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CIN logo
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Tue, Jun 30
7:40 PM ET
MIL logo
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
44% Win Probability 56%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.96 · temp ×1.066 · expected total 9.6
CIN starter Locked
Rhett Lowder
4.81 ERA · 7.4 K/9
starter 4.66 R/9 over ~4.9 ip
bullpen 5.18 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.02 runs
MIL starter Locked
Brandon Sproat
5.43 ERA · 9.4 K/9
starter 4.88 R/9 over ~4.8 ip
bullpen 4.02 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.60 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
CIN
3 games
5.3 avg runs
3
MIL

Team Data (season)

CINMIL
39-43Record50-31
4.27Runs / g5.16
4.89Runs allowed / g3.68
40%Scored first58%
34%Cover -1.547%
60%Cover +1.575%

Form & Market Trends

CIN Cincinnati Reds n 10/82/164
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 48% 51%
Cover -1.5 40% 34% 37%
Cover +1.5 60% 60% 64%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 43% 40%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 61% 44%
Team over 4.5 40% 40% 45%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 40% 40%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 49% 49%
Extra innings 10% 12% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 40% 49%
Race to 4 30% 40% 41%
Race to 5 30% 35% 36%
Race to 6 30% 29% 29%
Race to 7 10% 18% 20%
MIL Milwaukee Brewers n 10/81/171
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 62% 58%
Cover -1.5 30% 47% 42%
Cover +1.5 80% 75% 71%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 50% 53% 48%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 42% 46%
Team over 4.5 30% 52% 47%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 53% 46%
Run in 1st (RFI) 20% 49% 46%
Extra innings 20% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 40% 52% 57%
Race to 4 30% 51% 47%
Race to 5 30% 42% 41%
Race to 6 30% 33% 32%
Race to 7 10% 21% 26%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

CIN Cincinnati Reds Probable

1 Elly De La Cruz S 0.792
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.264 0.795 38 285g
Hot (80°+) 0.267 0.769 11 132g
at American Family Field 0.200 0.698 2 13g
Overall 0.261 0.792 59 387g
2 Sal Stewart R 0.809
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.786 16 82g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 1.148 8 20g
at American Family Field 0.500 1.750 1 1g
Overall 0.257 0.809 20 102g
3 Spencer Steer R 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.235 0.720 38 281g
Hot (80°+) 0.240 0.761 21 130g
at American Family Field 0.205 0.788 3 12g
Overall 0.233 0.720 54 385g
4 JJ Bleday L 0.760
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.227 0.745 35 238g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.759 9 76g
at American Family Field 0.100 0.282 0 3g
Overall 0.234 0.760 47 311g
5 Dane Myers R 0.666
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.223 0.574 4 143g
Hot (80°+) 0.248 0.692 3 45g
at American Family Field 0.200 0.833 1 3g
Overall 0.244 0.666 12 212g
6 Noelvi Marte R 0.656
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.706 19 142g
Hot (80°+) 0.239 0.681 12 87g
at American Family Field 0.125 0.333 0 6g
Overall 0.233 0.656 22 188g
7 Tyler Stephenson R 0.739
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.234 0.685 23 211g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.734 15 103g
at American Family Field 0.190 0.653 1 8g
Overall 0.242 0.739 38 292g
8 Matt McLain R 0.640
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.207 0.615 15 167g
Hot (80°+) 0.228 0.679 8 71g
at American Family Field 0.143 0.437 0 5g
Overall 0.213 0.640 23 225g
9 Edwin Arroyo S 0.640
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.286 0.661 0 18g
Hot (80°+) 0.375 0.875 0 5g
at American Family Field no games
Overall 0.279 0.640 0 22g

MIL Milwaukee Brewers Probable

1 Jackson Chourio R 0.803
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.276 0.810 43 232g
Hot (80°+) 0.326 0.971 18 70g
at American Family Field 0.253 0.792 35 176g
Overall 0.278 0.803 57 338g
2 Brice Turang L 0.743
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.278 0.779 28 285g
Hot (80°+) 0.231 0.654 9 86g
at American Family Field 0.263 0.742 17 206g
Overall 0.267 0.743 37 400g
3 William Contreras R 0.790
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.270 0.768 33 274g
Hot (80°+) 0.275 0.817 15 82g
at American Family Field 0.281 0.822 28 203g
Overall 0.275 0.790 51 394g
4 Andrew Vaughn R 0.727
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.249 0.687 25 218g
Hot (80°+) 0.266 0.747 9 65g
at American Family Field 0.279 0.865 8 60g
Overall 0.256 0.727 37 313g
5 Gary Sánchez R 0.722
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.211 0.673 10 93g
Hot (80°+) 0.253 0.752 5 36g
at American Family Field 0.224 0.724 9 70g
Overall 0.223 0.722 24 168g
6 Blake Perkins S 0.630
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.613 5 146g
Hot (80°+) 0.346 0.859 3 52g
at American Family Field 0.191 0.535 3 114g
Overall 0.228 0.630 10 234g
7 Sal Frelick L 0.686
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.266 0.683 13 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.260 0.642 4 81g
at American Family Field 0.273 0.741 14 194g
Overall 0.266 0.686 18 375g
8 Cooper Pratt R 0.567
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.235 0.644 0 6g
Hot (80°+) 0.429 0.857 0 2g
at American Family Field 0.222 0.611 0 6g
Overall 0.222 0.567 0 12g
9 Joey Ortiz R 0.624
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.228 0.623 11 252g
Hot (80°+) 0.231 0.624 5 78g
at American Family Field 0.207 0.608 12 189g
Overall 0.224 0.624 19 371g

Injured List

CIN (7 on IL)
MIL (9 on IL)