predicted sports
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STL logo
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Tue, Jun 30
7:15 PM ET
ATL logo
ATL
Atlanta Braves
42% Win Probability 58%
● Free pick of the day Preliminary · probable lineups
Base
ATL
58%
Total Model
Under
53%
line 9.5
RFI
NRFI
54%
1st inning
Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×0.93 · temp ×1.072 · expected total 8.4
STL starter Locked
Matthew Liberatore
5.56 ERA · 8.1 K/9
starter 5.35 R/9 over ~5.0 ip
bullpen 4.72 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.06 runs
ATL starter Locked
Martín Pérez
3.00 ERA · 7.5 K/9
starter 3.67 R/9 over ~5.2 ip
bullpen 2.99 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.38 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

ATL — home · vs LHP · hot · night
5 games
Win %
100.0% +50.0%
league 50.0%
Avg total
7.0 -1.86
league 8.86
YRFI
60.0% +11.0%
league 49.0%
Scored first
80.0% +30.0%
league 50.0%

Small sample — treat as a curiosity.

Refine in Explore →
STL — away · vs LHP · hot · night
5 games
Win %
60.0% +10.0%
league 50.0%
Avg total
9.0 +0.14
league 8.86
YRFI
40.0% -9.0%
league 49.0%
Scored first
60.0% +10.0%
league 50.0%

Small sample — treat as a curiosity.

Refine in Explore →

Head to Head

No head-to-head meetings recorded this season.

Team Data (season)

STLATL
43-38Record49-33
4.47Runs / g4.76
4.57Runs allowed / g3.68
56%Scored first54%
35%Cover -1.548%
67%Cover +1.572%

Form & Market Trends

STL St. Louis Cardinals n 10/81/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 53% 48%
Cover -1.5 10% 35% 32%
Cover +1.5 50% 67% 61%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 44% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 46% 51%
Team over 4.5 30% 49% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 30% 47% 38%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 46% 51%
Extra innings 0% 11% 7%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 20% 47% 40%
Race to 4 10% 36% 35%
Race to 5 10% 37% 31%
Race to 6 10% 31% 26%
Race to 7 10% 20% 19%
ATL Atlanta Braves n 10/82/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 60% 47%
Cover -1.5 10% 48% 34%
Cover +1.5 60% 72% 69%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 30% 45% 38%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 51% 49%
Team over 4.5 20% 50% 41%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 43% 42%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 54% 51%
Extra innings 10% 7% 10%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 50% 41%
Race to 4 20% 48% 40%
Race to 5 0% 41% 33%
Race to 6 10% 35% 28%
Race to 7 0% 27% 23%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

STL St. Louis Cardinals Probable

1 JJ Wetherholt L 0.752
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.230 0.778 4 17g
Hot (80°+) 0.194 0.592 3 16g
at Truist Park no games
Overall 0.265 0.752 12 77g
2 Iván Herrera R 0.798
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.277 0.849 13 73g
Hot (80°+) 0.236 0.655 6 80g
at Truist Park no games
Overall 0.279 0.798 34 260g
3 Alec Burleson L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.247 0.637 6 93g
Hot (80°+) 0.280 0.805 25 141g
at Truist Park 0.423 0.983 1 6g
Overall 0.279 0.778 52 371g
4 Lars Nootbaar L 0.725
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.254 0.750 7 66g
Hot (80°+) 0.237 0.740 13 98g
at Truist Park 0.261 0.958 2 6g
Overall 0.242 0.725 27 264g
5 Masyn Winn R 0.688
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.258 0.694 8 101g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.719 13 139g
at Truist Park 0.333 0.792 0 5g
Overall 0.257 0.688 27 352g
6 Bryan Torres L 0.776
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.500 1.000 0 5g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.792 2 11g
at Truist Park no games
Overall 0.234 0.776 3 20g
7 Blaze Jordan R 0.697
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.353 1.154 1 5g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.641 0 4g
at Truist Park no games
Overall 0.250 0.697 1 14g
8 Nathan Church L 0.640
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.184 0.454 0 19g
Hot (80°+) 0.208 0.562 1 22g
at Truist Park no games
Overall 0.240 0.640 6 90g
9 Pedro Pagés R 0.636
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.238 0.700 10 79g
Hot (80°+) 0.257 0.667 7 81g
at Truist Park 0.308 0.692 0 3g
Overall 0.230 0.636 22 225g

ATL Atlanta Braves Probable

1 Mauricio Dubón R 0.674
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.264 0.717 9 109g
Hot (80°+) 0.298 0.799 7 52g
at Truist Park 0.274 0.767 5 38g
Overall 0.259 0.674 19 350g
2 Michael Harris II L 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.269 0.743 15 108g
Hot (80°+) 0.267 0.763 21 108g
at Truist Park 0.250 0.667 19 168g
Overall 0.266 0.728 51 348g
3 Ozzie Albies S 0.698
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.298 0.805 15 106g
Hot (80°+) 0.249 0.664 9 110g
at Truist Park 0.258 0.694 15 163g
Overall 0.251 0.698 38 340g
4 Matt Olson L 0.826
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.264 0.833 28 124g
Hot (80°+) 0.274 0.836 28 148g
at Truist Park 0.263 0.787 30 200g
Overall 0.262 0.826 78 408g
5 Drake Baldwin L 0.800
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.292 0.870 10 49g
Hot (80°+) 0.247 0.716 7 55g
at Truist Park 0.278 0.817 16 89g
Overall 0.267 0.800 33 183g
6 Austin Riley R 0.719
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.219 0.609 9 94g
Hot (80°+) 0.259 0.767 17 102g
at Truist Park 0.270 0.777 21 134g
Overall 0.245 0.719 43 294g
7 Joey Bart R 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.239 0.767 11 62g
Hot (80°+) 0.253 0.683 4 64g
at Truist Park 0.111 0.269 0 5g
Overall 0.254 0.720 20 199g
8 Eli White R 0.665
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.185 0.568 5 64g
Hot (80°+) 0.237 0.738 6 53g
at Truist Park 0.211 0.595 6 87g
Overall 0.235 0.665 14 191g
9 Ha-Seong Kim R 0.633
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.182 0.510 2 72g
Hot (80°+) 0.216 0.605 3 55g
at Truist Park 0.171 0.450 1 32g
Overall 0.215 0.633 16 195g

Injured List

STL (2 on IL)
ATL (10 on IL)