789	7	120g

7 Kyle Karros R 0.675

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.241	0.684	5	92g
Hot (80°+)	0.267	0.745	2	33g
at Coors Field	0.237	0.691	3	55g
Overall	0.242	0.675	6	122g

8 Ezequiel Tovar R 0.705

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.248	0.707	34	237g
Hot (80°+)	0.286	0.829	22	113g
at Coors Field	0.279	0.777	21	158g
Overall	0.252	0.705	41	330g

9 Edouard Julien L 0.618

Split	AVG	OPS	HR	n
vs RHP	0.206	0.603	12	178g
Hot (80°+)	0.207	0.483	0	36g
at Coors Field	0.223	0.572	0	34g
Overall	0.212	0.618	13	227g

Injured List

MIA (7 on IL)

Liam Hicks C Injured 10-Day
Ronny Henriquez P Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi P Injured 60-Day
Robby Snelling P Injured 60-Day
Adam Mazur P Injured 60-Day
Janson Junk P Injured 15-Day
Josh Ekness P Injured 60-Day

COL (10 on IL)

Jaden Hill P Injured 15-Day
Jose Quintana P Injured 60-Day
Tanner Gordon P Injured 15-Day
Brenton Doyle CF Injured 10-Day
Kris Bryant DH Injured 60-Day
Blas Castaño P Injured 15-Day
Chase Dollander P Injured 60-Day
Welinton Herrera P Injured 60-Day
Pierson Ohl P Injured 60-Day
McCade Brown P Injured 60-Day