predicted sports
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← Games Daikin Park
MIN logo
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Tue, Jun 30
8:10 PM ET
HOU logo
HOU
Houston Astros
59% Win Probability 41%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.98 · temp ×1.048 · expected total 10.0
MIN starter Locked
Joe Ryan
3.18 ERA · 10.4 K/9
starter 3.89 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 5.89 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.79 runs
HOU starter Locked
Mike Burrows
5.48 ERA · 7.3 K/9
starter 5.28 R/9 over ~5.5 ip
bullpen 4.77 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.20 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
MIN
3 games
5.7 avg runs
1
HOU

Team Data (season)

MINHOU
40-45Record42-44
4.85Runs / g4.50
5.20Runs allowed / g4.99
52%Scored first51%
36%Cover -1.538%
62%Cover +1.553%

Form & Market Trends

MIN Minnesota Twins n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 47% 43%
Cover -1.5 30% 36% 34%
Cover +1.5 70% 62% 60%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 40% 47% 40%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 56% 49%
Team over 4.5 50% 49% 41%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 51% 36%
Run in 1st (RFI) 70% 56% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 51% 43%
Race to 4 40% 47% 38%
Race to 5 30% 34% 32%
Race to 6 30% 24% 23%
Race to 7 30% 19% 17%
HOU Houston Astros n 10/86/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 49% 54%
Cover -1.5 50% 38% 37%
Cover +1.5 70% 53% 64%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 36% 41%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 56% 45%
Team over 4.5 40% 41% 39%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 44% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 60% 45%
Extra innings 20% 10% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 40% 43%
Race to 4 30% 36% 40%
Race to 5 20% 26% 35%
Race to 6 20% 21% 28%
Race to 7 40% 23% 20%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

MIN Minnesota Twins Probable

1 Trevor Larnach L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.254 0.753 36 271g
Hot (80°+) 0.261 0.777 12 76g
at Daikin Park 0.000 0.250 0 2g
Overall 0.261 0.757 37 323g
2 Brooks Lee S 0.669
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.249 0.701 24 199g
Hot (80°+) 0.245 0.655 7 78g
at Daikin Park 0.455 1.455 2 3g
Overall 0.237 0.669 33 270g
3 Kody Clemens L 0.726
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.733 34 187g
Hot (80°+) 0.204 0.654 8 63g
at Daikin Park 0.000 0.000 0 2g
Overall 0.224 0.726 37 237g
4 Josh Bell S 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.248 0.731 38 262g
Hot (80°+) 0.248 0.729 12 85g
at Daikin Park 0.250 0.750 0 3g
Overall 0.243 0.720 50 367g
5 Royce Lewis R 0.696
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.237 0.700 24 169g
Hot (80°+) 0.221 0.626 8 72g
at Daikin Park 0.500 1.750 1 1g
Overall 0.230 0.696 36 239g
6 Victor Caratini S 0.709
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.262 0.722 19 196g
Hot (80°+) 0.323 0.893 5 35g
at Daikin Park 0.224 0.623 5 54g
Overall 0.256 0.709 26 264g
7 Ryan Kreidler R 0.608
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.204 0.610 4 64g
Hot (80°+) 0.169 0.426 0 33g
at Daikin Park no games
Overall 0.200 0.608 6 93g
8 Tristan Gray L 0.631
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.229 0.644 7 80g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.659 2 28g
at Daikin Park no games
Overall 0.227 0.631 7 99g
9 Luke Keaschall R 0.707
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.280 0.744 4 89g
Hot (80°+) 0.290 0.742 1 26g
at Daikin Park no games
Overall 0.268 0.707 6 128g

HOU Houston Astros Probable

1 Jose Altuve R 0.762
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.257 0.724 37 274g
Hot (80°+) 0.306 0.865 9 42g
at Daikin Park 0.279 0.822 22 109g
Overall 0.273 0.762 54 372g
2 Yordan Alvarez L 0.952
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.303 0.960 50 206g
Hot (80°+) 0.298 1.010 8 22g
at Daikin Park 0.339 1.039 14 68g
Overall 0.303 0.952 66 281g
3 Isaac Paredes R 0.756
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.241 0.741 39 256g
Hot (80°+) 0.224 0.682 7 49g
at Daikin Park 0.248 0.807 17 91g
Overall 0.247 0.756 50 334g
4 Christian Walker R 0.755
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.239 0.752 56 267g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.764 13 49g
at Daikin Park 0.210 0.655 15 115g
Overall 0.243 0.755 72 368g
5 Taylor Trammell L 0.668
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.219 0.656 5 79g
Hot (80°+) 0.143 0.548 0 10g
at Daikin Park 0.226 0.617 1 39g
Overall 0.223 0.668 5 97g
6 Cam Smith R 0.659
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.215 0.620 11 162g
Hot (80°+) 0.284 0.795 3 22g
at Daikin Park 0.228 0.666 8 108g
Overall 0.229 0.659 18 218g
7 Joey Loperfido L 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.699 8 119g
Hot (80°+) 0.284 0.756 3 30g
at Daikin Park 0.275 0.726 0 15g
Overall 0.241 0.673 9 160g
8 Nick Allen R 0.529
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.197 0.471 0 151g
Hot (80°+) 0.228 0.571 0 54g
at Daikin Park 0.212 0.508 0 21g
Overall 0.216 0.529 2 213g
9 Christian Vázquez R 0.569
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.231 0.624 11 154g
Hot (80°+) 0.210 0.537 2 41g
at Daikin Park 0.174 0.524 2 31g
Overall 0.210 0.569 14 213g

Injured List

MIN (8 on IL)
HOU (9 on IL)